One week before Michigan’s closely watched Democratic Senate primary, a new poll shows Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) leading former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by two points if she proceeds to the general election — with her opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, trailing Rogers by seven points.

Among voters who said they definitely plan to vote in the general election, the more moderate Stevens currently leads Rogers 47% to 45%, making the race a toss-up. In an El-Sayed-Rogers matchup, Rogers leads El-Sayed, a far-left former public health official, 48% to 41%. 

The poll’s findings provide evidence for one of Stevens’ central campaign messages, which is that she stands the best chance of defeating Rogers in a key swing state and ensuring that Democrats hold onto the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). 

Among independent voters, Stevens and Rogers are nearly tied, with Rogers at 40% and Stevens at 39%. Independent voters overwhelmingly prefer Rogers to El-Sayed, with 47% saying they would support Rogers and 19% pledging to back El-Sayed. 

The poll was commissioned by the Michigan Education Association — the state’s largest teachers’ union, which has not made an endorsement in the race — and an organization called Business Leaders for Michigan. It was conducted between July 22 and 24. The survey did not ask respondents their preferences in the Aug. 4 primary.