Sen. Darline Graham’s (R-SC) bid to succeed her late brother in the Senate is facing growing skepticism from Republican operatives and lawmakers who say President Donald Trump’s endorsement is unlikely to spare her from a runoff in South Carolina’s special GOP primary next week. 

Over the last week, six senior GOP campaign operatives and Republican lawmakers told Jewish Insider that they believe a runoff is all but certain after the Aug. 11 special election primary, with most predicting Graham will not be able to clinch a majority of the vote to avert one as her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), did with his June primary victory. 

While Republicans believe Graham will be one of the top two candidates in the race, thus allowing her a spot in the Aug. 25 runoff, they are still unsure whether she will face Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) or Rep. Russell Fry (R-SC) in that contest. Those who spoke to JI expressed skepticism that Graham could win a head-to-head showdown, despite having Trump’s coveted primary endorsement. 

“The sense that this is going to go to a runoff seems pretty clear,” Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who served as communications director for the Republican National Committee and former House Speaker Eric Cantor (R-VA), said. “What happens after that is anyone’s guess.”

“Ultimately, it’s going to be a question of what Republican voters in South Carolina want to do and how they view the new Sen. Graham,” he continued. “You can’t really factor in what she’s done yet, but you know what she says she’s going to do. She doesn’t have a high name ID, although that is increasing every day, whereas the others who are running have much higher name ID and not just necessarily in their districts.”

The uncertainty surrounding the race has caused some to worry about Graham entering a competitive election contest, which will require her to develop a full policy platform and hit the campaign trail as she mourns her brother’s recent death. 

“It’s being said and unsaid by a lot of people on Capitol Hill right now. Up to this point, most people here have been more concerned about her personally than figuring out her political philosophy, asking if it’s fair to her to put her in this situation,” a Republican senator told JI. “This has got so many consequences. I’ve been very concerned about it. The people who express concern the most are still mainly worried about her personally, which is heartwarming, but the stakes are also very high.”

Four sources noted that Trump’s support for Graham did not deter Norman or Fry from entering the contest, nor has it hurt either of their performances in recent primary polling. 

“There really is an appetite for change, but also for someone who is known, who has a proven record,” a GOP campaign source said. “Love them or hate them, folks know what Ralph and Russell’s records look like. Love them or hate them, you know where they stand. Darline is largely an unknown.”

Republican sources pointed to issues around voter turnout, Graham’s ability to fundraise quickly enough on the compressed campaign schedule, her lack of political background or voting record and the possibility of her losing support if portrayed to voters as being anointed to the role. 

Darline Graham should be able to benefit from some of the leftover cash in her brother’s campaign account. Lindsey Graham’s campaign filed a statement with the Federal Election Commission after his death reporting $2.3 million in remaining funds. 

Lindsey Graham’s campaign was able to transfer some of that money to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP campaign arm, for Darline Graham to use for her campaign, according to two sources familiar with direct knowledge of the situation. The figure expected to be transferred is under $1 million, one source confirmed, leaving Darline Graham with a possible cash disadvantage for the primary and the general election, where the Republican nominee will face Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who handily won the Democratic primary in June and has proven to be a strong fundraiser. 

Prior to Lindsey Graham’s passing, Andrews drew attention for outraising the incumbent senator in the first two quarters of 2026. Despite the fundraising success, national Democrats declined to commit resources to the race against Graham, which the Cook Political Report continues to rate as solid Republican even after his death. 

Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) got behind Norman’s campaign before Graham had entered; once she did, she quickly secured her own endorsements from three members of Senate GOP leadership: Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY); Senate Republican Conference Chairman Tom Cotton (R-AR); and Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairwoman Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said after Graham announced her candidacy that he would not be weighing in with an endorsement, though he praised the incumbent senator as a “strong candidate” who “obviously carries on Lindsey’s legacy.” 

Beyond those who have already endorsed her, Graham does not appear to have asked her other Republican colleagues in the Senate for their backing, according to two Republican senators and one senior GOP Senate staffer. The senators suggested that perhaps Graham was not in the right frame of mind to ask about endorsements herself, though both senators expressed surprise that no one from Graham’s campaign had made those overtures on her behalf. 

“Many of us had never met her before. All I knew was how much Lindsey adored her. He talked about her a lot. He referenced her a lot. He’d take her call whenever it happened to be,” a GOP senator told JI of Graham. “But we don’t have a clue how Republican she is. I don’t have the faintest idea what her basic philosophies are.”

“She hasn’t asked me or the members that I’ve talked to,” one GOP senator told JI on condition of anonymity of Graham seeking out endorsements late last week. “If she isn’t asking and nobody is asking on her behalf, she sure as heck won’t get a lot of them. Maybe she’ll get around to that next week now that she’s on the job full time. It’s kind of a pivotal week, I would say.”

Graham has picked up one House endorsement from Rep. William Timmons (R-SC), who opposes Norman’s candidacy, while Norman has been endorsed by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) and former Rep. Bob Good (R-VA). He also has the support of former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who served with Norman in the House. 

The slow drip of congressional endorsements have since ground to a halt, as it became clear that Graham’s surprise campaign launch and Trump’s support for her candidacy had not deterred her Republican opponents or hurt their polling numbers.

“Many of us had never met her before [she was sworn in to serve out the remainder of her brother’s term]. All I knew was how much Lindsey adored her. He talked about her a lot. He referenced her a lot. He’d take her call whenever it happened to be,” a GOP senator told JI of Graham. “But we don’t have a clue how Republican she is. I don’t have the faintest idea what her basic philosophies are.”

“She’s still grieving,” a senior GOP campaign official involved with the race told JI. “Nobody wants to be seen hitting someone whose brother literally just died — and then was vaulted into a very public, very national spotlight — but at some point the gloves are gonna have to come off at least somewhat.”

“I suspect that being through what she’s been through the last couple of weeks, reliving his whole life basically in written word and broadcast and even just storytelling, she’s probably getting a pretty good lesson if she’s still forming her positions,” the senator continued. “I doubt she’s 180 degrees from him, but I don’t know what’s in her heart.”

Several Republicans have expressed concern that voters would respond poorly to the idea of Graham running while mourning the loss of her brother. They also worry about the possibility that the contest turns negative and the consequences of that shift.

“She’s still grieving,” a senior GOP campaign official involved with the race told JI. “Nobody wants to be seen hitting someone whose brother literally just died — and then was vaulted into a very public, very national spotlight — but at some point the gloves are gonna have to come off at least somewhat.”

One Republican senator told JI that they were “afraid it could be a brawl before it’s over, especially if her opponent feels like they’re up against a wall and corners her. We know how this goes.”

“If they get to a runoff, at that point, it is a whole new ball game and she’s no longer a grieving sister. She becomes a semi-incumbent obstacle to whoever wants to win,” the senator said. “These things happen faster nowadays. We have short memories.”

The South Carolina senator faced her four leading opponents in a televised debate on Monday evening. Graham was joined on the debate stage by Norman, Fry, former Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) and Mark Lynch, a MAGA-aligned businessman who lost to Lindsey Graham in last month’s primary by 30 points. 

The debate was largely respectful, though Graham called out Lynch in her closing statement for repeatedly criticizing her late brother while on stage. “I don’t know if I can rebut, but Mr. Lynch mentioned Lindsey Graham multiple times. I don’t know if he’s just afraid Lindsey beat him and now his little sister is going to beat him, but I just don’t like hearing that,” Graham said. 

Graham used the debate to highlight where she and her late brother agree and disagree on policy matters, emphasizing their shared support for the U.S. war in Iran and how they diverge on the filibuster, which Darline Graham said she supports abolishing to pass the Save America Act despite her later brother’s opposition to the move. 

It is unclear if the two candidates who advance to the runoff, should one be triggered, will hold another debate. 

“Lindsey just made his way through a pretty contentious primary himself, and there is a degree of the primary electorate that was not a fan of his. I think that segment will still be very much adamantly opposed to this because they’ll see it as a continuation of the policies that they don’t support,” a senior GOP campaign source said. “Ralph Norman is a little bit better positioned to capture some of these hardcore conservative voters. I think she’ll have a difficult time even with the president’s endorsement.”

“This is potentially a race where debates could have a real impact, in part because this would be part of her introduction statewide as a candidate,” Heye said. “In moments like that where you have somebody in that situation, it’s very important for the other people on stage, including the moderators, to be appropriately respectful.”

While several Republicans acknowledged Trump’s endorsement as a key booster for Graham, they pointed out that her late brother, who was known to be close to the president, struggled in his own primary.

“Lindsey just made his way through a pretty contentious primary himself, and there is a degree of the primary electorate that was not a fan of his. I think that segment will still be very much adamantly opposed to this because they’ll see it as a continuation of the policies that they don’t support,” a senior GOP campaign source said. “Ralph Norman is a little bit better positioned to capture some of these hardcore conservative voters. I think she’ll have a difficult time even with the president’s endorsement.”

Heye noted to JI that, “Not everything that happens in a Republican primary is about Donald Trump. His endorsement is always a boost, but that’s it.”

Reached for comment, Graham campaign press secretary Abby Zilch told JI in a statement, “Sen. Darline Graham has had to work hard for every single thing she’s ever done — running for the United States Senate will be no different. That’s just one of the many reasons why President Trump has endorsed her and why so many South Carolinians see a true fighter in this campaign.”