Wesley Bell’s campaign is projecting confidence he will pull off an upset over Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) in next Tuesday’s closely watched primary in St. Louis, amid growing signs he is well-positioned to become the second candidate to unseat a Squad incumbent this election cycle.

With just a few days remaining until the primary concludes in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, Bell, the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County, has been gaining momentum against Bush, a two-term lawmaker who herself rose to office in 2021 after beating an incumbent.

The outspoken progressive is facing a formidable threat from Bell, a pro-Israel Democrat, as he seeks to claim a victory that would follow in the path of George Latimer, the Westchester County executive who in June defeated Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), another Squad member, in a high-profile New York primary battle.

“Wesley is finishing the last few days of this primary campaign the way he’s been running the whole time: talking with people, hearing their concerns and sharing his vision for better representation for this district,” Anjan Mukherjee, a spokesperson for the Bell campaign, said in a statement to Jewish Insider on Thursday. “That’s how he was elected as a city councilman and county prosecutor, and it’s why he will be the next member of Congress from MO-01.”

The campaign has reasons for positivity, including a new poll released last week by the political arm of Democratic Majority for Israel, DMFI PAC, showing Bell with a 48-42% lead over his opponent. 

The popular county prosecutor has won support from a wide coalition of backers including labor unions, Black leaders and the progressive group Indivisible, among other Democratic groups. Last week, he picked up an endorsement from the editorial board of The St. Louis Post Dispatch, the city’s largest newspaper.

In addition, Bell succeeded in chipping away at segments of Bush’s political base where she had drawn strong support, including Black women, according to a recent poll described to JI by a source familiar with its findings. Another poll, commissioned by the The National Black Empowerment Action Fund and released last week, suggested that Bell’s positions on public safety and infrastructure investment, among other key issues, are closely aligned with Black voters in the district.

Bell’s supporters say they feel cautiously optimistic as the race enters its final stretch.

“We’re pleased by the direction it’s going in,” said Mark Mellman, the chairman of DMFI PAC, which is among several pro-Israel groups backing the Bell campaign as Bush has grown increasingly hostile to Israel in the wake of Hamas’ attacks. “On the other hand,” he told JI on Thursday, adding a caveat, “it’s far from over.”

Bell has outraised Bush over the course of the primary, which has quietly become one of the most expensive of the cycle. The race has drawn several millions of dollars from an array of outside groups such as the super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, United Democracy Project, which is the biggest spender by far, having invested more than $8.5 million to boost Bell’s campaign.

The pro-Israel group has also conducted polling in the district that has shown margins similar to DMFI PAC’s recent survey, according to a source familiar with the matter.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for UDP, told JI. “Bush has an atrocious record on Israel and also has adopted a fringe agenda in Congress, including voting against President Biden. So we are going to make the case until Election Day.”

Bush’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Thursday.

The congresswoman’s supporters, such as the progressive group Justice Democrats, have been spending heavily in the race, even as they have struggled to compete with UDP’s warchest. In recent days, Bush’s campaign has also received contributions from some left-leaning colleagues including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Delia Ramirez (D-IL), as progressives on the Hill have raised concerns about the direction of the race.

Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), the House minority whip, is expected to campaign with Bush in her district on Friday. But while the embattled Squad member has claimed endorsements from Democratic leadership, the party’s establishment wing has largely kept its distance from the primary. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), for instance, has indicated that he has no plans to campaign for Bush in the district.

The local Jewish community, which has coalesced behind Bell, has been heavily involved in the race, including through a new group, St. Louis Votes, a nonpartisan nonprofit mobilizing Jewish voters to turn out in the election.

Benjamin Singer, the group’s CEO, told JI he anticipated “record turnout among Jewish St. Louisans, in part due to our grassroots organizing, door-knocking, phone banking and work with synagogues and other community institutions.”

“People are incredibly worried and upset by the skyrocketing antisemitism across our country,” he said, noting that his group is not telling voters who to support. “The Jewish people are simply fighting for our right to survive.”

Stacey Newman, a former state lawmaker leading Jewish outreach for Bell’s campaign, told JI that the Bell campaign office has been subjected to frequent protests which have included slurs and other hateful messages. 

“I’ve never worked on a race where I had to think about mine and my staff’s safety every day or had to check in with a security advisor frequently,” Newman said. But, she added, “it only seems to motivate volunteers to keep showing up.”

Bell’s campaign has organized several Jewish get-out-the-vote events, Jewish supporters of Bell’s campaign told JI, with another one set for this Sunday, focused on Orthodox precincts.

Meanwhile, Newman said that over 200 Jewish volunteers around the country are making daily calls for the campaign.

She said a group of 30 volunteers held a phone bank in Los Angeles on Thursday night and a synagogue in Skokie, Ill., has been making calls twice a week, while students affiliated with AIPAC and the Jewish Democratic Council of America, which has endorsed Bell, have been making calls almost daily.

In a statement to JI on Thursday, JDCA said it is expecting a win next week.

“JDCA endorsed Wesley Bell because of his commitment to public service and partnership with the Jewish community in his district,” said Sam Crystal, the organization’s chief of staff. “Bell not only shares our values but has taken the time to build strong and genuine relationships in the Jewish community, especially after Oct. 7th. The voters in Missouri’s 1st District know Wesley Bell and we’re confident that on Tuesday he’ll come out on top.”

Additional reporting contributed by JI’s senior congressional correspondent Marc Rod.