With the Democratic primary in New York’s 17th Congressional District coming down to a two-person race between veteran and former national security official Cait Conley and Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, an alleged Republican-linked group is spending big in an effort to block Conley from the nomination.

The district, currently represented by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), has one of the largest Jewish populations in the country and could be one of the Democrats’ best pickup opportunities come November. The primary is set for June 23.

The most recent public polling in the race conducted by a pro-Conley group, more than a month ago, showed Conley up seven points over Davidson, 29-22%, with other candidates in the mid-to-low single digits and 38% of voters undecided.

A previous poll conducted in late April on behalf of another candidate put Davidson in first with 26%, and Conley in second with 15%.

Conley is backed by various national Democratic groups including Democratic Majority for Israel and the New Dems, as well as Reps. Pat Ryan (D-NY) and Jason Crow (D-CO), while Davidson has been leaning into her support among local Democratic officials. 

Effie Phillips-Staley, a progressive Democratic candidate lagging behind in the race, also received a $3500 direct donation from the PAC affiliated with the anti-Israel, antisemitic group TrackAIPAC, which has endorsed her campaign. Phillips-Staley is one of the first candidates to directly receive funds from the group.

But a shadowy group that has been tenuously linked to GOP operatives recently announced plans to spend at least $1.5 million in the race against Conley, running ads echoing Davidson’s own messaging against Conley. The campaign suggests Republicans see Conley as the more competitive general election candidate.

The spending campaign has even caught the eye of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lives in the district and has not endorsed any candidate.

Clinton, in a post on X, called the field “talented” while sharing a story about the anti-Conley effort, warning that a “dark money Republican group is trying to manipulate the outcome of this and other key primaries.”

Jake Dilemani, a Democratic strategist who lives in the district, said that Davidson has “done a good job of defining herself and also defining Conley,” explaining that he’s seen a significant amount of negative Davidson ads targeting Conley, but little from Conley’s camp going after Davidson.

He said that none of the other candidates have been able to keep pace in their advertising with Conley or Davidson, making the two the frontrunners.

Davidson, Dilemani said, has been highlighting her work as a legislator and experience in public office, while she’s been aggressively targeting Conley for working for defense and intelligence firms, which Davidson has claimed were involved in Immigration and Customs Enforcement activities. Conley’s opponents have also sought to frame her as a carpetbagger.

“It all forms one big boogeyman that is unpopular writ large, but certainly [among] the Democratic primary electorate,” Dilemani said.

He said both candidates would be strong in the general election though, at this point, Davidson might leave the primary race with less baggage.

At the same time, Dilemani said, the GOP-linked ad campaign against Conley indicates that Republicans do not want to run against a Democrat with national security experience, like Conley.

“A dark money Republican super PAC just dropped $1 million in attack ads targeting me and lying about my record and who I am,” Conley said in a video on X on Monday. “That’s how scared Mike Lawler, Donald Trump, and MAGA Republicans are of facing me in November, because they know I’m the only Democrat that’s going to beat Lawler.”