Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) will enter Tuesday’s closely watched primary against Ed Gallrein, a Navy veteran and farmer backed by President Donald Trump, politically damaged — but it remains to be seen whether he’s taken enough hits to end his career in Congress.

Scott Jennings, a Kentucky-based GOP strategist and CNN political analyst, said that he’s spoken to operatives on both sides of the race who are very confident in victory. “Based on some of the polling I’ve personally seen and heard about, it feels like Massie’s image has been severely degraded by the sustained campaign that’s been run against him,” Jennings told Jewish Insider.

The question is whether Massie’s image has been tarnished enough to cause his defeat, or if he’ll emerge wounded but still standing. Jennings said that Massie has built a “popular brand” in the district during his seven terms in office, but also hasn’t before faced a full-frontal assault from Trump and the associated avalanche of spending.

Al Cross, a professor emeritus at the University of Kentucky School of Journalism and a political columnist, said he’s “loath to make predictions about that race, but Gallrein clearly has the momentum.”

He explained that Gallrein has received significant positive coverage in pro-Trump media, has stronger support among older voters, who are more likely to turn out, has a significant advantage in outside spending and has Trump’s influential endorsement. 

A Quantus Insights poll conducted this week showed Gallrein with a lead outside the margin of error, tallying 48% support from GOP voters, with Massie at 43%. Eight percent of voters remained undecided. 

In another late-breaking boost for Gallrein, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced its endorsement of the veteran on Thursday, a sign it sees Massie as vulnerable. 

Ultimately, Jennings said the race will be a test of voters’ willingness to support a representative who has been at odds with Trump. He said the influx of anti-Massie advertising has made the break between the two men clear to voters in a way that it may not have been before.

“The most popular Republican in the district is Donald Trump. And the thing Republicans want more than anything else in this world is for Donald Trump to succeed and for his party to help him succeed,” Jennings said. “And if they come to believe that you are an impediment to that success, they will punish you.”

“Now that having been said, there are certainly libertarian/contrarian voters in that district,” Jennings added, noting that the state has a long “contrarian streak,” particularly in Massie’s district.

But, voters also tend to harbor suspicions of first-time candidates they aren’t familiar with, Cross said, and Massie and his supporters have been working aggressively to frame Gallrein as untrustworthy, deceitful and not committed to the president.

Cross noted the recent polling as another positive sign for Gallrein — though he cautioned against putting too much stock in the results in a district where turnout could vary significantly from county to county.

Various Jewish and pro-Israel groups have poured money into the race attacking Massie and boosting Gallrein. The Republican Jewish Coalition has spent nearly $4 million, the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project has spent $3.2 million against Massie and Christians United for Israel allocated six figures to buy dozens of billboards across the district.

The pro-Massie campaign has also waded into antisemitic territory, most recently with a television ad by a Massie-allied group attacking conservative Jewish donor Paul Singer, superimposing his head alongside a large Star of David.

Meanwhile, William Paul, son of the state’s junior senator, Rand Paul (R-KY), went on an antisemitic tirade against Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in a Washington bar this week claiming that Jews would be responsible if Massie lost the race. 

Massie on Thursday announced plans to introduce the “AIPAC Act,” which would require the pro-Israel group, whose members are American citizens and do not take instruction from the Israeli government, to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. He said that the legislation would apply to interest groups supporting other countries as well.

The congressman has long described AIPAC and its members as vectors of malign foreign influence, accusations that critics say lean into antisemitic dual loyalty tropes.