With the presidential election just four months away, the prospect of securing a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel before the end of President Joe Biden’s first term is narrowing.

A former senior Israeli official who was a key figure in forging ties between Israel and Arab countries told Jewish Insider that he does not think there is a chance for normalization in the near future.

“All of the vectors do not lead to normalization at this time,” they said, citing “the war situation [and] the upcoming election in the U.S.”

The source said there is a “lack of legitimacy in the Saudi street and the Arab world. Saudi Arabia as leader of the Muslim world cannot allow itself to normalize under these conditions.” They also noted that Abraham Accords states are “struggling” over their ties with Israel as its war with Hamas in Gaza extends into its 10th month.

The Biden administration and a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers have been working for years to secure a much-coveted Saudi deal as a follow-up to the Abraham Accords, the landmark Trump-era agreement that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establish public ties with Israel. 

A few of those lawmakers have expressed doubt that a deal, the security agreement portion of which would require congressional approval, can get done under former President Donald Trump if he retakes the White House in November. Among them are Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of Trump’s biggest supporters, who has led the effort to secure a deal alongside Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 

Despite being a Trump ally, Graham is adamant that a deal won’t be possible under his presidency because Democrats won’t approve a new treaty under a president they voted twice to impeach. 

“It’s got to be done in the lame-duck session [between November and January]. It can’t happen when Trump returns,” Graham told Jewish Insider this week of a deal, responding affirmatively when asked if this was because Democrats would not be on board. 

Some Democrats share his concern about the fate of a deal under a second Trump administration. 

“I think it’s much less likely for a variety of reasons, not least of which is, and this is just me saying this, Trump’s utter unpredictability and lack of focus,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a close Biden ally, told JI of the chances of a deal under a Trump administration. 

Coons expressed doubt that a deal would be possible before November given the congressional calendar and other time constraints. 

“We are currently only here another 25 days. Ratification of a new security treaty with the United States and the Saudis, in an environment this close to an election, in an environment this charged, I think would be exceptionally difficult. It would require the prompt announcement of that framework and we’d have to be called back into session for additional days,” Coons said.

“I’d say the odds are low, but not impossible.”

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) similarly expressed skepticism that a deal was possible between now and November, though he said he was operating with a different timeline than his colleagues because he does not believe Trump will be reelected. 

“Sen. Graham is probably pretty knowledgeable as to what can get done under Trump if he was to be elected again, but I don’t believe Donald Trump is going to be the next president. So I think we have an option here beyond November, a good one, with Joe Biden,” Kelly said. 

“It’s not impossible but it’s a challenge. You’re talking about four months. There’s a lot that would have to happen,” he added. “But it would be a remarkable change for Israel, for Saudi Arabia, for the security situation in the Middle East, and a great thing for us.”

What is possible in the lame-duck session will largely depend on the results of the election. Should Democrats lose the White House or the Senate, the party will be racing to pass as many legislative priorities as possible before handing over the reins to the GOP. Whether a security agreement could be squeezed in is unclear. 

Ruth Wasserman Lande, a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and the former chairwoman of the Knesset Caucus to Advance the Abraham Accords, disagreed with the assertion that time is up for an Israel-Saudi deal.

“There is no indication of Saudi Arabia’s lack of willingness to move forward with normalization with Israel, but they are waiting for two things,” she said. “One, a strong U.S. commitment to the process, which means they are waiting for election results, and two, a strong Israel with a clear victory [in the war in Gaza].”

Aryeh Lightstone, executive director of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute and the Trump administration’s special envoy for implementing the Accords, said Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations if the U.S. follows the Trump playbook.

“Following that paradigm, peace will happen,” Lightstone said. “I’m optimistic that when that happens, it will change the region forever. To do that requires serious leadership and follow-through.”