Morgan Ortagus, the former deputy presidential envoy for Middle East peace, suggested on Thursday that normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was not a top priority for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, citing security concerns and his focus on ensuring he becomes king.

Ortagus made the comments while participating in an event at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies with Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at FDD, discussing his book, The Arab Case for Israel: And Other Essays from a Distant Conflict, for which Ortagus wrote the forward.

Ortagus served under White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff before joining the U.S. mission to the United Nations as a senior advisor last June. She quietly departed the Trump administration in February of this year.

Ortagus said that the Saudi crown prince’s top priority is becoming king and ensuring a peaceful transition from his father, King Salman, explaining that conversations about Riyadh normalizing relations with Israel should be viewed through that lens. 

“When you look at it from the lens of MBS, everybody is a politician of some sort. What’s the most important thing that he has to do in the next few years? Actually become king,” Ortagus said. “Does getting a deal with Israel help him become king or not? Does it help that peaceful transition?” 

“He got there in a very interesting manner and took out a lot of his family members in order to get where he is, but he still has that hurdle of becoming king and getting through the Shura Council and having that peaceful transition,” she continued. “I think, as for most politicians around the world, certainly here in America, that transition is more important to him than a peace deal in Israel.”

Following publication of this story, a representative for Ortagus reached out to note that her comments were not a suggestion that Saudi-Israeli normalization was unlikely and that she believes “a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel will happen under the Trump administration.” They added that her comments “were meant to explain why it’s hard and will take time, not to question whether it happens.”

Evangelical leader Mike Evans recently claimed that the crown prince told him that he was prepared to recognize Israel but for the opposition of his father. Saudi officials have publicly rejected the idea of normalization without a path to a Palestinian state.

Abdul-Hussain noted that he had broadly been supportive of MBS’ approach to regional security and economic issues since rising to power in 2015, but criticized what he described as a pivot on the issue of normalization with Israel. He said that he did not know the reason for the shift by the Saudis, but surmised that economic factors were at play.

While Ortagus concurred that economic issues did play a role, she argued that security concerns after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel prompted the crown prince’s reversal. 

“The threats to MBS and to the king and to the whole government in Saudi Arabia went up exponentially after Oct. 7,” Ortagus said. “It was very low before, so I think it’s also very much a security situation.”

Turning to the possibility of Israel and Lebanon normalizing ties and working together to disarm Hezbollah, Ortagus and Abdul-Hussain expressed doubt that the warnings from senior Lebanese officials of a possible civil war if Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese Armed Forces’ decision to keep Gen. Rodolphe Haykal in charge of the LAF — despite Haykal being sympathetic to Hezbollah — were obstacles to reaching a deal.

“I think it comes down to the capabilities, not just the capabilities of the LAF, but the institutional will to actually do the disarmament of Hezbollah, which just fundamentally is not there,” Ortagus said.

Abdul-Hussain shared Ortagus’ skepticism about the Lebanese government’s commitment to reaching a deal.

“Knowing Lebanese politicians, I expect President [Joseph] Aoun to run for the exit. He’s thinking, ‘Well, if they’re talking to Hezbollah too, then talking to me doesn’t mean much,’” Abdul-Hussain said of the Lebanese president. “I think we in this town are not really resolved on which direction we’re going, and I want us to go in the direction of: We will not do the ceasefire the way Hezbollah wants it to be.”

Both Abdul-Hussain and Ortagus rejected the idea that Israel and Lebanon could successfully normalize relations without Hezbollah being disarmed. Ortagus also said that all parties involved in the U.S.-led peace talks between Israel and Lebanon “have to do a better job of making the argument, specifically to the Shia from the south … that you will have a better life” if the two countries normalize relations and disarm Hezbollah.

Ortagus and her partner, Antoun Sehanaoui, a Lebanese banker and producer, also hosted a book party in Georgetown for Abdul-Hussain on Thursday evening, where she praised Abdul-Husain and Sehanaoui for speaking out in favor of peace with Israel, a stance she said puts their lives, livelihoods and families in Lebanon at risk.

Abdul-Husain said his book came about through his own personal story, growing up in a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon and being educated that Israel was evil and aimed to conquer Lebanon. But he said that as he learned Hebrew and came to understand Israel and its true goals, his views continued to evolve, “until I reached the point I thought what they had taught us was not really correct.”

“I came up with my own ideas, and I thought that Israel is a successful story, whether we like it or not, whether we think it caused us injustice or not, it’s still a successful story,” Abdul-Hussain said. “If you are Arab or Palestinian, and you think that Israel caused you injustice, or is still causing you injustice, then moving on and forgetting about and taking this injustice is much more to your interest than trying to wind the clock back to a time when Israel did not exist and start building from there.”

He said that evidence shows that the stronger the relations an Arab state has with Israel, the more successful it is, economically and otherwise.

On Iran, at the FDD event, Ortagus argued that the U.S. is winning the war despite it still being unfinished more than 100 days since its launch, citing Iran’s heavily degraded military capabilities and what she described as the weak status of the current regime. 

“Nothing about war now is easy and simple. No one’s going on a ship anymore to sign a declaration of the end of the war, it’s just not how it happens,” Ortagus said. “So you have to look at the president’s and the administration’s goals, and as much as people like to critique every single thing this president and administration does, he is the only president in 47 years of the Islamic Republic to be willing to take kinetic action in order to coerce the regime back to the negotiating table.”

“His negotiators, by the way, should be able to get a great deal because of the amount of leverage that he’s given them. The president talks about this all the time. He talks about what he’s done to destroy their nuclear facilities, their military capabilities, their Navy, their Air Force. We fly with impunity over their skies,” she continued. “To everyone sort of prognosticating that this has somehow been a failure. Look at the metrics, look at the facts, look at the capabilities, look at the regime strength today and look at their economy. … I just think it’s a matter of time before this regime falls.”

She suggested that the mass pro-democracy protests in Iran earlier this year forced President Donald Trump to expedite his plans to target the regime and what remains of its nuclear program while defending the extended length of the conflict.”

“All of these protestations by Europeans and other feckless individuals who never get in the fight are wrong,” Ortagus said. “Obviously, I think, we had a moment of opportunity after the protest earlier this year where we had to decide on action probably a little bit earlier than we had planned on, because it was the moment when we, when the president clearly told the people of Iran, the protesters that we were going to stand by them, and that help is on the way, so help had to get on the way.”

Ortagus described the president as “the leading hawk at the White House,” saying he “has fundamentally understood this issue since his very first campaign in 2016, of how destabilizing it would be for the region if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon. He set red lines for himself and said it will never happen on my watch, and I think he very much understands that any deal cannot be like the JCPOA [the 2015 nuclear deal] has to make sure that they can’t actually obtain a nuclear weapon. I think he’s very clear on that, and I know that his negotiators are.”

Ortagus said she believed both the president and U.S. negotiators are of the view that not reaching a deal with Iran, because the regime would not make necessary concessions, “is somewhat better than a bad deal.”

She suggested that the White House was also aware of the logistical hurdles involved in getting any agreement approved by the Senate, warning that Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will not vote to approve a deal that does not address key concerns about the regime, its terror financing network and its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

“Anybody who’s not a freshman senator was around during JCPOA, and Republican senators have been very on the record for what they would accept in any deal with Iran, certainly even during the Biden years,” Ortagus said. “Republican senators are going to get a say in whatever the final deal looks like. The beauty of our democracy is this comes down to not only what the president is willing to sign, and I happen to think that he’s one of the most hawkish people in the room on this issue, it also comes down to what the U.S. Senate and what Republicans in the Senate are going to abide by.”

This story was updated on June 12 to reflect clarifications from Ortagus’ representative about her comments on Saudi-Israel normalization.

Major Gulf powers are coming together in rare lockstep amid Iran’s strikes around the region, with the United Arab Emirates closing its embassy in Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council declaring it retains the right to respond.

After the U.S. and Israel launched a major operation against Iran on Saturday, the regime struck sites in at least nine countries around the Middle East, including Israel, Jordan, Syria and every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Despite claiming it is aiming at U.S. military assets in the region, Iran has struck widely at civilian infrastructure, including hotels, residential neighborhoods and airports in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq. At least 12 civilians were killed in Israel over the weekend, along with three U.S. servicemembers.

On Saturday, the first day of the operation, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed spoke by phone with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss Iran’s aggression and their response, a significant development and sign of the seriousness of the issue amid a regional rift between the two major powers.

The UAE has taken the brunt of much of Iran’s malign activity — its Ministry of Defense said Sunday that the country had been targeted by 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones from Iran. Three civilians were killed and 58 injured in the barrage. 

Shortly after, Abu Dhabi announced the closure of its embassy in Tehran and the withdrawal of its entire diplomatic mission, citing Iran’s “hostile attacks against civilian sites … in a serious and irresponsible escalation [that] constitute a flagrant violation of national sovereignty.” The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also summoned the Iranian ambassador to the UAE and “delivered a strongly worded note of protest” about Iran’s “terrorist attacks and assault.”

Also on Sunday, the ministerial council of the GCC held a meeting over video conference and issued a statement strongly condemning Iran’s attacks and affirming the countries’ “legal right to respond.” 

“The Council also expressed full solidarity among the GCC countries and their unified stance in confronting these attacks, stressing that the security of GCC member states is indivisible, and that any attack against any member state constitutes a direct attack against all GCC countries,” the statement went on. The countries “will take all necessary measures to defend their security and stability and to protect their territories, citizens, and residents, including the option of responding to the aggression,” they pledged.

The U.S. also joined the GCC in another statement Sunday, saying that Iran’s “targeting of civilians and of countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilizing behavior.”

During Tuesday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the leaders strengthened their relationship and confirmed the completion of several deals. Any plan to utilize such transactions as part of normalization with Israel, however, was notably absent. 

While taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office, Trump confirmed that the U.S. would sell Saudi Arabia F-35 fighter jets of similar caliber to Israel’s. At a dinner that evening, the president added that a strategic security agreement had crossed the finish line, while also formally naming Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally. On Wednesday, the two countries announced a strategic artificial intelligence partnership.

“The main takeaway of the visit was the normalization of the U.S.-Saudi relationship,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former State Department negotiator. “[There was] very little, it seemed to me, not surprisingly, on the side of normalization to Israel. It’s almost as if Israel was sort of an afterthought this visit.”

When asked by reporters why normalization with Israel was not prioritized, Trump did not provide much of a response, instead asserting that Israel is “going to be happy.”

Observers had anticipated that Trump would roll out the red carpet for MBS on his visit to Washington. What remained unknown was whether the deepening ties between Washington and Riyadh would come with progress between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the United States’ closest ally in the region.

But the deals announced this week were made without any apparent requirement of progress toward normalization, leading some experts and leaders of pro-Israel groups to raise questions about the Trump administration’s strategy. 

“By the way this was done, President Trump seems to have elevated the partnerships with Saudi Arabia and maybe, to some degree, with other Gulf states, above pretty much all other U.S. partnerships, including Israel,” said Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel under former President Barack Obama. 

“So that means that other considerations, like ensuring the right incentives are still in place for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel or ensuring that military sales are done in a way that protects U.S. interests and Israel’s security interests, may be less important than they have been under previous administrations.”

Shapiro said that while it is reasonable for the U.S. to strengthen its partnerships with Gulf countries, the deals gave away major incentives for normalization “without knowing whether it can be achieved later.” He also added that it came without guarantees from the Saudi government on limiting military cooperation with China and Russia. 

Anne Dreazen, the vice president for the American Jewish Committee’s Center for a New Middle East, told JI that Saudi-Israeli normalization could not have been achieved on this visit, adding that it was “not in the cards right now.”

“Now the paradigm is shifting where it’s about peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia being logical and good based on its own merits, when they can get the politics right and when they can reach agreement on the Palestinian issue,” said Anne Dreazen, the vice president for the American Jewish Committee’s Center for a New Middle East.

“Right now we’re not there. The politics in Israel and Saudi Arabia are not right for this,” said Dreazen. “I think President Trump realized that it wasn’t going to happen in this visit and wanted to move ahead with these deals because there’s a strong perception that making some deals with Saudi Arabia is in America’s interest.”

Dreazen, however, still believes normalization is “going to happen,” adding that she has confidence from conversations with Saudi officials that political differences will be resolved in the future. 

Trump’s decision to make significant deals with Saudi Arabia while not pressing for normalization suggests the White House is taking a different approach than in the past, Dreazen argued.

“Now the paradigm is shifting where it’s about peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia being logical and good based on its own merits, when they can get the politics right and when they can reach agreement on the Palestinian issue,” said Dreazen, a shift from how former President Joe Biden approached negotiations.

But with MBS leaving Washington with so many deliverables, it’s unclear whether he will still prioritize normalization. 

The Israelis are “going to be right to worry that the Saudis may feel like they’ve gotten everything they want and don’t have any need left for normalization,” Shapiro said. 

Following his Oval Office meeting with Trump, the Saudi crown prince told reporters, “We want to be part of the Abraham Accords, but we want also to be sure that [we] secure a clear path [toward a] two-state solution.”

Leaders of pro-Israel groups said normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia should remain a top policy priority for the U.S.

“The United States would be stronger and more secure if our major non-NATO allies worked together to promote regional peace, stability and prosperity,” said AIPAC spokesman Marshall Wittmann. “This objective would be advanced if Saudi Arabia joined the Abraham Accords, and U.S. leaders should urge it to do so.”

In a statement released on Wednesday, Democratic Majority for Israel’s president and CEO, Brian Romick, said that expanding the Abraham Accords must be “central to U.S. policy,” and urged Congress to play an active role in reviewing U.S. defense agreements with Saudi Arabia.

“Any substantial upgrade in the U.S.–Saudi relationship — including access to advanced U.S. defense systems — must be tied to meaningful, measurable progress toward Saudi-Israeli normalization,” Romick said in a statement. “It is now incumbent on the Trump Administration to use our leverage with Saudi Arabia to make real progress toward normalization.”

“There’s clearly a political dynamic going on here,” said Israel Policy Forum chief policy officer Michael Koplow. “Trump went out of his way to almost poke at the Israelis. He implied that [the U.S. is] OK with the Saudis getting F-35s but [the Israelis] want the Saudis to get a less advanced version, and he almost seemed to boast about the fact that he’s going to give the Saudis whatever he wants no matter what Israel says.”

Trump’s promise of F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia has raised questions about which model and allowances Riyadh will receive and whether Israel will maintain its qualitative military edge, which the U.S. is bound by law to uphold. To date, Israel is the only country in the Middle East to have obtained the fighter jet. 

U.S. officials and experts told Reuters that the F-35 jets the U.S. plans to sell to Saudi Arabia will lack superior features that Israel’s fleet has.

Israel Policy Forum chief policy officer Michael Koplow voiced concerns about the security aspect of the deals. 

“It doesn’t surprise me that all of these things are going ahead,” said Koplow. “What surprises me more is that some of the things that have been discussed over the past couple of days seem to put Israel in a more difficult security position, particularly this question of sales of F-35s.”

Israel’s government, meanwhile, has stayed largely quiet about the F-35 sales, though the Israeli Air Force has objected to the deal, warning that it could damage Israel’s air superiority in the region   

“There’s clearly a political dynamic going on here,” said Koplow. “Trump went out of his way to almost poke at the Israelis. He implied that [the U.S. is] OK with the Saudis getting F-35s but [the Israelis] want the Saudis to get a less advanced version, and he almost seemed to boast about the fact that he’s going to give the Saudis whatever he wants no matter what Israel says.”

President Donald Trump is hosting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday at the White House, marking the first time MBS has visited Washington since 2018. 

Trump plans to roll out the red carpet for the visit, which includes a welcome ceremony, bilateral meeting in the Oval Office and a black-tie dinner in the evening. Tiger Woods and Elon Musk are expected to be in attendance at the dinner, among other high-profile attendees. “We’re more than meeting,” Trump said late Friday. “We’re honoring Saudi Arabia, the crown prince.” 

The visit is not an official state visit, as MBS is not Saudi Arabia’s head of state; however, the crown prince holds almost all responsibility in ruling the kingdom. 

The bilateral meeting will feature high-stakes discussions on several key issues, including the sale of F-35 fighter jets, Saudi-Israel normalization and a possible U.S.–Saudi defense pact. Experts told Jewish Insider such an agreement is likely to be modeled after the assurances Trump gave Qatar in September, in the wake of an Israeli strike on Hamas in the Gulf state, when he issued an executive order stating that the U.S. will regard “any armed attack” on Qatar “as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.” 

Trump announced on Monday he would approve the sale of the F-35s to Riyadh, helping the Saudis secure a long-coveted deal and making them the first country in the Middle East other than Israel to obtain the advanced fighter jets. “They want to buy. They are a great ally. We will be doing that. We will be selling them F-35s,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. 

Concerns remain within the foreign policy community over the impact that the sale of F-35s will have on the military balance in the region and Israel’s qualitative military edge, which the U.S. is bound by law to uphold. Experts also cautioned the risks of transferring sensitive technology to Riyadh after Saudi naval forces conducted a joint military exercise with China last month. Israel has requested that such a sale be conditioned on the kingdom joining the Abraham Accords, however Trump made no mention of such a provision. 

Trump, however, is planning to discuss Saudi normalization with Israel. “The Abraham Accords will be a part we’re going to be discussing,” Trump said Friday. “I hope that Saudi Arabia will be going into the Abraham Accords fairly shortly.” 

Despite the president’s optimism, the hope of adding Riyadh to the Abraham Accords is likely a lot more wishcasting than a reflection of diplomatic progress in the region. Experts told JI that the Trump administration should use the aforementioned agreements as leverage tied to normalization, as has been the case under past administrations, but Trump is poised to take a different approach. 

The gap between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains wide. Saudi officials have said they require an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution as a prerequisite to normalizing ties, something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — and much of the Israeli public — is firmly against. Experts told JI that after two years of war in Gaza, the security deals are likely not enticing enough on their own and Saudi Arabia may be holding out for more concessions before joining the Abraham Accords.

President Donald Trump is slated to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday in a meeting that experts told Jewish Insider is expected to move forward a U.S.-Saudi defense pact and sale of F-35 fighter jets to the kingdom — yet normalization with Israel, once tied to the prospect of such deals, remains elusive. 

U.S. and Saudi officials have been holding intense negotiations to finalize a defense agreement ahead of the visit, according to reports. Since an Iranian attack on Saudi oil refineries in 2019, Riyadh has sought to formalize American security guarantees, according to Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Saudi Arabia is an important American security partner,” said Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The United States and Saudi Arabia have been working toward a regional security architecture for years.”

The agreement is expected to be modeled after the assurances Trump gave to Qatar in a September executive order, which stated that the U.S. will regard “any armed attack” on Qatar “as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.” 

“Having for better or worse made the commitment to Qatar, it seems to me unfathomable that the administration wouldn’t offer at least the same commitment to Saudi Arabia and probably to other traditional Gulf partners like the UAE who over the years have often been more steadfast and reliable allies in their support for U.S. regional and global objectives,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. 

Al-Omari said such guarantees help to solidify American leadership in the Middle East and “serve to limit Chinese influence in the region.” 

“It is almost certain that Saudi Arabia will get defense guarantees in this visit,” said Al-Omari. “Providing such guarantees is the correct policy. The security of Saudi Arabia is an American interest, and is key to deter Iran and its proxies from destabilizing the Kingdom. It also sends a clear message that the U.S. remains committed to its Middle East allies.”

Should the defense agreement be formalized as an executive order, like with the Qatar deal, it will need to be enforced by the next president to remain effective. Bowman argued that any serious agreement should instead go through the appropriate process even if it takes time.

“[The security deal] is essentially a treaty that should go through the U.S. Senate,” said Bowman. “That’s not going to be quick, but if we really believe what we’re saying about the value of Saudi Arabia as a security partner … then why not take the time and build consensus and explain that to the American people and their representatives on Capitol Hill and make the case?”

Hannah said that a more formal defense pact is also in Saudi Arabia’s best interest. 

“The problem for the Saudis is that until recently, they were holding out for an actual Senate-approved defense treaty that would have made the U.S. commitment to the Kingdom’s future wellbeing a bipartisan and permanent feature of the American foreign policy landscape rather than the temporary pledge of a polarizing, mercurial, and increasingly unpopular president who will be gone in three years time,” said Hannah. “That’s a pretty public climb down and trimming of ambitions from the kind of history-making agreement and lasting transformation of U.S.-Saudi ties that MBS has been insisting that he needed for the past three years.”

“It is likely that an announcement about the F-35s will be made,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “However, turning such an announcement into reality will have to contend with a number of challenges — whether the legal requirement to maintain Israel’s [qualitative military edge is met], or other congressional processes required to finalize such a deal.”

Riyadh is also reportedly seeking to purchase a weapons package from the U.S. that would include F-35 fighter jets. If agreed upon, Saudi Arabia would become the first nation in the Middle East other than Israel to procure it. 

The Trump administration has been open to such a deal this year, but questions still remain regarding the impact such an agreement might have, including on Israel’s qualitative military edge, which the U.S. is bound by law to uphold.

“It is likely that an announcement about the F-35s will be made,” said Al-Omari. “However, turning such an announcement into reality will have to contend with a number of challenges — whether the legal requirement to maintain Israel’s [qualitative military edge is met], or other congressional processes required to finalize such a deal.”

Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter said in an interview published on Thursday by The Jerusalem Post that Israel “prefer[s] that Turkey not receive F-35 [fighter jet]s from the U.S.” but said that “there’s no indication that Israel’s qualitative edge will be compromised” if Saudi Arabia were to acquire them.

The potential F-35 deal has also prompted concern on the risks of transferring sensitive technology to Riyadh while it cooperates militarily with China, a key U.S. adversary. 

“Guess what the Saudi military forces did last month? Last month, Saudi naval forces conducted a military exercise with China,” said Bowman. “That’s not a good look for a country. That’s not going to sit well with a lot of folks on Capitol Hill.” 

Bowman said that in the past, Saudi Arabia has suggested they would turn to Beijing if they couldn’t get “what they wanted” militarily from the U.S. 

Should the Trump administration formally approve the sale, it is required by law to be submitted to Congress where there is first a non-statutory, but normally respected, review process that involves leaders of the two foreign relations committees. However, it is highly unlikely for the sale to be stopped even if lawmakers disapprove, once the administration decides to formally submit the sale to Congress.

“The law provides a mechanism for Congress to try to stop an arms sale up to the point of delivery, but that requires both chambers to pass joint resolutions of disapproval and then overcome a prospective presidential veto,” said Bowman. “The Congressional Research Service noted last year that Congress has never blocked a proposed arms sale this way.”

While the Biden administration had tied such security deals to progress on normalization, Al-Omari said that the Trump White House has “abandoned this approach.”

“I think it would be folly not to insist that the ultimate integration of these planes into the Saudi order of battle be tied to normalization and a more fundamental and permanent transformation in Saudi-Israel relations and the regional security landscape,” said Hannah. 

Bowman agreed, “The F-35, to me, provides valuable leverage in getting Riyadh to recognize the world’s only majority Jewish state. Forfeiting that leverage would be unwise. I can’t imagine giving our nation’s most advanced fighter jet to a country that refuses to normalize relations with our best ally in the Middle East.” 

While experts believe Trump is unlikely to push normalization in the upcoming meeting, they say it is still something the Trump administration is pursuing. 

“The price for MBS clearly has gone up after two years of devastation in Gaza — and more important, two years of non-stop 24/7 coverage in Arab media of Palestinian suffering and carnage,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “MBS knows how significant his entry into the Middle East peace club will be for regional and global politics and he seems set on delivering something significant in exchange.” 

“President Trump is still committed to pushing forward Saudi-Israeli normalization,” said Al-Omari. “Yet he is also aware that the gap between the two countries at the moment is too wide to bridge.” 

Saudi officials have said they require an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution as a prerequisite to normalizing ties. Hannah said that he does not expect progress towards normalization during the trip, also adding that in the wake of the war in Gaza, Riyadh may be looking to gain more concessions before formally entering a peace agreement.

“The price for MBS clearly has gone up after two years of devastation in Gaza — and more important, two years of non-stop 24/7 coverage in Arab media of Palestinian suffering and carnage. MBS knows how significant his entry into the Middle East peace club will be for regional and global politics and he seems set on delivering something significant in exchange.” 

“I wouldn’t rule out that Trump might be willing during the visit to show greater openness and even U.S. support for the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state along lines articulated by [MBS] in an effort to inch him along a little faster on normalization,” Hannah added. “Trump’s pressure and powers of persuasion, and his ability to offer other economic and military incentives to [MBS], also might help temper the crown prince’s demands and ambitions at the margins if the side payments are significant enough.”

Still, Al-Omari believes there are other ways the Trump administration could utilize the upcoming meeting to gain progress towards this goal.

“Instead, the U.S. should explore areas of economic cooperation between the two countries,” said Al-Omari. “That may fall short of full normalization, but would lay the groundwork for future progress.”