For watchers of the U.S.-Israel relationship, the events of the last few days have had a familiar feel. On Friday, President Donald Trump suggested at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner that Iran would “love to make a deal. I don’t think they’re ready to. I don’t think it’s time yet, but I’m willing to listen.” Today, the president will meet at the White House with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the countries weigh a military escalation with Iran.

The similarities to the dialogue surrounding Iran earlier this year are striking. In early February, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, “Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly.” Days later, Trump would meet at the White House with Netanyahu for talks focused on Iran. Weeks after that meeting, the U.S. and Israel launched joint military strikes against the Islamic Republic, kicking off a six-week war.

And despite the similarities around today’s meeting — which comes hours before the funeral of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — much has changed.

In the U.S., there is growing opposition among Americans to renewed military action against Iran — a sentiment that extends to some top military officials, including, reportedly, CENTCOM head Adm. Brad Cooper.

Public perception of Israel — and Israelis — has hit its most negative point in years, with Gen Z Americans across the political spectrum having significantly more favorable views of Palestinians than Israelis. 

The numbers demonstrate the degree to which opinions on Israel and Iran — and the U.S. role in the region — have shifted in the five months since the war began. The domestic politics in the U.S. vis-a-vis Iran look very different than they did during the last Trump-Netanyahu meeting.

Among Israelis, there is little confidence that Trump is acting with Israel’s security needs in mind, with just 28% of those surveyed in an Israel Democracy Institute poll last month saying that they believed the country’s security was a central consideration for Trump.

When Trump and Netanyahu last met, elections in both countries were still a far-off prospect. But with less than four months before both the midterms and Israel’s first election in nearly four years, the calculus has changed.

In Israel, Netanyahu is facing a tough reelection battle as recent polls show former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party making gains on the prime minister and his Likud party. Netanyahu had reportedly spent weeks seeking a meeting with Trump as the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran fell apart and both sides resumed attacks before confirming he’d attend Graham’s funeral — with a Trump meeting to boot. 

The meeting also offers Netanyahu an opportunity to remind Israeli voters of his close relationship with Trump — something no other Israeli candidate can boast. And he’s also seeking a more permanent solution on Iran leading into the election — a tangible win he can tout to Israeli voters, who are overall unhappy with the outcome of the war.

For Trump, the outcome of the midterms is less threatening to his standing, but will likely serve as a referendum on American attitudes toward the war with repercussions extending well into the 2028 presidential race.  

And even as Trump has claimed that he doesn’t care about voter opinions about the war with Iran, the rest of his party — and those looking to shape its direction — will be waiting to see the outcome of the Netanyahu meeting.

With the region on edge, today’s meeting is likely to offer one of the clearest indications as to whether Trump and Netanyahu share the same vision for the future of the Middle East — or whether they’re on increasingly divergent paths.