Tensions are running high across the Middle East after a week in which the U.S. and Iran lobbed threats at each other, dominating headlines, destabilizing markets and leaving many in the region unnerved at the prospect of renewed military action seven months after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran that included U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday, Trump warned that an “armada” was on its way to the Gulf — a reference to the aircraft carrier and fleet of fighter jets being redeployed from the South China Sea.

In response, Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned that Iran had its “finger on the trigger, more prepared than ever, ready to carry out the orders and measures of the supreme commander-in-chief.”  

Trump, true to form, has been unpredictable and inconsistent in his approach to Tehran — alternating between threatening force and teasing diplomacy. “Iran does want to talk, and we’ll talk,” Trump said at a signing ceremony in Davos on Thursday, just hours before he told reporters on Air Force One about the naval deployment to the Gulf. “We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use it,” he said on AF1, managing in one whiplash-inducing sentence to lob a threat at Iran while also offering it a theoretical off-ramp.

The president has proven that he is willing to engage in bold action — especially when it comes to Iran. One has only to look to the 2020 killing of Quds Force head Gen. Qassem Soleimani or the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June to see that the Trump administration is willing to engage militarily with Iran in ways prior administrations may have not. (Case in point: former President Joe Biden’s issuance in April 2024 of a one-word warning to Iran — “Don’t” — a day before Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel.)

More recently, the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro demonstrates that the Trump administration isn’t opposed to regime change. And indeed, that was a possibility the president has mulled vis-a-vis Tehran, telling Politico last weekend that it was “time to look for new leadership in Iran.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s inner circle and key allies are split over how to approach Iran. White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been a vocal backer of using diplomacy to quell tensions with Tehran.

“Iran needs to change its ways,” Witkoff told Bloomberg on Wednesday in Davos. “They need to do that. And if they do, if they indicate that they’re willing to do that, I think we can diplomatically settle this.”

Witkoff additionally expressed disappointment that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had been removed from the agenda at Davos after quietly being added last week, saying he had been “looking forward to meeting [Araghchi], because we have to build that communication channel, because the alternative to that is not a good alternative.”

Hours after Witkoff’s comments, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) posted a thinly veiled reference to the White House envoy, saying he was “unnerved by statements being made by people involved in the Iran file suggesting that if the ayatollah could change his ways, we might be able to reach an agreement with the regime.”

“Anyone who believes that the ayatollah is remotely interested in changing his ways does not understand the history of the ayatollah and the murderous regime,” Graham continued. “That’s the same as believing someone could have done a deal with Hitler.”

Within Iran, there are still hopes that U.S. action will topple Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Economist notes a joke making the rounds among Iranian civil servants: “We used to worry we’d become Venezuela. Now we worry we won’t.”

Heading into the weekend with tensions still high, those who have to live with the consequences of the continuation of the Iranian regime — from the Iranians who have faced years of repression to the Israelis preparing their bomb shelters for the next war to people across the region whose lives have been upended by Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza — will be watching closely for any signal from Trump and his top advisors about Washington’s next moves, and their reverberations around the world.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated on Sunday as President Donald Trump weighed options for striking Iran amid the regime’s crackdown on protesters, and Tehran threatened to strike U.S. bases in response.

Trump was briefed in recent days on options for sites to strike in Iran, The New York Times reported, after he issued several threats warning that the U.S. could get involved if the Iranian regime attempted to violently suppress the nationwide demonstrations that have racked the country for several weeks. 

The options include nonmilitary sites in Tehran, the Times wrote, as well as a large-scale aerial strike on military targets, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump has not yet made a decision whether to proceed and no U.S. military action has been taken in preparation thus far, U.S. officials told the Times and the Journal. 

In response to the reports, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said on Sunday that the country would attack American military bases in the region if the U.S. follows through, and even raised the possibility of a preemptive strike. Ghalibaf also threatened to attack regional shipping lanes and Israel.

Over the last week, Trump has made repeated threats against the Iranian regime that the U.S. was “locked and loaded” and would “rescue” demonstrators if security forces began killing them. Human rights groups say the death toll has reached over 200 as the protests, sparked by a severe economic crisis in the country, have spread, with protesters explicitly calling for regime change.

The president wrote on Truth Social on Saturday that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before” and that the “USA stands ready to help!!!” 

Trump has floated the possibility of regime change in Iran before. During the country’s June war with Israel, when the U.S. struck nuclear sites inside Iran, Trump wrote on social media that the U.S. knows “exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” Later, he wrote, “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

GOP lawmakers have voiced their support for renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) sharing a message to Khamenei on Fox News last week: “You need to understand, if you keep killing your people who are demanding a better life, Donald J. Trump is gonna kill you.”

A group of 14 House Democrats, including 11 first-term lawmakers, are currently visiting Israel with the AIPAC-affiliated American Israel Education Foundation.

The group includes Reps. Tim Kennedy (D-NY), Gil Cisneros (D-CA), Josh Riley (D-NY), Nellie Pou (D-NJ), Wesley Bell (D-MO), Laura Gillen (D-NY), Johnny Olszewski (D-MD), Eugene Vindman (D-VA), Luz Rivas (D-CA), Herb Conaway (D-NJ) and George Latimer (D-NY).

They make up a third of the 33 freshman Democratic members of the House — a sign of AIPAC’s continued pull among more centrist pro-Israel Democrats even as progressives have sought to make the group politically toxic. An AIEF-sponsored Republican trip which visited Israel last week included around the same number of freshmen lawmakers.

The trip comes at a time when tensions, even among Israel’s most vocal Democratic supporters, and the Israeli government are at a high point, amid concern with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel’s newly finalized plans to expand the war and conduct a military takeover of Gaza City.

The Democratic delegation also includes Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Pete Aguilar (D-CA) and Brad Schneider (D-IL). Aguilar is the No. 3 Democrat in the House.

The Democratic group met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday, who said that the “visits show the bi-partisan, steadfast alliance between the United State[s] and Israel, and of the true shared values between our peoples.”

“I told them that Israel continues to operate in accordance with international law, that it was dramatically increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and that Israel continues to strive with all its might and in every way possible to bring our hostages home,” Herzog said in a statement. “I also made clear that Hamas continues to hold, starve, torture and abuse the hostages, holding 50 still in captivity, in a deliberate and flagrant crime against humanity. I told them it was Hamas which was looting and stealing the aid, preventing the distribution to the civilians in Gaza. And that Hamas was blocking and rejecting a deal that would bring an end to the suffering.”

The Democratic group also appears to have visited the City of David.