The results in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District last night may not make national headlines, but should be sending a shock wave across Democratic campaigns and pro-Israel institutions. 

Analilia Mejia, the far-left, Bernie Sanders-endorsed activist, narrowly led in a crowded field of Democratic candidates in a primary election for an affluent, moderate-minded district, despite long odds.  

With most votes counted, Mejia leads former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), who was considered the favorite, 29-28%. Former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, favored by pro-Israel groups and endorsed by Democratic Majority for Israel, finished in third place, winning just 17% of the vote.

Mejia’s apparent primary victory is another sign that the socialist wing of the Democratic Party — as exemplified by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s out-of-nowhere success across the Hudson River — is ascendant. Mejia was the only candidate to call Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza a “genocide” and condemned Israel just days after Oct. 7 without making a mention of Hamas’ terror attack against the Jewish state.

As early as Oct. 10, before the Israeli invasion of Gaza began, Mejia said: “Every fiber of my being is horrified beyond words at what is furthering in Gaza.” 

The fact that a candidate as far to the left as Mejia could prevail in one of the most affluent, suburban districts in the country speaks volumes about the state of the party. This is a district, based in Morris County, filled with Wall Street bankers, venture capitalists and other wealthy white-collar workers that was a reliably Republican area not long ago.

Mejia is also beating the party machine-backed candidate, Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, on his home turf — an unprecedented dynamic for an underdog with next-to-no institutional support.

The decision by the AIPAC-aligned United Democracy Project (UDP) to spend over $2.3 million in ads attacking Malinowski is also looking highly questionable. The money, spent on ads attacking Malinowski for funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during his time in Congress, served its role in knocking down the front-runner. 

But the playbook failed to do enough to boost Way, their closest ally, and clearly played an unintended role in Mejia’s strong showing, potentially elevating the fringe candidate into Congress. The lobby group was upset that Malinowski, who was generally a pro-Israel vote in Congress, had called for conditioning aid to Israel during the lengthy war in Gaza — and wanted to demonstrate that his criticism carried a cost. Their all-out push for the best possible result led to the worst possible outcome.

“If I was an AIPAC official, I’d be wondering, ‘How am I going to go to the same donors that I got money from to run this whole campaign against Malinowski and now I’m going to have to do the same thing to take out the person that I accidentally got elected?’” one Jewish leader said, presuming a Mejia win.

That said, there will be two opportunities for pro-Israel groups and moderate forces within the party to mobilize against Mejia, presuming she holds on for the nomination. Given that the New Jersey seat is a fairly competitive district — it backed Kamala Harris by eight points in the 2024 election — Mejia is not a lock to win the general special election (for the remainder of the term) against Republican Joe Hathaway, the mayor of Randolph Township. 

It’s hard to imagine Democrats, running in a very favorable political environment, losing the general election. But you couldn’t find a more-problematic candidate than a socialist running in a capitalist-minded district.

In addition, there will be a separate June Democratic primary for the regular term. There’s a strong chance Mejia would face credible opposition from a more mainstream Democrat, even if elected to Congress, though it’s possible multiple opponents could end up challenging her.

But the fact that Mejia isn’t yet a sitting lawmaker offers little consolation to pro-Israel leaders, who are looking warily at upcoming primary fields — from Illinois to Maine to Minnesota — where Democrats could nominate a slate of far-left, anti-Israel candidates that, if elected, would dramatically change the image and ideological disposition of the party.