A strong anti-incumbent mood is apparent in the electorate, based on primary results from North Carolina and Texas’ congressional primaries Tuesday night. Meanwhile, one sitting Democratic lawmaker who lost support from AIPAC is narrowly fending off a challenge from a virulently anti-Israel challenger who campaigned in the closing days of the primary against the Iran war. 

Big picture: There’s a deep skepticism of the political establishment throughout the country within both parties. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), a center-right hawk who was one of the stars of the 2018 GOP freshman class, badly lost to state Rep. Steve Toth, a right-wing challenger backed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). 

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is doing a bit better than public polls suggested, but still is only polling in the low 40s against MAGA-aligned Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that’s headed to a runoff.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who has been enmeshed in scandal after his extramarital affair with a staffer, who later died by suicide, became public, is leading social media influencer Brandon Herrera, but is also only polling in the low-40s and will also be headed to a runoff. 

On the Democratic side, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC), who was boosted to office in 2022 with AIPAC support but has since grown more critical of Israel, is clinging to a one-point lead (49-48%) over Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who would have become one of the most anti-Israel lawmakers in Congress if she was elected. Allam was backed by the far-left Justice Democrats and received support from a new super PAC attempting to elect anti-Israel lawmakers.

The Iran war may have played a key role in the primary. Foushee won the early vote by an eight-point margin, but Allam carried the Election Day vote by six points — after airing an ad blasting the war in Iran and baselessly accusing the United States of targeting civilians. 

And in a member-against-member Democratic primary in Texas, Rep. Al Green (D-TX), one of the most left-wing members of Congress who has been a reliable vote against Israel, is narrowly trailing newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX), a more mainstream Democrat. Menefee looks like the favorite, but is short of the 50% necessary to avoid a runoff. 

Meanwhile, former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is on track to reclaim his old suburban Dallas seat, unseating Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX) in the process. But he’s likely heading to a runoff as well. 

All told, pro-Israel Democrats can express a bit of relief toward Tuesday night’s primary results. Assuming Foushee holds on to victory, it blocks the path of a Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) prototype from getting elected to Congress. If Allam prevailed, she could have held that safely Democratic seat — and an anti-Israel platform — for many years. 

And Menefee’s advantage against Green in Texas is undoubtedly a win for Jewish voters, potentially replacing an anti-Israel detractor with a stronger ally (if he holds on in the runoff).

On the negative side, the successor to Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the House is expected to be Frederick Haynes III, the congresswoman’s pastor who delivered a scathing sermon against Israel one day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack against the Jewish state. Haynes was backed by Justice Democrats and an anti-Israel group (IMEU Policy Project), but didn’t have much serious primary competition. 

The highest-profile race of the night was Crockett’s Senate primary campaign against state Rep. James Talarico. Talarico prevailed, defeating Crockett 53-46%, with most votes counted. Talarico is hoping to emerge as a sleeper candidate in red-state Texas, and some Democrats believe he has an outside chance of succeeding — especially if he faces the scandal-plagued Paxton.

A few general election showdowns also now look set: Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), drawn into a tougher district, will face a rematch against Republican retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout this year. And Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), drawn into a more Republican district, will face Republican attorney Eric Flores — in a key bellwether race of whether Republicans will be able to maintain their recent inroads with Hispanic voters.