The emerging race to succeed outgoing Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), who announced last week that she would not seek reelection, is setting the stage for an ideologically divisive Democratic primary, with rival members of the party’s progressive and moderate wings now eyeing the rare open seat.

While just one candidate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, has so far entered the primary, a range of state and federal lawmakers are expressing interest in joining the race — most recently Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), a moderate Democrat who on Monday said that she is “giving serious consideration to” a campaign and “will make a decision in the near future.”

If Craig chooses to run, she would likely emerge as the favored candidate among pro-Israel activists in Minnesota, Jewish community leaders say, citing a strong record of support. The four-term lawmaker, who represents a swing district covering the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs, is an ally of the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC and has been willing to speak out against Democratic colleagues amid Middle East policy disagreements.

By contrast, Flanagan, a prominent progressive who announced on Thursday that she intends to run for Senate, is seen as largely aligned with J Street, the left-wing Israel advocacy group that has frequently clashed with AIPAC. 

A poll by the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling shows Flanagan leading Craig 52-22% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 27% of primary voters undecided. Flanagan’s lead is attributable, in part, to her higher statewide profile. But Flanagan’s ties to the activist left could face increased scrutiny in the primary, said Manny Houle, a pro-Israel strategist who has worked in Minnesota. “Some of her friends are very far on the left,” he noted. “Will folks paint her in one direction?”

Flanagan has remained “a bit of a cipher” on Israel during her tenure as an elected official, said a Jewish leader who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the lieutenant governor.

She has also “really tried to be careful about how she approaches Israel” and its war in Gaza, said another Jewish leader who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to address a sensitive issue. 

Even as Flanagan has built positive relationships with the organized Jewish community, her “close connections to some progressives who are ardently anti-Zionist” have likewise raised concerns among local activists, according to the Jewish leader.

Democratic Majority for Israel suggested that it is taking a wait-and-see approach to Flanagan as some potential candidates who have been openly hostile to Israel also consider jumping into the primary — most notably Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), who is among the fiercest critics of Israel in the House. 

“There are a couple of possible candidates for this seat whose extraordinary hostility to the U.S.-Israel relationship is legendary,” Joel Wanger, DMFI’s chief political officer, said in a statement to Jewish Insider on Tuesday. “There are also a number of potential pro-Israel candidates as well including Rep. Angie Craig, and Governor Tim Walz, both of whom have strong voting records, and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who does not have a Congressional voting record on Israel issues, but with whom we have been in touch and who has made pro-Israel statements.”

Flanagan’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

In addition to Walz, whom one source informed of his thinking told JI is unlikely to mount a campaign for the Senate seat, the primary has drawn interest from Keith Ellison, the state attorney general who has also sparred with the pro-Israel community, and Steve Simon, the secretary of state, among other Democrats. 

Depending on how the primary field shapes up, Yiscah Bracha, a pro-Israel Democratic activist in Minneapolis, said the race could compel the state party, whose anti-Israel wing is particularly sizable and outspoken, to “choose its future direction.”

“Right now, things feel paralyzed,” Bracha told JI in an email on Tuesday. “We have a far-left faction for which hostility toward Israel is an ideological purity test. We have a more traditionally liberal faction, which advocates for caring pragmatic governance, but sometimes cannot articulate exactly what that means. Both argue, in the abstract, that its direction is most competitive against Republicans, but there has been an institutional unwillingness to choose.”

Instead, she said, “the party has tried to walk an increasingly narrow balance beam, prioritizing coalition management over making what could be an electorally existential choice.” The open Senate race in 2026, she added, “could force that choice.”

The state party is in the process of electing a new leader, after Ken Martin, the former longtime chair, was recently chosen to lead the Democratic National Committee. Even though Martin and Flanagan have long been friends, sources familiar with his thinking predicted that he would not publicly weigh in on the Senate race.

Likewise, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has indicated it will not take sides in the race, even as its new leader, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), has reportedly voiced interest in engaging in contested primaries.  

In a statement, David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the DSCC, said the group is not concerned the seat could fall under GOP control. “No Republican has won a Minnesota Senate race in over 20 years and Democrats will continue to hold this seat in 2026,” he said.

Still, Republicans have indicated they are taking the primary seriously, with several potential challengers looking at the seat. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said on social media last week that “Minnesota is in play, and we play to win.” 

Some sources speculated that the DSCC is privately in favor of Craig entering the race, suggesting that the group is now seeking to recruit more moderate candidates as it gears up for a challenging election season after losing the Senate majority in the most recent cycle.

Meanwhile, several party activists are privately and publicly urging Craig to enter the primary, including former Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who on Monday praised what he called her “principles, pragmatism and both private sector and political experience” as “a combination of attributes which we need more of in Washington.”

Craig did not return a request for comment about her plans for the race. 

A spokesperson for AIPAC, whose political action committee spent heavily in several House primaries last election cycle, told JI on Tuesday that the group has “not yet made any decisions on” the Minnesota race at this early stage.

As the Democratic primary field materializes, one Jewish community leader in Minnesota predicted that intraparty tensions over Middle East policy are likely to become a “flashpoint” in the race, especially if Craig ends up facing a left-wing challenger seen as hostile to Israel.

“If she runs,” the Jewish leader said of Craig, Israel “is going to be front and center.”