The National Republican Congressional Committee announced on Monday that it’s targeting Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s (D-FL) South Florida district as a potential opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat in the 2026 midterms, honing in on one of the most heavily Jewish congressional districts in the country.

Moskowitz took office in January 2023 in the district that includes parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, including some of Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Boca Raton, Coral Springs and Parkland. The district, once safely Democratic, has been trending increasingly competitive in recent years, particularly in the wake of the Florida redistricting cycle. The Cook Political Report rates the district “Lean Democrat.”

“Out-of-touch Democrat Jared Moskowitz has repeatedly bent the knee to the most extreme wing of his party instead of putting his constituents — and common sense — first,” NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said in a statement, pointing to his votes against government funding legislation and a bill banning transgender athletes from participating in women’s sports. “Moskowitz is more interested in getting on TV than delivering for Floridians. With a strong Republican field ready to step up and challenge him, Moskowitz’s days in Congress are numbered.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not respond to a request for comment. Moskowitz was not on the DCCC’s initial list of endangered “frontline” incumbents. 

Moskowitz has cut a unique profile in Congress: he’s often shown a willingness to reach across the aisle in policymaking and has appeared on conservative media, even as he has also enjoyed sparring with Republicans. The former state senator also has bipartisan credentials back home, having been appointed by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis as the director of emergency management in the state, and later as a Broward County commissioner.

He has frequently worked with Republicans, and broken with many in his own party, on issues related to Israel, Iran and antisemitism, at times criticizing the Biden administration’s actions. Given that pro-Israel policy is a major priority for many voters in the district, it could become a focus on the campaign trail.

Moskowitz was briefly floated as a potential nominee for the Trump administration to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and is seen as having ambitions for a statewide campaign.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Florida, said that the district is “a jump ball,” noting that President Donald Trump and Republicans continue to gain ground in the state, but said that “the biggest issue the Republicans are going to have is that Jared is pretty skilled” as a politician. 

National Republicans did not make concerted efforts to flip the seat in the 2022 or 2024 cycles.

O’Connell said that the NRCC’s early campaign will likely be focused on attacking Moskowitz’s image and popularity to make him an easier target, before looking at specific candidates to recruit or back.

“If they can do that successfully and make the case that he’s not a common-sense Democrat but in fact someone who is hook, line and sinker a Democrat, they think that they can probably knock him off,” O’Connell continued.

Former state Rep. George Moraitis, a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, is the most prominent Republican to enter the race on the GOP side thus far. Moraitis is centering his campaign on issues including the economy and national security.

Jewish Democratic leaders in the district largely argue that Moskowitz is popular enough locally — particularly when it comes to pro-Israel policy — that he should be relatively safe from a challenge. Moskowitz won reelection in 2024 with 52% of the vote.

But the Republican inroads in the South Florida district are significant: After President Joe Biden won Moskowitz’s district by a comfortable 13-point margin in 2020, Vice President Kamala Harris barely eked by, with less than a two-point margin of victory four years later.

“I think they’ve underestimated Jared before, and they’ll continue to do that again. I’m convinced he’ll win reelection,” Mitch Ceasar, a former chair of the Broward County Democratic Party, told Jewish Insider. “And as to folks who sometimes think he takes an approach that’s not exactly in line with the party — well, he’s voting exactly in line with his district.”

Ceasar argued that, while the margins may be close, Moskowitz is a skilled campaigner and fundraiser and is deeply in tune with his district, making it difficult for Republicans to challenge him.

Former state Rep. Joseph Geller predicted that, in the more favorable environment Democrats are likely to face in 2026, Moskowitz will expand his margin of victory.

“They can make it a fight, [but] I don’t think they’re going to beat Jared,” Geller said. “That is a function of him doing what he needs to do, but I know Jared. He’s got to raise the money, he’s got to run the campaign, he’s got to get his message out, he’s got to have people see him. But he does those things. That’s why he’s in there to begin with.”

“If he does what he needs to do, and I have every reason to think he will, he will win,” Geller reiterated. He also urged progressives in the district not to “let perfect be the enemy of the good, and [Moskowitz] is a good congressman and a good public servant and a good Democrat.”

Ceasar said he did not have hard data on the issue, but speculated that the growing Orthodox Jewish community in the district, particularly in Boca Raton, may be driving some of the rightward shift in the district.

Geller attributed that shift more to trends unfavorable to Democrats nationally and statewide in the past two election cycles, more than any factors specific to the district itself. 

“I think Jared Moskowitz in ‘26 in a better environment does just fine,” Geller said.