Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) is facing a serious primary threat from state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a left-wing challenger backed by several anti-Israel groups including Justice Democrats and TrackAIPAC.

Those groups are riding high, coming off of a recent wave of congressional primary victories in New York City and, most recently, Colorado, which they say point to a desire for a leftward shift in the Democratic Party and, in particular, rejection of support for Israel and pro-Israel groups among the Democratic base. Thanedar is one of their next top targets.

Thanedar is one of the few Democrats who has gotten more supportive of Israel during his tenure in Congress, even as the party has become more hostile to the Jewish state. As a state legislator in 2021, he co-sponsored a resolution calling for a halt in U.S. aid to Israel, which described Israel as an “apartheid state” and accused it of “countless human rights violations.”   

Thanedar sought to walk back his support for the resolution during his 2022 primary, but the AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project backed his opponent, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier, in that race. The independently wealthy Thanedar was able to counter with millions in his own spending.

After comfortably winning the contested 2022 primary, Thanedar met with supporters of Israel and traveled to the Jewish state, ultimately reinventing himself as a strong pro-Israel voice and picking up support from the Jewish community. That stance has since cost him support among progressives.

McKinney was the first challenger to an incumbent endorsed by Justice Democrats this cycle, and is also supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and former Rep. Andy Levin (D-MI) — all anti-Israel voices. (Former Rep. Brenda Lawrence, who was strongly pro-Israel during her time in office, is also endorsing McKinney’s campaign.)

Thanedar may be particularly vulnerable, given that he represents a district with a large Black population in and around Detroit with a history of Black representation. He’s also built something of an odd public persona in Washington, including an effort to force a vote on impeaching President Donald Trump earlier this year, which he ultimately walked back after pressure from House Democratic leadership.

“We haven’t seen any publicly available polling in this race yet in this primary, but Shri has to be feeling at least somewhat vulnerable here in that today he’s been able to avoid a heads-up primary against a Black Detroiter and now he’s got a heads up primary against a Black Detroiter,” Adrian Hemond, a Michigan political strategist, told Jewish Insider.

Given his district is in an “overwhelmingly majority Black city,” which had at least one Black member of Congress since the 1960s and now has none, “Congressman Thanedar is going to have some work ahead of him to get those folks to pull the lever for him and not to have Black representation in Congress.”

Hemond — who has been publicly critical of Thanedar as ideologically flexible — said that Thanedar isn’t necessarily disliked at home, but has a “reputation as being odd,” and has faced criticism over poor constituent services — often an Achilles heel for Democratic lawmakers who’ve lost primaries in recent years — in part because he has struggled to maintain staff in his office.

But, Hemond argued, McKinney — who has gone on the road visiting other states and districts to stump for fellow progressive candidates — shouldn’t be “confident at all” in victory because “Shri’s got a lot of money, and it’s not like this hasn’t been attempted before.”

McKinney, Hemond said, may be somewhat to the left of the district as a whole, but his views are largely aligned with the Democratic primary voter base, more so than Thanedar’s own. In order to win the district, he continued, McKinney will need to out-organize Thanedar on the ground, particularly in ensuring his supporters return their absentee ballots, which are set to go out at the end of the week.

“If you have a better absentee program than Shri Thanedar does, you should win this election,” Hemond continued, adding that “it looks like they’ve got the pieces in place to be able to run a really strong absentee chase effort, and if they do, it’s going to bode real well for him come 9 o’clock on election night.”