by the numbers

New MI-11 poll shows Stevens leading Levin by 27 points

Stevens leads Levin 58% to 31% headed toward primary day, according to the new poll by Target Insyghts

U.S. House of Representatives

Reps. Andy Levin (D-MI) and Haley Stevens (D-MI)

New polling released Thursday in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District shows Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) with a 27-point lead over Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) two weeks before the Aug. 2 Democratic primary.

Fifty-eight percent of those surveyed said they plan to vote for Stevens, while 31% said they’ll cast their ballot for Levin. Eleven percent of voters remain undecided.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by landline and cell phone from July 18-20, and has a margin of error of 4.5%. The poll was conducted by Target Insyght, a Michigan-based firm, and was not commissioned by a campaign or outside group.

A source inside the Stevens campaign told Jewish Insider the data was consistent with its internal polling. Levin’s campaign spokesperson, Jenny Byer, called into question the reliability of Target Insyght and the poll.

“Our campaign’s highly regarded polling firm, Lake Research… shows a very tight race,” Byer said. Asked to share that internal polling, Byer did not immediately respond.

Byer also claimed that the Levin campaign has had a more robust ground game, arguing, “There is no way TV ads alone could produce that kind of result in her favor.”

Stevens led in every age and demographic category, except for voters aged 18 to 34, where she was tied with Levin.

The poll showed that Stevens and Levin are both viewed largely favorably by voters within the district. Seventy-one percent of voters said they viewed Stevens favorably and 20% unfavorably, compared to 65% favorable and 21% unfavorable for Levin.

“Polls like this at this time in the campaign usually exaggerate the winner if they have a big lead,” Target Insyght’s executive director, Ed Sarpolus, told JI. “So it’s probably going to be a lot closer, but it still shows the trend… Unless something happens, Haley is going to win.”

Sarpolus suggested the local pro-Israel community — many leaders of which have supported Stevens since early in the campaign — as well as national funding from AIPAC’s United Democracy Project super PAC have helped swing the vote against Levin.

The polling sample skewed somewhat more female — 56% women and 44% men — and Black — 14% — than the district as a whole, which Sarpolus credited to the demographic differences between the Democratic primary electorate and the district as a whole.