The tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran came close to collapsing overnight after the Islamic Republic fired 15 missiles and four drones at the United Arab Emirates. The question now is whether hostilities will resume in the coming days — just before next week’s major summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, slated to take place in Beijing.

Monday’s Iranian missile fire came amid ramped-up rhetoric from both Tehran and Washington over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and as the U.S. launched “Project Freedom” to assist vessels attempting to transit through the waterway. One of the drones fired yesterday by Iran hit the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, sparking a fire that injured three Indian workers. 

Iran’s attack on the UAE was widely condemned, with Saudi, Qatari, British and Indian officials denouncing the renewed strikes.

CENTCOM head Adm. Brad Cooper touted the initial success of the Project Freedom naval effort, which on its first day protected two U.S.-flagged ships traveling through the strait. It’s unclear the degree to which the endeavor will help with the resumption of normal activities in the waterway, which normally sees some 120 vessels passing through each day.

Later Monday, two U.S. naval ships came under heavy fire from Iran as they navigated through the passage. Iran claimed to have hit a warship, which CENTCOM denied. Trump told Fox News’ Trey Yingst that Iran would be “wipe[d] off the face of the earth” if it targeted ships being escorted through the strait. The Wall Street Journal reported that the president “for days has toggled between two competing impulses: severely punishing Iran for failing to abandon its nuclear work, and avoiding a significant escalation that could draw the U.S. deeper into a Middle East conflict.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, for his part, criticized Project Freedom — which he referred to as “Project Deadlock” — claiming that Pakistan-brokered talks between Washington and Tehran “are making progress” and warning that the U.S. and the UAE “should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers.”


Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the strikes on the UAE — albeit without mentioning Iran. “It is absolutely essential that the ceasefire be upheld and respected,” Sharif posted on X, “to allow necessary diplomatic space for dialogue leading to enduring peace and stability in the region.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to address the situation with Iran when he speaks to reporters from the White House briefing room at 3 p.m. on Tuesday, the first press briefing since White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt went on maternity leave.

Later this week, Rubio is set to head to the Vatican to meet with Pope Leo XIV amid tensions between the Holy See and the Trump administration over the pontiff’s comments on the war in Iran. It’s unclear if the trip will still happen if the situation in the Gulf further devolves.

The bigger question is what will happen next week, when Trump is slated to meet with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing — a summit already delayed once due to the war. Over the weekend, Beijing told Chinese firms to ignore U.S. sanctions on five Iran-linked oil refiners in the country.Beijing has attempted to play both sides of the conflict, encouraging Iran to pursue diplomacy while also providing the Islamic Republic with commercial support for use in the event of a resumption of hostilities. Should the summit take place, all eyes will be on Xi to see if he attempts to play Trump, as well.