The late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) understood the value of staying in President Donald Trump’s good graces — both to advance his top legislative priorities and to shield himself from challenges on his right flank.

In the wake of Graham’s sudden death, the candidates vying to succeed him have absorbed a central lesson of his career: the most decisive factor in the Republican primary will almost certainly be who wins Trump’s endorsement.

Rep. Russell Fry (R-SC), who ousted a sitting GOP lawmaker with Trump’s endorsement in 2022, is emerging as one of the leading contenders and someone who has an inside track to receive the president’s blessing. Fry’s defeat of former Rep. Tom Rice (R-SC), who was one of the few Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment in 2021, allowed him to build early relationships with Trump’s political circle. 

Fry has been making calls to White House officials about a possible run this week, a source familiar with the matter told Jewish Insider. 

Asked on Monday evening about the possibility of endorsing Fry if he launched a bid for a full term in Graham’s seat, Trump told Newsmax that Fry is “somebody you can watch out for” as a rising Republican star and did not deny he was considering backing the House lawmaker if he enters the race.

Fry, who became an ally of Graham’s while they served in Congress together, was one of the Republicans who had reached out to the White House about a possible interim appointment to the seat. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster ultimately announced on Monday that he was appointing Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R-SC), Graham’s younger sister, to serve out the remainder of her older brother’s Senate term, which expires next January.

“Russell Fry, a young congressman, is outstanding. That could happen. I could see that happening,” Trump said of an endorsement. “I think he’s a very, very talented person. … I mean, he’s doing much better than the person that preceded him. He’s been very popular in the state.”

Reached for comment, a White House official told JI about the president potentially endorsing Fry that, “Until the president makes an announcement, any speculation is just speculation.”

Fry has been a reliably conservative and party-line vote in the House since elected, and also holds a solidly pro-Israel voting record. AIPAC congratulated him on his primary victory in 2024.

Graham’s GOP replacement on the November ballot will be chosen in a special election scheduled for Aug. 11. Candidates can file to run for the seat starting on July 21, in accordance with the timeline required by state law, and several others are also looking to throw their hats in the ring. 

Among the other Republicans who have reportedly been lobbying the White House and considering jumping into the race are Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC); Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC); former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC), a Fox News host and close ally of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Sen. Tim Scott; and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who lost to the state’s Attorney General Alan Wilson in a runoff of South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary in June.

Mark Lynch, who lost to Graham in last month’s primary by 30 points, said on Monday that he would enter the special election and committed $5 million to his campaign. During the campaign, Trump called him a “lunatic” who “would be a DISASTER for the Republican Party,” which came in response to Lynch blaming the U.S. war in Iran on Graham by arguing that the senator had convinced the president to start the conflict. Graham had criticized Lynch, a South Carolina businessman, for employing staffers with records of making antisemitic statements,  

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), who was also floated for a possible interim appointment, said on Sunday that he was committed to staying in the House to protect Republicans’ slim majority in the lower chamber. He has not divulged if he is considering entering the special election. 

Rep. William Timmons (R-SC) said late Tuesday that he would not enter the race to replace Graham, adding in the announcement that he would not support Noman or Mace’s candidacies.

Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans are confident that they will hold the Senate seat in November. Trump carried South Carolina in the 2024 presidential election by 18 points, 58-40%.

The Democratic nominee in the race is Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who handily won her primary. A political outsider who challenged Mace unsuccessfully in 2022, Andrews has drawn attention for her effective fundraising against Graham, outraising the incumbent in the last two quarters. National Democrats, however, have so far declined to prioritize the race, citing the need to use those resources in battleground states. 

The Cook Political Report grades the race as solid Republican.

A national Democratic campaign source told JI that this is not expected to change unless Republicans were to nominate a weak candidate with a record of extremism or concerning accusations about their personal background, such as accusations of criminal activity or assault. 

“If you remember back to [former Democratic National Committee Chair] Jaime Harrison’s campaign [in 2020], he was the head of the South Carolina Democratic Party and raised over $100 million and still got blown out,” Dr. Gibbs Knotts, a professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University, told JI. “South Carolina has not dipped its toe into that purple state category for two to three decades.”

“Whoever gets this [Republican] nomination, to state the obvious, is very likely to be the next senator.”