As tensions run high in the Gulf following exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend, a vastly different security situation is taking shape in Lebanon, with the Trump administration’s top officials — Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio — taking responsibility for the respective outcomes.

Vance, who led last week’s negotiations with Iran in Switzerland, said upon his departure from the talks that a “good foundation” had been established between the countries. But that foundation displayed its first cracks just three days later, when Iranian drones fired on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to strike Iranian military infrastructure.

The vice president’s tone changed by the weekend, when he said that if Iran had “disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone. But violence will be met with violence.” The Iranians skipped technical talks slated for Sunday, saying that the U.S. had not fulfilled the condition of the MOU that would release billions in frozen funds.

Now, officials say that the U.S. and Iranian delegations have agreed to hold fire and will meet in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday to discuss the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

In Washington, officials are meanwhile celebrating the signing of a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon that would see Israel scale back its presence in southern Lebanon, creating two “pilot zones” for the Lebanese Armed Forces to administer.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ David Daoud cautioned that the celebration could be premature, telling JI that the fractious nature of Lebanon’s political and religious makeup — as well as Hezbollah’s role in the daily lives of many Lebanese citizens — makes the agreement difficult to implement, even with all the damage the Iranian-backed group has sustained over the last three years.



“Don’t underestimate Hezbollah’s ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat,” Daoud said. “I don’t want to overestimate their ability, but this group has proven itself very adaptable over the course of its existence.”

With the agreement signed, the next step will be its implementation. If the LAF is able to administer the pilot zones, there is the possibility of replicating the strategy elsewhere in southern Lebanon. The challenge will be when residents of southern Lebanon — which include Hezbollah members from the area — begin to return to villages south of the Litani River.

In Lebanon, the challenge is not only political will but Beirut’s capacity to address Hezbollah, which is deeply embedded in Lebanese society.

Both Vance and Rubio will have their work cut out for them as they navigate the coming weeks: Vance with continued talks with Iran and the pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Rubio with the implementation of an agreement he hailed as the “beginning of the beginning.” Whether they are successful depends more on the actors themselves than the agreements they sign.