Ahead of Tuesday’s primary in Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District in the heart of Philadelphia, Chris Rabb seems to be surging, local political analysts said, in spite of recent controversies surrounding the far-left state lawmaker.

Rabb is facing off against state Sen. Sharif Street, a former state Democratic Party chair, and Ala Stanford, a physician and activist. Rabb has most recently come under scrutiny for sharing an Instagram post blaming “Zionists” for the massacre at a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, a post Rabb’s campaign claimed came from an unidentified former staffer.

Rabb closed last quarter as the top fundraiser in the race, bringing in nearly double what either of his rivals raised. 314 Action, a Democratic pro-science group that was a major outside backer of Stanford, pulled its ads off television last week following polling showing her support had “declined precipitously in recent weeks,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

A previous 314 Action poll last month had found Stanford, seen as the favorite for much of the race, with a strong lead. But she and her campaign have suffered a series of high-profile and largely self-inflicted stumbles in recent weeks — including recent scrutiny of her finances, a fumbled interview about immigration enforcement and her withdrawal from a televised debate.

“A month ago, it looked like Dr. Stanford was surging, from someone who had never run for office to being a first time candidate and winning a congressional seat,” J.J. Balaban, a Pennsylvania Democratic strategist, told Jewish Insider. “And then you’ve seen, kind of remarkably, a series of self-inflicted errors that some think have made it a lot less likely that she’s going to win.”

Balaban said that Rabb has benefited from the fact that both Stanford and Street have “seemed to accumulate a significant amount of baggage.” 

“I think Rabb has been able to take advantage of opposition that … was surprisingly weak, and present himself as new and different and a break from the local Democratic machine which had largely coalesced around Sharif Street,” Balaban said.

He said Rabb had also been “very fortunate that he has, for the most part, escaped serious scrutiny because it was thought that Dr. Stanford was on a path to win,” allowing him to gain steam and seize the opening when her campaign struggled. Rabb has not faced significant attacks in the race, according to Balaban — including over the Bondi Beach controversy.

“He’s probably peaking at the right time,” Balaban said.

Larry Ceisler, a public affairs executive who lives in the district, said that the state of the race is hard to judge, but agreed that with national backing from a host of prominent left-wing leaders and the progressive lane to himself, Rabb seems to have the momentum in the lead-up to Tuesday’s election. Ceisler is a former Rabb supporter, and said he had donated to both Street and Stanford in this race.

Street has the strongest organizational support from local Democratic officials and union groups, but has at times had strained relations with other members of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, making it unlikely, in Ceisler’s view, that other Democratic leaders in the state will intervene in the race on his behalf.

Balaban noted that Street has faced a significant amount of criticism for working with Republicans in the 2021 redistricting cycle on a map that would have given Street a strong chance to win a seat, while potentially hurting other Democrats. That episode set him at odds with Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), who represents a neighboring district.

Balaban said that Street’s time as state Democratic Party chair is also not well-regarded.

Reflecting Rabb’s increasing chances of victory, Gov. Josh Shapiro quietly urged a local trade union backing Street not to run negative ads against Stanford, for fear of elevating Rabb, according to an Axios report.

Rabb and Shapiro have long clashed at the state level over immigration and other issues, and Rabb has also made anti-Israel activism a centerpiece of his campaign and faced accusations of antisemitism.

Both Ceisler and Balaban were skeptical of the extent of Shapiro’s involvement or that it would have any significant impact on the race, and did not expect Shapiro to get involved publicly.

Rabb’s campaign has focused heavily on his opposition to Israel and AIPAC in its messaging. In addition to the Bondi Beach post, Rabb also rallied with far-left streamer Hasan Piker, who has come under fire from a range of Democrats for antisemitism and support for terrorism.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is set to visit Philadelphia on Friday for a rally with Rabb.

Rabb and outside backers asserted, with shaky evidence, that AIPAC was funding 314 Action’s pro-Stanford independent expenditure effort. But AIPAC on Tuesday took the rare step of openly denying any involvement in the primary.

“Millions of Americans want to help tough, principled Democrats defeat extremist candidates. Despite conspiracy theories, not every dollar spent in that effort comes via AIPAC,” the group said on X.

314 Action, which critics have claimed is operating as an AIPAC cutout, also publicly denied taking any funding from AIPAC.

“[Rabb] spent his entire campaign running on a lie — and voters should not believe a word he says. We have not taken a dime from AIPAC in two years. Period,” 314 Action Executive Director Erik Polyak said on X.

Ceisler, who is Jewish, called the focus on Israel and AIPAC in the race upsetting and distressing, and said rhetoric has at times “crossed the line into antisemitism and dual loyalties.”

“This is a relatively poor district, lower-middle income district on the whole, and the fact that Israel and AIPAC is talked about so much in this race, when, if you probably did a poll, it might not hit the first 15-20 issues, is really disconcerting to me, and and I think that there’s been just a lot of untruths that have been that have been thrown around,” he told JI.

Balaban said that the environment has made it “easier for a loudly anti-Israel candidate like Chris Rabb to get traction,” but said that it was “surprising and disappointing that more attention wasn’t given to his very ugly accusation that the Bondi Beach massacre was a false flag operation.”