An increasingly crowded race for a coveted House seat in the heart of Manhattan is shaping up to be among the most vigorously contested Democratic primary battles in next year’s midterms, with half a dozen — and counting — contenders now jockeying for the chance to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY).

In a district home to one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the country, the open primary next June is likely to center in part on Israel as the candidates signal where they stand on an issue that has grown intensely charged over the war in Gaza.

Even as the far left now seeks to ride momentum from Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory — which elevated an unabashed socialist to executive office — experts suggested the primary could largely serve as an exception to the anti-Israel sentiments that became a trademark of his stunning rise.

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent in the mayoral election this month, won the district by five points with 50%, indicating that a potentially meaningful share of Jewish voters were resistant to Mamdani’s hostile views on Israel and refusal to condemn rhetoric seen as antisemitic.

The district, which includes the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan, “is more moderate and pro-Israel than” another heavily Jewish House seat in Brooklyn where Mamdani performed well, Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist who is not involved in the race, told Jewish Insider on Thursday.

So far, however, most of the declared candidates have been relatively cautious about sharing their positions on Israel — underscoring the hazards of addressing a subject that has fueled deep divisions within the Democratic Party. “I would be surprised if they want to lead on this,” Coffey speculated. “It’s a contentious issue.”   

With the exception of Alex Bores, an assemblyman who represents the Upper East Side, none of the top candidates who have launched bids in recent weeks answered a question from JI on Thursday asking whether they would support an embargo on offensive weapons to Israel, a measure backed by Nadler after he revealed in September that he would step down at the end of his current term.

“There are laws on the books about this and they should be applied across the board,” Bores said in a statement indicating he would oppose such efforts if elected. “There is no singling out or exemptions for any one country.”

Privately, Bores has been “clear” that an arms embargo is not “negotiable for him,” according to a person familiar with his thinking. Former Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), a pro-Israel Jewish Democrat, endorsed the assemblyman on Tuesday but was not available to comment about his decision.

Alan Pardee, a former financial executive who is also seeking the nomination, was more direct in a statement shared with JI. “I believe that Israel has the right to defend itself, and that the United States is a critical ally in that regard. I do not support the proposed embargo,” he said.

Micah Lasher, a Jewish assemblyman on the Upper West Side and a protégé of Nadler who is viewed as traditionally pro-Israel, has yet to publicly confirm his own stance on the matter, even as he is expected to reject an embargo. Lasher also dodged a question about the issue while speaking at an Assembly town hall in September before he launched his House bid, saying he was unwilling to discuss topics outside his state legislative purview, according to audio shared with JI. 

A poll that circulated in the district in September, which some observers suspected was affiliated with Lasher or allies of his campaign, asked respondents whether they supported Congress blocking “the sale of weapons to Israel” in order to “send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” a sign of the significance of such questions to voters in the race.

Like Nadler, a veteran Jewish lawmaker who has long sought to balance his progressive politics with support for Israel that dwindled during the war in Gaza, Lasher had faced backlash from some Jewish community leaders in the district for having endorsed Mamdani, though he has clarified they are not aligned on Israel issues.

Other candidates in the primary who backed the mayor-elect have similarly distanced themselves from his positions on Israel. Erik Bottcher, a city councilman from Chelsea who joined the primary on Thursday, has confirmed that, unlike Mamdani, he supports Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Jack Schlossberg, an influencer and the grandson of John F. Kennedy, who also entered the primary this week, has said he disagrees with Mamdani’s pledge to arrest Netanyahu if he steps foot in the city. The political scion was raised Catholic but identifies as Jewish.

Bores, who endorsed Mamdani in September, has objected to a failed bill the mayor-elect introduced as an assemblyman to strip nonprofit groups of their tax-exempt status for “engaging in unauthorized support of Israeli settlement activity.” Bores has said he viewed the bill as “immediately suspicious” because it “singularly applies to organizations providing aid to a specific country and its people.“

And Liam Elkind, a Jewish former nonprofit leader who had launched a primary challenge to Nadler before he announced his plans to retire, has expressed his concern that Mamdani has refused to denounce the phrase “globalize the intifada” — seen by critics as a call to violence against Jews. Mamdani has, instead, pledged to “discourage” usage of the phrase. 

Rounding out the primary field is Jami Floyd, an attorney and journalist who is seeking to occupy a centrist lane and has said that she did not vote for Mamdani. 

The field could grow as other potential candidates are said to be mulling campaigns, including George Conway, a lawyer and outspoken critic of President Donald Trump who is an independent, and Nathalie Barth, former president of Park Avenue Synagogue.

Cameron Kasky, a young gun-violence prevention activist, has filed to run and said on Thursday he is now exploring a bid. He is expected to soon join the race, according to a person familiar with the matter. He would be one of the lone anti-Israel voices in the current primary field, testing the resonance of such views among an electorate that denied Mamdani the majority of the vote.

Kasky, who is Jewish, has frequently criticized Israel on social media and is in favor of an arms embargo. “If you are a Democrat running in 2026 and do not fully support an arms embargo to the to State of Israel amidst their ongoing genocide in Gaza despite Trump’s fake ‘ceasefire,’” he said in a recent post, “Stop wasting everybody’s time. It’s over. The people have spoken. Moral clarity is winning.”

Despite his recent loss, Cuomo, a staunch defender of Israel, is also exploring a campaign and has been making calls to donors who backed his mayoral bid, though it was unclear how seriously he is considering the move, people familiar with the matter told JI. Cuomo, who was once married to a Kennedy, has suggested that he can pull support from Schlossberg and told people he “already has the Kennedy voters,” one of the sources told JI. A spokesperson for Cuomo has dismissed speculation that he has been considering a House campaign.

The primary is also expected to attract outside spending from super PACs and major Democratic donors, including Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of LinkedIn who has reportedly committed to backing Elkind. One person familiar with the race suggested Lasher could claim support from a powerful former boss, Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, for whom he once worked as a legislative director.

AIPAC, the pro-Israel advocacy group that has actively engaged in recent primary cycles, did not respond to a request for comment about how it is assessing the race.

The stakes for Jewish voters are high for today’s off-year elections. All the major contests — in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and California — are taking place in parts of the country where Jews make up a significant constituency. At a time when both parties are facing rising antisemitism in their own midst, we will be keeping a close eye on the results for trends affecting the Jewish community.

Here’s what we’ll be watching most closely:

New York City mayor: Polls consistently show Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani with a comfortable lead, but there’s less consensus on how decisive his winning margin will be. Most polls show Mamdani under 50%, though a few show him hitting a majority. Some show the combined anti-Mamdani vote — represented by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa — outpacing Mamdani’s share. 

Whether Mamdani surpasses a 50% majority will go a long way in determining how big his mandate will be. A narrower victory would mean that downballot Democrats — from members of Congress to local city council members — would have less to fear in response to the Mamdani movement.

President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Cuomo on Monday night could help the former Democratic governor pick off some Republican voters that had been leaning toward Sliwa. But for Cuomo to score an upset victory, he’d need to win over the vast majority of those Sliwa voters.

Pay close attention to the results in Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) heavily Jewish Manhattan district for signs of where the progressive-minded Jewish vote ends up landing. Cuomo won the first round of balloting over Mamdani in the district (37-33%), which includes the Upper East and Upper West Sides, but Mamdani narrowly prevailed in the final round of ranked-choice voting. Nadler notably backed Mamdani after his victory in the primary, but his district featured a significant share of backers for Brad Lander, the progressive city comptroller, as well. Cuomo will need a solid showing in Nadler’s district to do well.

New Jersey governor: The race between Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is competitive, though Democrats hold a small edge, according to public polls. The county we’ll be watching closely as a bellwether is Bergen County in north Jersey, which has one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the state and saw a significant pro-Trump swing from 2020 to 2024.

It’s also home to Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), the pro-Israel stalwart in Congress who carried the county in the Democratic gubernatorial primary and campaigned with Sherrill at a Jewish event in his home base last month.

Former President Joe Biden won 57% of the vote in Bergen, while former Vice President Kamala Harris barely won a majority (51%). New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, won 53% of the Bergen County vote in his narrow victory over Ciattarelli in 2021.  Ciattarelli would probably need an outright win in suburban Bergen to secure a victory.

Virginia statewide elections: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, is expected to win comfortably against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor, but the downballot races are likely to be more competitive. 

Republicans are pinning their hopes on securing a second term for Attorney General Jason Miyares, one of the more active state attorneys general working to fight antisemitism in their home state. His Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, is mired in a scandal over texts wishing violence against a former GOP colleague in the state Legislature. Polling shows the race highly competitive, with Spanberger’s margin of victory potentially making the difference as to whether she can pull Jones over the finish line.

The lieutenant governor race features Ghazala Hashmi, a Democratic state senator who has elicited concern from the state’s Jewish community over her past involvement in anti-Israel activism. She’s running against conservative talk show host John Reid. Either winner would make statewide history: Hashmi would be the first Muslim woman elected to statewide office; Reid would be the first openly gay Republican elected statewide. 

In a brief interview Monday, Jewish Insider asked Hashmi how big of a challenge she thinks antisemitism is in Virginia. Hashmi replied: “I think we see growing challenges on so many levels of bigotry, and we have to be united in our efforts. I’m facing a great deal of Islamophobic attacks, as you probably have seen, so we have to respond to everything.” Pressed on what she thought about antisemitism specifically, Hashmi cut our interview short.

California redistricting referendum: Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to win his push to redraw California’s congressional lines to offset some of the partisan redistricting that Republicans have engaged in. The new lines, however, could end up endangering some of the more moderate Republicans that have strong records on fighting antisemitism and supporting Israel. 

The list of those Republicans adversely affected include: Rep. Ken Calvert — who chairs the Appropriations subcommittee on defense funding — as well as Reps. Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, Doug LaMalfa and David Valadao.

Kiley has been a particularly outspoken voice against campus antisemitism from his perch on the House Education and Workforce Committee. 

Far-left mayoral scorecard: We’ll also be closely watching the mayoral races in Seattle and Minneapolis, where far-left DSA-aligned candidates are running competitively. If Katie Wilson and Omar Fateh end up both prevailing in Seattle and Minneapolis, respectively, it will signal a sign of the Democratic Party’s growing radicalism in major urban areas.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), who on Wednesday announced a primary challenge to Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), announced Thursday that he will return donations he has received from AIPAC and will reject further donations from the group.

Massachusetts is a solidly Democratic state but has also a large population of Jewish pro-Israel voters who might be inclined to support the more-moderate Moulton. Though his record on Israel policy is somewhat mixed, Moulton’s record on the issue is more pro-Israel than that of Markey, who is a prominent critic of Israel and has voted repeatedly against weapons transfers to the Jewish state.

“I support Israel’s right to exist, but I’ve also never been afraid to disagree openly with AIPAC when I believe they’re wrong. In recent years, AIPAC has aligned itself too closely with Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu’s government,” Moulton said in a statement. “I’m a friend of Israel, but not of its current government, and AIPAC’s mission today is to back that government. I don’t support that direction. That’s why I’ve decided to return the donations I’ve received and will not be accepting their support.”

According to campaign finance watchdog group Open Secrets, Moulton received around $43,000 from AIPAC and its supporters in the 2024 election cycle, out of a total of $2.8 million raised. The Boston Globe reported that Moulton plans to return $35,000 in donations from the current election cycle.

AIPAC issued a blistering statement in response to Moulton.

“Rep. Moulton is abandoning his friends to grab a headline, capitulating to the extremes rather than standing on conviction,” spokesperson Marshall Wittmann said in a statement. “His statement comes after years of him repeatedly asking for our endorsement and is a clear message to AIPAC members in Massachusetts, and millions of pro-Israel Democrats nationwide, that he rejects their support and will not stand with them.”

Moulton’s stance echoes those taken by other prominent Democratic candidates across the country seeking to appeal to the progressive Democratic base increasingly hostile to Israel.

Moulton’s changed stance on accepting support from AIPAC is a sign of how even more-moderate Democrats are facing pressure from the party’s activist base to distance themselves from embracing Israel. The Massachusetts congressman had been endorsed by AIPAC prior to declaring his Senate campaign.

“I’m cautiously optimistic that the recent breakthrough in Gaza will move us closer to ending the horrific violence in the region,” Moulton added in the statement. “A political resolution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side in peace is exactly the kind of framework I’ve been calling for from the beginning.”

Barry Shrage, the longtime former president of the Combine Jewish Philanthropies of Greater Boston and a professor of practice in Brandeis University’s Hornstein Jewish Professional Leadership Program said it’s tough to predict where pro-Israel Jewish voters will land.

“I think a lot of people will remember what Markey has been doing and where Markey was coming from — kind of a leader of the anti-Israel ‘progressive’ Democratic faction,” Shrage said. “But then people are going to want to know, really, what Moulton really thinks.”

“He made a decision that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is more important to him than the Jewish community — or he thinks that the Jewish community has also turned against Israel, which, by the way is not the case, not in Boston,” Shrage said, of Moulton’s denunciation of AIPAC. “It’s kind of a cop-out for him to say, ‘I disagree with Netanyahu and that’s why I won’t take any AIPAC support.’”

Shrage noted that he saw Markey aligning himself more closely with anti-Israel figures and groups during his 2020 campaign, pointing to an op-ed in which he wrote, “his campaign … has made a concerning shift by welcoming and featuring support from individuals and organizations with highly divisive and polarizing approaches to Israel, our country and our world and all that goes with it, socially, politically, and economically.”

Shrage supported then-Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-MA) against Markey in 2020.

He told JI that Markey’s leftward shift on Israel issues has continued in the ensuing six years, noting that Markey “won the race, in a way, by selling himself” to the left wing of the party.

A new poll of New York City Jewish voters commissioned by the pro-Israel New York Solidarity Network underscores the presence of a cohesive constituency opposed to Zohran Mamdani’s candidacy to become New York City mayor — but also illustrates some of the divisions preventing the city’s Jewish community from speaking with a loud, united voice.

The poll, conducted by the respected Democratic polling firm GQR, found Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, winning only 37% of Jewish voters, with 25% backing Mayor Eric Adams, 21% supporting former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and 14% preferring Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. The results show that even though most Jewish voters identify as Democrats, a clear majority won’t support the Democratic nominee because of his record on issues of concern to the Jewish community — in a city where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 6-to-1.

Adams performs particularly well among Orthodox Jews, winning 61% of their vote, while Cuomo leads among Conservative Jewish voters with 35% support. But among unaffiliated and Reform Jews, Mamdani leads with a near majority of the Jewish vote. 

Asked if Jewish voters were pro-Israel, two-thirds (66%) responded in the affirmative, while 31% said they weren’t. That’s a slightly larger share of non-Zionist Jews than we’ve seen in national polling. Nearly two-thirds (63%) also said that the “globalize the intifada” rhetoric that Mamdani has defended is antisemitic, with just 27% disagreeing. 

Just over half of Jewish voters in New York City (51%) believe Mamdani is antisemitic; 42% of respondents disagree. 

The results illustrate the long-standing dynamic of the general election: Mamdani’s political standing is unusually weak as a Democratic nominee, but he continues to benefit from the divided field of opponents — and lack of a coherent strategy to go after the front-runner. 

The fact that there isn’t a consensus Mamdani alternative within the Jewish community at this late stage demonstrates the hands-off approach to the race outside groups have taken, despite the very real fears many hold of what a Mamdani mayoralty would look like.

Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) vote Wednesday night, with a majority of Senate Democrats, in favor of a resolution to block a shipment of automatic weapons to Israel is fueling renewed frustration with the senator within the Georgia Jewish community, setting back efforts by the senator to repair ties with Jewish voters who objected to similar votes last December.

Ossoff’s relationship with Georgia’s sizable Jewish community could be a critical deciding factor in his reelection campaign next November — with a tight margin of victory expected in the swing state, significant changes in Jewish voting patterns could help decide the election.

The Georgia senator alienated many in the Jewish community by voting in December for two of three resolutions to block aid shipments to Israel. In subsequent months — after a group of Jewish donors expressed support for Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp as a potential challenger — Ossoff reached out to Jewish community leaders and groups to work to repair ties, with some success.

Many leaders said at the time that he was making progress but had more work to do to fully regain their trust. Those efforts hit a stumbling block in June after Ossoff — whose second child had just been born — took nearly a week to comment on the war between Israel and Iran.

Ossoff said, of his votes on Wednesday, that he had voted for the resolution to block the automatic weapons to send a message to the Israeli government objecting to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, as well as due to concerns that the weapons would be provided to police controlled by Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a controversial figure even in pro-Israel circles.

He said he voted against a second resolution blocking a sale of bombs and bomb guidance kits, because those weapons are necessary to strike targets throughout the region attempting to launch missiles and rockets at Israeli civilians. Ossoff had similarly opposed a resolution on bombs and guidance kits in November, while voting for two other resolutions to block other weapons transfers. 

Norman Radow, a major Democratic donor in Georgia who spoke to Ossoff on Wednesday evening after the votes, told Jewish Insider, “I’m disappointed with him and he knows it. And I think he knows that a vast majority of the Jewish community feels the same way.”

Radow said that Ossoff’s justifications for his vote on the assault rifles resolution didn’t hold water for him and his logic was “sophomoric.” The Democratic donor said he’d argued to the senator that Ossoff had overstated the extent of violence in the West Bank and of starvation in Gaza. 

And he said he told the senator that non-binding efforts condemning Hamas and its backers are ineffectual, as compared to the real impacts that cutting off military supplies to Israel would have. 

He indicated he appreciated the senator’s call.

“I’m disappointed in his behavior, but I can’t say it’s a surprise. We’ve seen this before,” Cheryl Dorchinsky, the founder of the grassroots Atlanta Israel Coalition, said. “It’s insane to me that anyone would think that voting against weapons to Israel during a war is a good idea, regardless of who’s in power.”

She said she feels adrift from both political parties. “When people that I see going into politics as having hopefully an interest in doing the right thing fail us as a people, it just kind of breaks my heart,” Dorchinsky said. She argued that Israel should not be a partisan issue, and blamed “bad actors” trying to turn it into one.

“While I wish [Ossoff] would have voted against both of [the resolutions], I’m very pleased he voted against [the one on bombs and bomb guidance kits],” Dov Wilker, who serves as the regional director of the American Jewish Committee in Atlanta, said. Wilker also said he was “disappointed” that the state’s other senator, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), had voted for both of the resolutions.

Another Jewish Democratic donor in Georgia said, “The yes vote with Sanders, who only wants to destroy the U.S.-Israel relationship, is concerning [and] emboldens the terrorists to continue to reject the ceasefire that was agreed to by Israel. It’s exactly what Hamas wants.”

Rabbi Joshua Heller of Atlanta’s Congregation B’nai Torah told JI that, while he does not endorse candidates, he’s heard in conversations that “a lot of folks who had previously been strong supporters of [Ossoff’s] in the Jewish community are not happy about the stands that he has taken.”

Heller said that, in conversations with him about such positions, Ossoff and his staff have highlighted actions he has taken in support of Israel, “and that is true, but every time a vote like this comes around, there is a break in trust and that becomes harder to restore.”

He said that in conversations with Democratic Jewish voters, many onetime Ossoff supporters are “having second thoughts, at this point,” and that there is a real “challenge in his relationship with a lot of folks in the Jewish community right now.”

“No Jewish community is monolithic, but I definitely see a lot of folks in the community who are troubled by this,” Heller said.

Ossoff still maintains supporters in the Jewish community who back his stance on this week’s resolutions.

Beth Sugarman, a prominent J Street member in Georgia, told JI, “The Jewish community has diversity of opinions, but the people I know think Jon Ossoff is thoughtful and represents us well and his statement and split vote was a good reflection of where the community is. The senator’s statement and split vote was thoughtful and exactly what the community believes.”

J Street supported both of the resolutions to block aid.

Cary Levow, a supporter of pro-Israel causes and candidates, said, “I support Senator Ossoff and know of other Jewish Georgians who understand that Jon’s approach to the Gaza humanitarian issue is genuine.” 

“Senator Ossoff has voted for over $20 billion in aid to Israel, has family living in Israel and has spent a significant amount of time in the country,” Levow continued. “I think Jon has represented the Jewish community well and I have zero concern about a senator who is critical of how [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] Bibi is waging this war.”

Larry Auerbach, a Georgia lawyer and Ossoff supporter, said, “Senator Ossoff has done what the vast majority of Georgia’s Jewish community has asked him to do to represent us well by standing up for protecting the Israeli people’s security and saying that the extremists in the Netanyahu administration can’t continue like this.”

National Republicans see Ossoff’s positions as an opening to peel off Jewish voters in the upcoming senatorial election. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has seized on Ossoff’s November votes to block aid to Israel, again slammed him on Wednesday.

“Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who time and again refuses to stand with Georgia’s Jewish community,” NRSC spokesperson Nick Puglia said in a statement. “He’d rather please the pro-Hamas extremists in his party than stand with Israel and Jewish Georgians. In 2026, voters will send him packing.”

Radow, the Democratic donor, argued that Ossoff’s votes were “bad politics,” though he said he’s not sure any of the current or prospective Republican candidates can beat Ossoff.

“He’s kowtowing to Bernie Sanders — that does not win elections in Georgia,” Radow said. “The only thing that Jon’s got going for him right now is the Republican field of candidates is pretty weak. … I want him to win, and he’s not winning my vote right now, and he’s not going to win a lot of people’s votes supporting Bernie resolutions.”

He said that whether he ultimately supports Ossoff next year will depend in part on which Republican ultimately ends up as the nominee against him.

“It’s certainly going to be an interesting race, and my vote is still up for grabs,” Radow said. “I’m not going to be a knee-jerk Democrat on this issue.”

He urged Ossoff, going forward, not to show public daylight with Israel, “stop playing secretary of state” and keep disputes with the Israeli officials behind closed doors. And he called on the senator to consult with Jewish community members before critical votes like this one, rather than reaching out afterward to explain his votes.

Dorchinsky said that she would “never say never to anything,” when asked if Ossoff could win her support at this point, and that she’ll “be paying attention” and make her final decision when she’s in the voting booth next year.

“He has a responsibility to represent us all, and if he actually started to, I would be thrilled. As of right now, I’m clearly not,” Dorchinsky said.

A Jewish leader in Georgia agreed that a key deciding question for wary Jewish voters will be who the Republican Party nominates to run against Ossoff in 2025.

The leader told JI he thinks that Ossoff’s vote for the assault rifles resolution could help him “thread the needle” more easily than other resolutions and represented a more “considerate” approach, given the Ben-Gvir connection. “I think the majority of American Jews are not fans of Ben-Gvir,” the Jewish leader said.

“I think that if he is consistent with his messaging around the specific nature of why he voted against the assault rifles, I think it’ll help people that are more on the fence with him, but want to vote for him — versus those that are just against him,” the leader said.

But, the leader continued, “that doesn’t mean everyone’s going to buy it,” and noted that many members of the community are unhappy with the vote. 

They  said the vote is particularly “not going to help” Ossoff among Jewish community members upset by his delay in commenting on the Iran war, “but those that were able to give him some grace that he finally said something — this will help them.”

Heller was more skeptical that Ossoff’s vote-splitting approach would satisfy anyone, saying he thinks the strategy won’t help Ossoff with supporters of Israel who don’t believe in stopping weapons shipments nor with opponents of Israel who believe in cutting off all aid to Israel.

Like with the gradual impact of climate change, the Democratic Party’s shift away from its pro-Israel moorings and its commitments to fight antisemitism is happening in a slow but appreciable fashion. Seemingly every week, there’s a political development, polling nugget or election outcome that underscores the party’s commitment to Jewish voters isn’t quite where it was in the not-too-distant past.

There were the Pew Research Center and Quinnipiac polls this spring showing that most Democratic voters now view Israel unfavorably — with support for the Jewish state dividing more clearly along partisan lines. The results underscored why so few Democrats could muster even some reluctant praise for the U.S. strikes setting back Iran’s nuclear program. 

There’s the blowback that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro received from the Kamala Harris campaign for comparing extremist anti-Israel protesters on campuses to Ku Klux Klan members, as recounted in a new tell-all book about the 2024 campaign. Or the similar intraparty animus that another leading Democratic Jewish official, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, received after her office charged anti-Israel student protesters for assaulting police and engaging in ethnic intimidation. 

Amid sustained political pressure from the left, these two leading Jewish Democrats have since pulled their political punches. Shapiro, a national political figure who was one of the most prominent targets of antisemitic hate, notably chose to avoid labeling the attack on the governor’s mansion as antisemitic in a nationally televised interview. Nessel later dropped the charges, amid a smear campaign that her decision to charge the students was a result of anti-Muslim bias.

And of course, there was the shocking outcome last month in the New York City Democratic primary where Zohran Mamdani, the far-left candidate who declined to speak out against “globalize the intifada” rhetoric, comfortably prevailed over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for his party’s nomination. That result followed pro-Israel stalwart Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s (D-NJ) fourth-place finish in New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, despite ample resources and a message geared towards Jewish moderates.

Next week in an Arizona special election, the pro-Israel candidate, former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez Jr. — best-known for helping save former Rep. Gabby Giffords’ life — is lagging behind Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who has been more critical of the Jewish state. 

The latest data points that should concern mainstream Democrats are from the new fundraising figures in the Michigan Senate race. The primary has become something of an ideological proxy battle, pitting Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), a strong ally of Israel with a battle-tested political track record, against an anti-Israel left-wing challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, who has not had much success in statewide politics. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, with a progressive record in the Michigan Legislature, has been trying to balance both sides of the ideological divide. (Former Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate is also running.)

Stevens, long one of the party’s top fundraisers, lagged behind both her rivals in the just-completed fundraising quarter. Her $1.3 million raised, supplemented by a transfer of the $1.2 million already in her House campaign account, was a solid sum. But it was surpassed by McMorrow ($2.1 million) and also by El-Sayed ($1.8 million), whose surprising financial haul is a likely reflection of the ideological disposition of the party’s small donor base.

It’s a warning sign that anti-Israel activism is now being leveraged as a way to raise money for like-minded candidates. That would be a shift from recent elections where many candidates hostile to Israel were seen as too extreme to win support from a critical mass of donors.

The big picture? Turbocharged partisanship and polarization, which has impacted nearly every issue in the country, is now affecting the politics behind support for Israel — and even turning bipartisan issues with widespread support, like fighting against antisemitism and defending Jewish communal interests, into a partisan food fight. 

For decades, most Jewish voters have aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, even amid serious policy disagreements. It’s hard to imagine that changing dramatically, even as we’ve seen small shifts towards the GOP, especially among more-observant Jewish voters. But if the party continues to accommodate far-left forces with radical views on Israel and antisemitism, that level of support will be significantly tested — and worth watching closely — in the years ahead.