Iran unlikely to escalate attacks against the U.S. after strike on nuclear sites, but the war with Israel will continue, experts say

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Iranian worshippers burn the flags of the U.S. and Israel during an anti-Israeli rally to condemn Israeli attacks on Iran, after Tehran's Friday prayers in Tehran, Iran, on June 20, 2025.
Iran is unlikely to initiate attacks against the U.S. after the American strike on Islamic Republic nuclear sites, but it will continue to launch missiles at Israel, experts told Jewish Insider on Sunday.
Hours after the U.S. bombed nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in Iran, Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JI that he doesn’t “identify a great desire — to say the least — of the Iranians to escalate with the U.S. … If they have a sharp reaction, it could drag in the Americans, who said that the matter is finished for them after they strike Iran. The U.S. has capabilities that could threaten the survival of the regime.”
Zimmt said it was likely that the Iranians would have a “symbolic reaction,” possibly targeting a U.S. military base in the region but with advance warning, similar to their response to the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
“We shouldn’t underestimate Iran’s capabilities — their missiles are a big concern — but those who think we’re on the verge of World War III and that all the American bases will burn need to understand that the central goal of the Iranian regime is to survive, so I don’t think they’ll do that in the foreseeable future,” Zimmt added.
However, he said, hours after Iran shot 25 missiles at Israel on Sunday morning, causing damage in central Israel and Haifa, “Israel is another story. I think [Iran will] continue what they’re doing in Israel.”
Oded Ailam, a former senior official in Israel’s defense establishment and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told JI that Iran may choose not to escalate with the U.S. and instead “take out their anger on Israel with an increase in ballistic missiles,” but he said an Iranian attack on U.S. military targets in the region was still possible.
“The Iranians probably have not decided yet. It can go either way,” he said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “we were in negotiations with the U.S. when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the U.S. decided to blow up that diplomacy. What conclusion would you draw?”
Ailam said that while, in the short term, Iran was unlikely to return to the negotiating table “as a matter of national pride, it would look like a total defeat,” they would probably reenter talks farther down the line.
“I don’t know when it will happen, but I think the Iranians will very cautiously try to reach out to the Americans to negotiate and say they want to try to salvage some uranium enrichment for civilian needs,” he said.
Zimmt, however, said it was “clear that they won’t go back to negotiations.”
“The more significant thing in the weeks and days ahead is what they do in the nuclear arena,” he said. “Do they announce that they’re quitting the [Non-Proliferation Treaty]? In the end, I think their decision is connected to the question to which we don’t have an answer: what capabilities they still have.”
The lesson that Iran likely learned from the past week and a half, Zimmt posited, is that “being on the verge of having a nuclear weapon is not enough. They need to have a nuclear weapon. I’m not sure they can do it, though.”
“If, theoretically, they can use a few hundred centrifuges that remain and a few hundred kilos of uranium and try to break out [to weapons-grade enrichment] in a hidden place, they may consider it. I doubt they’ll do it now, when Israeli planes are flying over their heads, but I assume they would wait some time and reconsider their nuclear strategy,” Zimmt explained.
Initial satellite photos published by the Associated Press showed damage to the entrances of the nuclear facility in Fordow, which is under a mountain, as well as damage to the mountain itself. David Albright, president and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, wrote on X that the photos appear to show that the bombs were dropped on a ventilation shaft into Fordow’s underground halls.
Ailam said that “the damage is very extensive.” According to his analysis, the attacks “neutralized” Iran’s ability to use its 400-kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity and turn it into weapons-grade (90% enriched) uranium.
“They don’t have the capability because they don’t have the centrifuges anymore,” he said. “It’s not terminal; if we want to ensure the nuclear weapons program is totally destroyed, we need to strike the 400 kg or reach an agreement in which it is removed from Iran, but this has significantly damaged the Iranians’ ability to rapidly reach military-grade enrichment.”
U.S. intelligence agencies said that the stockpile, held at the Isfahan facility, was harmed, but Israel has not yet released a similar assessment, Ailam said.
However, Zimmt said that it is harder to know the extent of the damage to the nuclear program without more extensive satellite photos of the nuclear sites.
“The Iranians are trying to present a picture that it was not significantly damaged, but there really is not much to rely on yet other than IDF reports,” he said.
IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said on Sunday that the Israeli army “has more targets. We are prepared for the campaign to continue and must prepare for any developments.”
Ailam said that Israel “did not entirely meet [its] goals. It was mostly Israel, but with the help of the U.S., we partially removed the immediate threat from the nuclear program and the massive ballistic system and [Iran’s] ability to manufacture 300 ballistic missiles a day. That was an existential threat to Israel.”
“But we are not at the point where we can say we removed all the threats and finished the whole bank of targets. It’s a huge country,” he added.
Zimmt said that the U.S. strike on Fordow was “the cherry on top” of Israel’s war against Iran, and that it’s time to wind down.
“Of course we can continue. We can always try to further degrade the nuclear program, but … as long as the goal was, foremost, to severely damage the nuclear program, the goal was — if not already achieved — it’s very close … I think the time has come to think of how to end this, even if it’s unilateral. If they attack, we can react, but we need to aim to finish in the coming days,” Zimmt said.
As for talk about regime change, Zimmt said it would be “impossible” through airstrikes.
Ailam said that every major attack on Iran creates “cracks in the regime’s wall and stability, and reveals this regime to be an empty vessel.” However, he said that there are not powerful enough forces within Iran that have risen up against the regime yet. “When it will happen is hard to say, but the more [the regime] suffers blows, the closer it gets.”
IAF strikes centrifuge and weapons production sites after 25 Iranian missiles intercepted with no casualties in Israel

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Smoke rises from locations targeted in Tehran amid the third day of Israel's waves of strikes against Iran, on Sunday, June 15, 2025.
Israel struck a centrifuge production site in Tehran early Wednesday, after successfully intercepting more than two dozen missiles launched by Iran toward Israel in the preceding hours.
Over 50 Israeli Air Force jets flew to Iran, where they struck a facility in which centrifuges were manufactured to expand and accelerate uranium enrichment for Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office said.
”The Iranian regime is enriching uranium for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons. Nuclear power for civilian use does not require enrichment at these levels,” the IDF said.
The IDF also said it struck several weapons manufacturing facilities, including one used “to produce raw materials and components for the assembly of surface-to-surface missiles, which the Iranian regime has fired and continues to fire toward the State of Israel.” Another facility that the IDF struck manufactured components for anti-aircraft missiles.
IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said on Wednesday that the IDF “attacked five Iranian combat helicopters that tried to harm our aircraft.”
“There is Iranian resistance, but we control the air [over Iran] and will continue to control it. We are deepening our damage to surface missiles and acting in every place from which the Iranians shoot missiles at Israel,” Defrin added.
Defrin said on Tuesday evening that, as a result of Israel’s air superiority in western Iran and the Tehran area, the Islamic Republic’s military efforts “have been pushed back into central Iran. They are now focusing their efforts on conducting missile fire from the area of Isfahan.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz said that “a tornado is passing over Tehran. Symbols of the regime are exploding and collapsing, from the broadcast authority and soon other targets, and masses of residents are fleeing. This is how dictatorships collapse.”
Most of the projectiles fired from Iran toward northern and central Israel overnight were intercepted, and no injuries or fatalities were reported.
In addition, Iran launched over 10 drones at the Galilee and the Golan on Wednesday morning, all of which the IDF intercepted.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Israel is running low on Arrow interceptors used to shoot down long-range ballistic missiles from Iran. Israel also uses the David’s Sling system against Iranian missiles. The Arrow is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. The U.S. has augmented Israel’s air defenses with its THAAD system, but is concerned about its own stock of interceptors. The IDF told the Journal that “it is prepared and ready to handle any scenario.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote on X that Iran “must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy.” On his Persian X account, Khamenei evoked Khaybar, the site of a massacre of Jews by Muslims in the 7th century, along with an image of a man with a sword entering a burning castle.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that it shot Fatah-1 hypersonic missiles at Israel, which move faster than the speed of sound and cannot be detected by missile defense systems. However, there is no evidence on the ground in Israel of that being the case.
Iranian state media reported on Wednesday the interception of an Israeli drone near Isfahan, with footage of an aircraft that looks like an IAF Hermes 900. The IDF declined to comment.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar wrote a letter updating the U.N. Security Council on Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran. The operation is “aimed to neutralize the existential and imminent threat from Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs” and “specifically targets military facilities and critical components of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as well as key individuals involved in Iran’s efforts to achieve nuclear weapons.”
Sa’ar noted the Islamic Republic’s “public threats to eliminate the State of Israel, in stark violation of the UN charter, and its continued attempts to achieve the means to accomplish this by rapidly developing military nuclear capabilities, as well as its ballistic missile program.” He pointed out that the International Atomic Energy Agency censured Iran in a recent Board of Governors decision for its non-compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Sa’ar’s letter came after two missives from Iran to the UNSC about Israel’s strikes on the country.
Also Wednesday, the first Israeli rescue flights arrived from Cyprus, meant to help some of the over 100,000 Israelis stuck abroad while Israel’s airspace is closed. Israel Airports Authority said that 2,800 Israelis were expected to return on Wednesday. Israeli airlines El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa will be making further emergency flights to repatriate Israelis.
China’s foreign ministry said that it was telling citizens to leave Israel and Iran, and Russia’s ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, said that the families of Russian diplomats left Israel via Egypt on Tuesday.
Iran has launched about 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, hitting 40 impact sites since the beginning of the operation on Friday, according to the Israeli Government Press Office. There have been 24 fatalities and over 804 injured, eight of whom are in serious condition. About 3,800 people have been evacuated from their homes and 18,766 damage claims were submitted to the Israel Tax Authority.
Iran launched less than a dozen missiles at Israel in the quietest night since start of the war

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People look at a crater in the ground after a missile strike on June 17, 2025 in Herzliya, Israel.
Israel killed Iran’s new top military commander and confidante of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei days after eliminating his predecessor, the IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced on Tuesday, after a night in which missile launches from Iran towards Israel slowed down significantly.
The Israeli Air Force struck a command center in Tehran, killing Ali Shadmany, Iran’s chief of war general staff, who had authority over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iranian military.
Shadmany, whom the IDF Spokesperson’s Office called “one of the closest figures to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” was on the job for four days after Israel killed his predecessor, Alam Ali Rashid, early Friday.
“In his various roles, Shadmany played a direct and central role in shaping Iranian offensive operations targeting the State of Israel,” the IDF stated. “His elimination is the latest in a series of targeted strikes against Iran’s top military leadership, dealing another significant blow to the command structure of Iran’s armed forces.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said in the Knesset on Tuesday that he “would recommend to whoever the job [of chief of war general staff] is offered to consider it well, and whoever responds positively should be very careful.”
Also Tuesday, the IAF struck dozens of military targets in western Iran, maintaining its control over the airspace and destroying surface-to-surface missile storage and launch sites, as well as UAV storage sites.
Israel struck the building from which Iranian state news channel IRINN was broadcasting on Monday. The explosion interrupted a news broadcast and rubble could be seen falling on screen. The IDF sent warnings to the civilian population in the area before the strike.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that “the propaganda and incitement broadcast authority of the Iranian regime was attacked by the IDF after the broad evacuation of the residents of the area. We will strike the Iranian dictator everywhere.”
Monday night and the early hours of Tuesday morning were the quietest since the beginning of the war with Iran on Friday. The IAF intercepted 30 projectiles launched from Iran toward Israel, with sirens mostly in northern and central Israel and no reports of injuries or damage to property.
On Tuesday morning, Iran launched additional missiles at Israel, triggering sirens in the center of the country, including Jerusalem and the West Bank. The IDF said it intercepted most of the projectiles. Magen David Adom reported 14 injuries at eight impact sites, including a bus depot in Herzliya where the blast created a four-meter-wide hole in the ground.
The USS Nimitz, the U.S. Navy’s oldest aircraft carrier, headed from East Asia to the Middle East on Monday, according to the U.S. Naval Institute.
Israel bracing for further retaliation; ‘Freedom is granted to those who are ready to fight for it,’ IDF Chief of Staff Zamir says

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Smoke rises from a location allegedly targeted in Israel's wave of strikes on Tehran, Iran, on early morning of June 13, 2025.
Over 100 drones launched by Iran and its proxies at Israel were intercepted on Friday morning, as Israelis continued bracing for further retaliation after the IDF launched Operation Rising Lion, reportedly destroying Iran’s main enrichment site in Natanz and killing Iran’s top three military officers.
“Iran launched over 100 drones at Israel and we are working to intercept them,” IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said, hours after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and eliminated senior military figures, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami.
Three hours later, Israeli media reported that the drones had been shot down and the IDF Home Front Command lifted its directive for Israelis to stay near their safe rooms and shelters.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on X prior to the drone strike that Israel “should anticipate a severe punishment … With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared itself for a bitter painful fate, which it will definitely see.”
Some of the projectiles were launched from Iraq, and the IDF prepared for possible launches from Lebanon and Yemen, where the Houthis have shot missiles provided by Iran at Israel every few days in recent months.
Jordan reported intercepting some Iranian UAVs over its territory, saying that it will not allow Iran to violate its airspace.
While President Donald Trump said the U.S. will defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, other Western allies who assisted when Iran shot hundreds of missiles at the Jewish state in the April 2024 attack did not. The U.K. does not plan to help Israel, the Times of London’s defense editor, Larisa Brown, posted on X, in contrast with October, when it sent two fighter jets and a refueling tanker to the region after Israel struck Iranian military sites. Paris affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself and expressed concern about Iran’s nuclear program, but stopped short of publicly offering support.
The IDF Home Front Command ordered all schools and non-emergency offices closed on Friday and Saturday and told all Israelis to stay close to shelters and safe rooms for much of Friday morning. “Many alerts are expected in this campaign,” Home Front Command head Maj.-Gen. Roni Milo said in a message to the public.
Ben-Gurion Airport was evacuated and Israel’s airspace was closed. Israelis were ordered not to gather in synagogues; the chief rabbis said to listen to the Home Front Command instructions and to read Psalms. The Tel Aviv Pride Parade scheduled for Friday and the Hostage Families Forum demonstration scheduled for Saturday were also canceled.
The strikes on Iran came a day after Trump’s 60-day deadline to reach a deal with the Islamic Republic expired — though the president said he planned to continue talks — and after the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report saying that Iran violated the non-proliferation treaty. Iran is thought to have enough highly enriched uranium to make 10 nuclear weapons in under two weeks, in addition to several months to assemble a bomb using that material.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said that Israel launched the strikes because “the time had come, we had reached the point of no return. We could not wait to act, we had no choice. Recent and distant history taught us that when faced with ambitions to destroy us, we cannot bow our heads and as such, we will fight to ensure our existence.”
“Freedom is granted to those who are ready to fight for it,” Zamir added. “We are embarking on this campaign together with one goal before us, to ensure a safer future for the State of Israel and its citizens. With faith, together and in a joint effort, we will win.”
Zamir added that “beyond the technology, the arms and plans of action, we carry an additional unique element, the Jewish and Zionist spirit beating within us. In the name of this spirit and with faith in the justice of our way, our actions will speak for us.”
The IDF said that it struck over 100 targets in Iran. Among them was an underground facility in which the top officers of the IRGC air force were gathered, according to Defense Minister Israel Katz’s office. Israel also targeted IRGC commander Hossein Salami, and senior officers in the Iranian military, including its chief of staff and his deputy, as well as top officials in the regime’s missile and air-defense programs, as well as nuclear scientists. The Mossad established a drone base in Iran, from which strikes on Iranian missile systems were carried out.
The strikes also reportedly targeted the areas of nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan, with some reports saying the Natanz enrichment site was destroyed, and at least six military bases, including Parchin.
The IDF called up thousands of reservists, including in the Air Force, Home Front Command, intelligence and the Technology and Logistics Directorate.
The Israeli National Security Council sent a warning to Israelis abroad to avoid displaying Jewish and Israeli symbols in public, attending large Jewish or Israeli events, and posting their location or future plans on social media.
An Israeli government source admitted that some public statements made prior to the attacks were made to trick Iran and the public, including a message sent to journalists that Thursday night’s security cabinet meeting was about hostage negotiations. The source would not confirm whether that strategy included a message that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad head David Barnea would be meeting with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff ahead of talks with Iran in Oman; Dermer and Barnea were scheduled to leave on Friday, but the former appeared in photos taken in Israel released by the government early Friday morning.
Israel was reportedly concerned that remarks by Trump that Israel “might attack” would tip off Iran to its plans, and asked the president to subsequently post on social media that “the US seeks a diplomatic solution.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar held calls with his counterparts in Germany, Italy and the E.U.to inform them about Israel’s actions against the Iranian threat.
“The whole world saw and understood that the Iranians were not ready to stop and we had to stop them. The latest IAEA report illustrated the serious violations,” Sa’ar said. “We know that challenging days lie ahead, but we have no other choice.”
The United Arab Emirates Foreign Ministry said it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strikes, and “expressed its deep concern for maintaining stability and security in the region.”
Saudi Arabia also released a “strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Plus, U.S. pours cold water on Macron’s Palestinian summit

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State Department Sikorsky HH-60L Black Hawk helicopters as they fly over Baghdad towards the U.S. embassy headquarters on December 13, 2024.
Good Thursday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we talk to analysts about the significance of the evacuation of some State Department personnel and military families from the Middle East and the likelihood of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. We report on the defeat of two resolutions in the Senate yesterday to stop weapon sales to Qatar and the UAE, and cover comments by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the status of the Qatari luxury jet gift. We talk to GOP senators about French President Emmanuel Macron’s campaign for international recognition of a Palestinian state, examine the findings of a new Quinnipiac poll that illustrates deepening partisanship over Israel, and have the scoop on a push by the Orthodox Union calling on the Senate to pass the Educational Choice for Children Act. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Van Jones, Rev. Johnnie Moore and Rabbi Abraham Cooper.
What We’re Watching
- The House Appropriations Committee will conduct its full committee markup of the 2026 defense and homeland security funding bills.
- The House Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on the Department of Defense’s 2026 budget request with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine.
- The Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs will hold a hearing on the nomination of Sean Plankey to be director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
- The Zionist Organization of America is holding its annual legislative lobbying day at the Capitol.
- Argentine President Javier Milei is being presented with the Genesis Prize today at Jerusalem’s Museum of Tolerance.
What You Should Know
A QUICK WORD WITH JI’S LAHAV HARKOV
Since the Israeli strike on Iran’s air defenses in October, Jerusalem has sought a green light, or something close to it, from Washington to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites. President Donald Trump, however, repeatedly told Israel to hold off as he pursued a diplomatic agreement with Tehran to stop its enrichment program.
Now, after the Iranian nuclear program has continued apace and Trump has voiced frustration over Tehran’s intransigence, it seems that Jerusalem’s patience for diplomacy is running out.
Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea will be meeting Trump’s top negotiator Steve Witkoff on Friday ahead of the sixth round of talks with Iran in Oman on Sunday “in an additional attempt to clarify Israel’s stance,” an official in Jerusalem said, amid persistent reports and strong indications that Israel is prepared to strike Iran.
After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu last week, Trump said that if Tehran does not agree to give up uranium enrichment, the situation will get “very, very dire.” On Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that “there have been plenty of indications” that Iran is moving towards weaponization of its nuclear program, and Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the chief of CENTCOM, said that he presented Trump and Hegseth with numerous options to attack Iran if nuclear talks break down.
Hours later, the State Department began to move some personnel out of Iraq and the military suggested that servicemembers’ families depart the Middle East, while the U.K. warned about a potential “escalation of military activity” in the region. Such evacuations are often the first step to reduce risk ahead of a large-scale military operation.
Trump told reporters that the evacuations are happening because the Middle East “could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens.” More on this from Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod here.
Kurilla postponed his testimony before the Senate planned for Thursday. Staff at U.S. embassies and consulates throughout the Middle East were told to take safety precautions, and those stationed in Israel were told not to leave the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, Jerusalem or Beersheva.
Multiple news outlets published reports citing anonymous American officials that Israel is ready to strike Iran without help from the U.S. One possible reason for the timing — moving forward even as Washington and Tehran are set to enter a sixth round of talks on Sunday — is that Iran has reportedly begun to rebuild the air defenses that Israel destroyed last year. Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri reportedly said last month: “We are witnessing a remarkable improvement in the capability and readiness of the country’s air defense.”
PARIS PUSHBACK
GOP senators criticize France’s Macron for defying U.S. with Palestinian statehood push

French President Emmanuel Macron’s campaign for international recognition of a Palestinian state and championing of an upcoming United Nations conference on the subject despite U.S. opposition has received a frosty reception from Senate Republicans, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs reports. France is set to co-chair “The High Level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution” with Saudi Arabia at the U.N. headquarters in New York next week. Several senators described it as a distraction from U.S. efforts to secure peace in the region while praising the Trump administration’s decision to urge U.N. member states against participating.
Republican reactions: “It certainly sounds like they take us for granted and think that they can act without consequence. France has a long history of doing this in foreign policy. They’re consistently a problem and have been forever, but I’d say it’s very unhelpful of them at this present moment,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) told JI. “They’ve generally had a cozy relationship with Iran that is purely driven by economic ties, maybe some historic ties. It makes no sense to me. I don’t think it’s well received by our administration,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) said.
Read the full story here with additional comments from Sens. John Kennedy (R-LA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK).