With his path to victory narrowing in the closing stretch of New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) had placed his hopes for a come-from-behind win on the state’s sizable Jewish community, a politically active voting bloc he saw as a crucial part of his coalition in a crowded race with overlapping constituencies and likely low turnout.

The moderate Jewish Democrat worked to court Jewish voters by touting his pro-Israel record and commitment to fighting antisemitism. Weeks before the election, he received a promising endorsement from the Lakewood Vaad, a coalition of influential Orthodox rabbis. The group, which represents the state’s largest Orthodox bloc, has not traditionally taken sides in primaries but urged Democratic as well as unaffiliated voters to back Gottheimer, promising to deliver thousands of voters he and his allies saw as one of their best chances to make the difference in a close race.

In the end, however, the veteran congressman came in fourth place in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, losing to a fellow House member, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), by 22 points, even as she had claimed only a third of the vote in the six-way race.

Gottheimer’s poor overall performance across the state came in spite of relatively strong turnout in Lakewood, where he won more than 5,000 votes from the Orthodox community, including several unaffiliated backers, according to Shlomo Schorr, director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office.

With nearly 3,000 registered Democrats in the Orthodox community in Lakewood, Gottheimer’s Vaad endorsement helped him secure those votes and to claim additional support from unaffiliated residents, though hardly as many as his allies had hoped to attract: Lakewood has more than 20,000 unaffiliated Orthodox voters — suggesting that only a small fraction of them had declared as Democrats in order to vote in the primary.

Even if he had sought to mobilize those Orthodox voters earlier in the primary, Gottheimer still would have come up short. “None of that would have made a difference,” Schorr told Jewish Insider, given the outcome on Tuesday. “We just don’t have the kind of numbers to flip such a lopsided race, obviously.”

“Had Gottheimer been competitive with Sherrill in the rest of the state, his advantage among the Orthodox community could well have put him over the top,” Dan Cassino, a political scientist and pollster at Fairleigh Dickinson University, said. “Orthodox voters are a reliable source of votes, and Gottheimer put a lot of effort into securing their support. In a game of inches, that could have been decisive, but this race wound up not being a game of inches.”

Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, said that “Gottheimer was resourceful and smart to reach out to the religious communities of New Jersey — and it did bear fruit for him.”

“But fundamentally, he needed a lot more than those handful of communities could deliver for him,” Rasmussen told JI.

Dan Cassino, a political scientist and pollster at Fairleigh Dickinson University, agreed. “Had Gottheimer been competitive with Sherrill in the rest of the state, his advantage among the Orthodox community could well have put him over the top,” he said. “Orthodox voters are a reliable source of votes, and Gottheimer put a lot of effort into securing their support. In a game of inches, that could have been decisive, but this race wound up not being a game of inches.”

In Lakewood, a deeply conservative community where Republicans vastly outweigh Democrats, Gottheimer had always been severely limited in his ability to claim a decisive share of the electorate, particularly in a race he lost by more than 175,000 votes. By contrast, Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee backed by President Donald Trump, won Lakewood with more than 9,500 votes. In 2021, he came unexpectedly close to unseating outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, with strong support from the community, even as the Vaad had endorsed the incumbent last cycle.

“Considering he lost by 175,000 votes, there’s not much more he could have done,” a New Jersey political strategist and Jewish community activist said of Gottheimer, adding that the election results showed that the Lakewood Vaad is more capable of turning out significant votes than it was in the past — for second-time Republican nominee Ciatarelli. 

Lakewood helped deliver Ocean County for Ciattarelli, the strategist said, even as the county GOP chair endorsed one of Ciattarelli’s opponents. “That would have been a great day, just good news all around. But the Gottheimer thing kind of leaves people with a bad taste in their mouth.”

Meanwhile, a widely touted nonpartisan effort to register Jewish voters for the Democratic primary succeeded in persuading only a small minority of Lakewood voters to change their party affiliation, said Schorr, who pegged the number at some 250 voters. “It’s very difficult to get people, especially Orthodox Jews, to become registered Democrats,” Schorr told JI. “They’ll vote, maybe, in the election — but to change their affiliation from Republican to Democrat, that you’re not going to get them to do.”

The results raise questions about what basis had existed for the promises and expectations of that re-registration and turnout effort, according to the strategist, who noted the Lakewood votes simply never were up for grabs. “There aren’t a lot of Democratic votes in Lakewood, in the Orthodox community, to be had,” the strategist explained, while adding that Ciattarelli has worked hard to make connections and appeal to those voters.

A local Democratic strategist argued that the disappointing results of the Orthodox turnout effort need to prompt a re-assessment of the strategy.

Even as Gottheimer won his home county of Bergen in northern Jersey, he underperformed in Orthodox communities there and elsewhere in the state, such as Edison and Cherry Hill, said Schorr. “I think they could have done better just from the initial numbers I’ve seen,” he told JI. “The Lakewood area delivered, but other places did not.”

“For Josh, it was a challenge,” a Jewish leader said of Gottheimer. “It wasn’t enough for Josh, but at the end of the day, a pro-Israel and well-known friend of the Jewish community was still elected in part because of the Jewish vote in the state,” the Jewish leader said of Sherrill. 

Notwithstanding his strong record on Israel and antisemitism, across the wider Jewish community, Gottheimer also faced competition from a range of primary rivals including Sherill, former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, each of whom has, to varying degrees, built relationships with Jewish leaders during their tenures.

The results indicated that Sherrill overperformed and Gottheimer did not see a strong turnout surge, said a Jewish leader in the state who believes that many Jewish community members are now disillusioned with the results. Still, the Jewish leader expects Sherilll will maintain a positive relationship with the Jewish community going forward.

“For Josh, it was a challenge,” another Jewish leader said of Gottheimer, who sought to draw relatively minor contrasts with Sherrill on Jewish issues during the race, as she has called for increased federal action against antisemitism and demonstrated a largely pro-Israel record while in Congress. “It wasn’t enough for Josh, but at the end of the day, a pro-Israel and well-known friend of the Jewish community was still elected in part because of the Jewish vote in the state,” the Jewish leader said of Sherrill. 

Looking toward November, a Jewish leader said that moderate Democratic voters could be up for grabs for Ciatarelli, as many Jewish voters have been feeling disenchanted with the direction of the Democratic Party.

He is also likely to draw strong support from the Orthodox community, where in Lakewood alone there are around 30,000 registered Republicans.

As New Jersey’s competitive gubernatorial primary takes place today, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) looks like the front-runner in the crowded Democratic field but without much public polling and a late flurry of advertising, there’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to who will emerge as the nominee in the six-way race.  

Sherrill, a military veteran who has represented a suburban north New Jersey seat since 2018, is the favorite of many Democratic Party officials and has been leading in the limited public polling of the race. The congresswoman has also been one of the top fundraisers in the field, along with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), who has been courting support from the state’s sizable Jewish community.

“Josh has been betting on the Jewish community coming out strong, and there is a realistic possibility that if new voters emerge in places like Lakewood, which is the fifth-largest city in New Jersey now, it could play a decisive role,” one Jewish community activist, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss the primary, told Jewish Insider on Monday. 

But even as Gottheimer won a key endorsement last month from the Lakewood Vaad, an influential coalition of rabbis from the state’s largest Orthodox Jewish community, other observers expressed some skepticism that the moderate congressman’s strategy of consolidating Jewish support will be enough for him to prevail in the primary to replace Gov. Phil Murphy, a term-limited Democrat.

“I just don’t know if it’s going to be able to be enough to give him the edge,” said Shlomo Schorr, the director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office. “It was maybe a bit too late to get the turnout that they had wanted and needed.”

Though Schorr said that Gottheimer’s strong showing in early voting so far in major Orthodox communities such as Teaneck and Lakewood could peel support away from Sherrill, he also speculated that it could help to fuel another candidate, Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, running as a progressive-minded anti-establishment challenger. 

Fulop, a Jewish Democrat whose campaign is appealing to progressive, younger voters, has said “every single person has a pathway to win.” He has faced backlash from Jewish leaders for opposing legislation to enshrine the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism into state law, though he later walked back his remarks in a mailer aimed at Jewish voters.

Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark whose coalition in some ways overlaps with Fulop, has experienced a late surge thanks largely to his high-profile arrest last month outside an immigration detention facility in New Jersey, even as his record of commentary on key issues such as Israel and antisemitism has raised concerns among many Jewish leaders in the state.

The other Democrats in the primary include Stephen Sweeney, a moderate who served as president of the state Senate, and Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association who has drawn significant outside support from a super PAC spending more than $8 million to boost his campaign. 

Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman backed by President Donald Trump, is favored to clinch the Republican nomination. He came close to unseating Murphy in 2021, winning Lakewood in the process. The Vaad has also endorsed his campaign this cycle.

The results of the Democratic primary are more volatile, particularly without the so-called county line that had bestowed establishment-backed candidates with preferential ballot placement.

“With no line, all bets are off,” said a Jewish activist who is not taking sides in the race, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address the primary. “It’s all turnout. I still think it’s Mikie’s to lose. Her team is confident, as is the candidate. But I guess they all are.”

As Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) faces attacks from the media and fellow lawmakers in the Democratic Party, he hit back at members of his own party on Tuesday in remarks to a group of bipartisan activists in Washington.

Speaking to members of NORPAC, a pro-Israel advocacy organization, Fetterman offered some of his sharpest criticism yet of the Democratic Party’s approach to Israel after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

“Israel and your community deserves much better from my party,” Fetterman said, earning loud applause. 

He described how American universities have produced a “monoculture that produced, actually, rampant antisemitism,” and called to address it — but suggested Democrats are not interested in doing so. 

“We have to address that. But in my party, you will pay a price,” said Fetterman. “That’s OK. I think that’s what defines character … that you’re going to support things even if it moves against your own political interest.”

Several recent reports have suggested that Fetterman is struggling with mental health challenges, which Fetterman has denied. 

Jake Rakov, a former congressional staffer for Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) who is now challenging Sherman for his Los Angeles-area congressional seat, has plenty of criticism aimed at his old boss. But one issue on which they appear largely in step is support for the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Rakov, 37, told Jewish Insider that the Democratic Party needs “a new generation to step up if we want to get anything done in Washington.” He’s one of a series of young insurgent candidates delivering a similar message as they challenge longtime Democratic incumbents whom they characterize as complacent and disconnected.

The former Sherman staffer worked for the California congressman for a year in 2017 as his deputy communications director. He said that he feels Sherman, who has served in the House since 1997, has failed to adapt his talking points and approach to the second Trump term, adding that he doesn’t feel Sherman is bringing the “energy” needed to challenge President Donald Trump and is not responsive, accessible or accountable to constituents.

Rakov’s campaign pitch is light on policy specifics, centered around a pledge to push for 10-year term limits for members of Congress, to not take corporate PAC funding and to hold monthly in-person town halls. But he told JI his focus areas would include science and technology policy, cybersecurity, transportation and infrastructure issues. 

Sherman’s campaign is indicating he’s not particularly worried about the challenge.

“Congressman Brad Sherman typically has half a dozen challengers every two years. Democrats, Republicans and others,” a Sherman campaign spokesperson said. “Mr. Rakov may be the first who apparently has never voted in Sherman’s district prior to announcing his candidacy. We welcome his entry into the race. Rakov has not identified any single one of Congressman Sherman’s thousands of votes that he disagrees with. So, at least there is an important aspect of the job that he believes Sherman has performed flawlessly.”

Sherman, who is Jewish, represents one of the most Jewish districts in the country and is a vocal and relatively hawkish supporter of Israel. Rakov, whose husband is Jewish, did not indicate any significant breaks with his former boss on that issue.

“I’m a strong supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship. I understand the need to maintain that relationship and I would also be a proactive advocate in Congress for continuing to strengthen the vital allyship between our two countries,” Rakov said. “I see the need of that, especially in the state of the Middle East right now, for having such a close ally in the region.”

He said that he supports continued U.S. aid to Israel, explaining Israel “has the right to defend itself against terrorists and those who want to attack it.”

Rakov traveled to Israel with his husband shortly before the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks to visit his husband’s family. Rakov described it as an “absolutely amazing experience” seeing how “diverse” and “engaged” the Israeli people are.

“It was just amazing to see the culture and the Old City [of Jerusalem], all the history there, and everything was very awe-inspiring,” Rakov said.

Rakov said he was also struck by the conversations Israelis were having among themselves about the Israeli government and the country.

Rakov said he wants to see a path forward to reach peace and a negotiated two-state solution, and said the U.S. should play a central role in driving toward that goal.

Rakov’s support for Israel separates him from some of the other prominent challengers going after longtime Democratic incumbents, several of whom have carved out positions to the incumbents’ left on Israel policy.

Rakov also said that it’s in the U.S.’ interest to ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons. He said he doesn’t have the expertise to discuss the possibility of military intervention, but said that he supports diplomatic overtures and providing support for the Iranian people to achieve democracy and a “functioning government that supports their rights.”

The district also has a significant Iranian-American diaspora population.

At home in the U.S., Rakov said that he wants to see better education and dialogue to combat antisemitism, especially on college campuses, instead of the punitive measures that the Trump administration has pursued, such as cutting off funding to schools. He said the administration should instead be focusing on “adding resources to educate students about antisemitism and discrimination in all forms.”

“If there are bad actors and if they violate the law, that’s very obviously not a peaceful protest or a First Amendment protected thing,” Rakov said. “I disagree with the idea of defunding universities or cutting back funding. I think this doesn’t solve the problem at hand.”