Daily Kickoff
Good Wednesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on last night’s Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and look at what comes next for the region. Stateside, we talk to legislators and experts about how the attack might reshape the multifront war that Israel is fighting. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Tevi Troy, Claudia Sheinbaum and Israeli Ambassador to Cyprus Oren Anolik.
Ed. note: In observance of Rosh Hashanah, the next Daily Kickoff will arrive on Monday, Oct. 7. Chag sameach and shana tovah. 🍎🍯
What We’re Watching
- Two of Washington’s Middle East-focused think tanks are hosting events today ahead of the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks.
- This morning, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Dennis Ross, Dana Stroul and David Schenker will discuss U.S. policy in a post-Oct. 7 world.
- This afternoon, Brian Katulis, Mara Rudman, Patricia Karam and Amb. Eric Edelman will join a panel hosted by the Middle East Institute that is focused on the Biden administration’s policies in the Middle East over the course of the last year.
What You Should Know
Israel’s message to Iran was clear on Tuesday night after the Islamic Republic fired about 180 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state: The attack will carry a heavy price tag.
Two Israelis were wounded by shrapnel, and one Palestinian man, originally from Gaza, was reportedly killed by missile shrapnel that fell in the West Bank during the attack, which sent millions of people across the entire country to take cover in bomb shelters as Israel’s aerial defense systems, with the help of allies, intercepted the bulk of the projectiles. Several direct hits were reported, including on a building in Tel Aviv and a Chabad school in the central town of Gedera.
Minutes before the missiles arrived, seven people were killed and 16 wounded in a shooting terrorist attack at a light rail station in Jaffa. The perpetrators of the attack were two Palestinian men from the city of Hebron in the West Bank.
“This evening, Iran made a big mistake – and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of a security cabinet meeting last night. “The regime in Tehran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies.”
“On the eve of Rosh Hashanah, I say to you, citizens of Israel: Israel has the momentum and the axis of evil is in retreat,” the prime minister said. “We will do whatever needs to be done to continue this trend. To achieve all of our war objectives, especially the return of all of our hostages, and ensure our existence and our future.”
Delivering a similar message, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “I spent this evening in the command-and-control center together with senior defense officials, closely watching the IDF’s successful defense against the Iranian missile attack on Israel. Iran has not learned a simple lesson — those who attack the State of Israel, pay a heavy price.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that if Israel strikes back, Tehran’s response will be “more crushing and ruinous.” The attack came after Iran vowed to avenge the deaths of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July, and for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
Iran informed intermediaries that it told the U.S. in advance that it planned to only use ballistic missiles, which take less than 15 minutes to reach Israel, rather than the drones and cruise missiles that it used in April, which took over six hours. Read more here for a dispatch from Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov from Israel last night.
President Joe Biden directed the U.S. military to work with the Israel Defense Forces in shooting down the Iranian missiles, resulting in the onslaught being “defeated and ineffective,” he said. “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel.” When asked what he thinks the consequences for Iran should be, Biden said it “remains to be seen.” Read more below on the mixed messages offered by top Biden administration officials about whether the U.S. would support a counterattack against Iran.
Jordan also took part in deflecting the Iranian attack, with its Public Security Directorate saying that “the Royal Jordanian Air Force and air defense systems responded to a number of missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace.”
And British Defense Secretary John Healey said “British forces have this evening played their part in attempts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East,” thanking “all British personnel involved in the operation.”
In New York, Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz began with the candidates being asked if their respective administrations would support or oppose Israel launching a strike on Iran.
Walz didn’t answer the question directly, instead saying that “Israel’s ability to be able to defend itself is absolutely fundamental, getting its hostages back, fundamental, and ending the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. But the expansion of Israel [sic] and its proxies is an absolute fundamental necessity for the United States.” He later added: “We will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences” for Iran’s malign activity.
Vance, meanwhile, said that it “is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe, and we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys. I think that’s the right approach to take with the Israel question.”
Walz tried to box Vance in with a comment on former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying that “Iran is closer to a nuclear weapon than they were before because of Donald Trump’s fickle leadership.” Vance called the comment “quite extraordinary” before noting that it is Walz’s running mate who was in office as Tehran expanded its nuclear program.
“We talk about the sequence of events that led us to where we are right now, and you can’t ignore October the 7th, which I appreciate Gov. Walz bringing up, but when did Iran and Hamas and their proxies attack Israel? It was during the administration of Kamala Harris, so Gov. Walz can criticize Donald Trump’s tweets, but effective, smart diplomacy and peace through strength is how you bring stability back to a very broken world,” Vance said.
white house reax
Biden WH vows ‘severe consequences’ for Iran while also pushing ‘diplomatic solution’
After Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, top Biden administration officials offered conflicting messages regarding whether the United States would support a counterattack against Iran. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan took a tough stance, praising cooperation between the U.S. and Israel in striking down the attack and vowing that Iran will face “severe consequences” for its ballistic missile attack on Israel the day before the start of Rosh Hashanah, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
Toned down: By the evening, though, a statement posted by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on X offered a more muted take that expressed a desire for diplomacy. His post made no mention of any American or Israeli response to the Iranian attack. “The United States remains committed to pushing for a diplomatic solution, avoiding further expansion of the conflict and to protecting our personnel and facilities in the region,” Austin wrote after a phone call with the French minister of the armed forces. Earlier in the day, before Iran’s attack, Austin had also warned of “severe consequences.”
Ad attack: A graphic advertisement by the Republican Jewish Coalition set to begin running on television and online in swing states on Wednesday accuses Vice President Kamala Harris of helping to enable the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports. The ad opens with footage and images from the Oct. 7 attack — a Hamas fighter firing a weapon into a car, a children’s room covered in smeared blood, a Hamas fighter standing atop an Israeli tank and images of burned out cars.
under pressure
Numerous pro-Israel lawmakers back military response to Iranian strike on Israel
Many pro-Israel lawmakers on both sides of the aisle said, during and in the aftermath of Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Tuesday night, that the U.S. should support or even participate in a significant Israeli retaliatory attack, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod and Emily Jacobs report.
What they’re saying: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged the Biden administration to impose the “severe consequences” it “has repeatedly threatened Iran with” for its “campaign of terror against Israel and the United States.” He continued, “It is time for the world’s leading architects of terror, and their proxies, to face severe consequences.” Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) said, “Iran has made a mistake, it has put its nuclear facilities on the board as fair game.” He added after the attack, “Iran cannot be allowed to fire Ballistic [Missiles] at any American Ally without significant repercussions.”
double down
Critics of Israel aid don’t back down after Iranian ballistic missile attack
Lawmakers opposed to additional offensive aid for Israel are mostly sticking to their previous positions following the large-scale Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
Staying the course: A spokesperson for Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), who is an original sponsor of Senate legislation that would suspend several arms sales to Israel, said he continues to oppose sending additional weapons. “Senator Welch remains focused on a ceasefire, returning the hostages and ending the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. He condemns the attacks on Israel by Iran and believes we must use diplomacy to calm the tensions in the region. More airstrikes and bombs will only bring more war and suffering to this region,” the Welch spokesperson said in a statement to JI.
Read the full story here.
view from the think tanks
What might come next for Israel — and the U.S. — after Iranian attack
After Iran rained ballistic missiles on Israel on Tuesday for the second time in sixth months, the focus now turns to the question of what comes next: how Israel will respond, and what role Washington will play in supporting — or tempering — Israel’s actions. Several Middle East security experts told Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch and Matthew Kassel that Israel has an obligation to respond forcefully, and that the U.S. should support Israel’s actions countering Iran.
U.S. role: “While there will undoubtedly be a desire to prevent an escalatory cycle that leads to a wider regional war, the U.S. should be coordinating with Israel to figure out how Israel can respond in a robust and non-symbolic way that still provides Iran with a plausible ladder it can climb down,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the center-left Israel Policy Forum. Koplow urged the U.S. to stand behind Israel, but argued against American troops or military assets being physically involved in the response. Jason Brodsky, policy director at the more hawkish United Against Nuclear Iran, said the U.S. should team up with Israel in targeting Iran directly. “I believe Israel must retaliate directly against Iran. And strikes on the nuclear program must be on the table,” said Brodsky. “With thousands of Americans living in Israel, the U.S. should join Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites.”
Read the full story here for additional takes from the American Enterprise Institute’s Danielle Pletka; Morgan Ortagus, a former Trump administration State Department spokesperson and the founder of Polaris National Security; Robert Satloff, Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s executive director; and former Department of Defense official Jonathan Lord.
ground game
Israel planning for a limited ground incursion into Lebanon
As Israel prepared its defense after learning that Iran intended to attack Israel on Tuesday, another news item garnered very little notice: The IDF called up four more brigades of reservists to the Lebanon border. The added forces are meant to “enable the continued war effort against Hezbollah and the achievement of the war’s aims, including returning residents of the north home safely,” the IDF said. They were called up less than 24 hours after Israeli soldiers entered Lebanon for what Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the IDF spokesperson, characterized as “limited and targeted raids” in southern Lebanon, in response to Hezbollah shooting over 9,000 missiles into Israel in the past year, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.
Matters of space and time: Yet questions linger about just how limited the incursion can be, given Hezbollah’s remaining capabilities. Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and the Misgav Center for National Security and the former head of research for IDF intelligence, said the war is “limited in at least one respect, which is space … but it’s not clear that we can limit this in time.”
Read the full story here.
campus beat
University of Maryland SJP chapter gets go-ahead for Oct. 7 event, despite initial cancellation
The University of Maryland chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine can proceed with a campus demonstration on the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks in Israel, after a federal judge on Tuesday ruled that the group “has demonstrated a substantial likelihood that it will prevail [in its lawsuit] on the merits of its freedom of speech claim.” The ruling from U.S. District Judge Peter J. Messitte came after the university, which had initially OK’d the rally, reversed course last month and canceled it, prompting the SJP lawsuit stating that its First Amendment rights had been violated, eJewishPhilanthropy’s Haley Cohen and Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs report.
UMD response: In a statement, UMD, which has one of the largest Jewish student populations in the country — nearly 20% of the College Park undergraduate student body of more than 30,000 is Jewish — said that it “recognizes, and will abide by, the court’s decision, and will work with all registered student organizers of events requested for October 7.” The statement continued, “Event organizers, campus officials and UMPD will implement a plan that allows all events to proceed in accordance with the court’s ruling. Notwithstanding today’s court ruling, the safety concerns that were raised remain a source of ongoing attention and focus for us.”
Worthy Reads
The Blinken Doctrine: In Foreign Affairs, Secretary of State Tony Blinken lays out what he calls “America’s Strategy of Renewal” as the U.S. seeks to tilt the balance of power away from China, Russia and Iran. “The Biden administration, for its part, has been working tirelessly with partners in the Middle East and beyond to end the conflict and suffering in Gaza, find a diplomatic solution that enables Israelis and Lebanese to live in safety on both sides of the border, manage the risk of a wider regional war, and work toward greater integration and normalization in the region, including between Israel and Saudi Arabia. These efforts are interdependent. Without an end to the war in Gaza and a time-bound, credible path to statehood that addresses the Palestinians’ legitimate aspirations and Israel’s security needs, normalization cannot move forward. But if these efforts succeed, normalization would join Israel to a regional security architecture, unlock economic opportunities across the region, and isolate Iran and its proxies. Glimmers of such integration were on display in the coalition of countries, including Arab states, that helped Israel defend itself against an unprecedented direct attack from Iran in April. My visits to the region since October 7 have affirmed that there is a path toward greater peace and integration — if leaders there are willing to take hard decisions.” [ForeignAffairs]
U.S. Hugs and Handcuffs: The Free Press’ Eli Lake raises concerns about the Biden administration’s efforts to stave off a broader regional war — even if doing so comes at the expense of Israel. “Since October 7, we’ve seen a consistent story: The Biden administration views its support for Israel in purely defensive terms, and feels a duty to restrain Israel’s offense. The American hug comes with handcuffs. And the handcuffs often come with stern admonitions. So Biden arms the Jewish state and professes his support for Israel’s right to defend itself, but there is always a ‘but.’ Israel has a right to self-defense, but it must do more to protect the Palestinian civilians Hamas uses as human shields. Israel has a right to self-defense, but it should not escalate its war against Hezbollah — even as the terror group fires rockets and missiles over Lebanon’s southern border. Israel has a right to self-defense, but it must participate in ceasefire talks that Hamas has boycotted. Israel has a right to self-defense, but there is no way it can enter its enemy’s last stronghold in Gaza without unacceptable casualties. Put another way, Israel has a right to fight its enemies to a tie.” [FreePress]
Fight to Win: The New York Times’ Bret Stephens explains his support for a scaled-up Israeli effort to address the Iranian threat. “Critics of a hard-line approach will reply that it invites escalation. Yet for nearly four years, the administration’s diplomatic outreach to Tehran, along with its finely calibrated responses to Iranian aggression, has done nothing to deter it from striking us and our allies. Notice that the Iranians began asking for the nuclear negotiations they spurned for the past three years only once they started to fear that Trump might return to office. Bully regimes respond to the stick. As for Israel, it has demonstrated again that its investment in missile-defense technologies that critics said would never work has paid off, chiefly in hundreds or thousands of lives saved. The same type of counterconventional wisdom will serve it well as it completes Hezbollah’s decapitation in Lebanon and Hamas’s evisceration in Gaza. Wars, once entered, need to be fought through to an unequivocal victory.” [NYTimes]
Surge of Self-Confidence: The Washington Post’s David Ignatius considers how the Israeli national psyche has shifted in recent weeks following a series of Israeli military successes. “Looking at the arc of this war, we can see that Israel has taken on Iran’s network of proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen — and so far, it has been able to withstand Tehran’s modest efforts to counterattack. Critics have recoiled from the violence of Israel’s campaign, and international condemnation brings a long-term cost for Israel that will be hard to calculate. But for Israelis themselves, the escalating campaign against Iran’s network seems to have brought a rebirth of the nation’s defiant self-confidence. … An Israeli official described the military situation this way Tuesday night: “If we can’t deter our enemies, we can’t survive in this neighborhood. Oct. 7 shattered this deterrence, and we saw the proxies attack, one by one, because they thought they could get away with it. ‘That view of Israeli vulnerability has now been reversed,’ the official said.” [WashPost]
Word on the Street
Politico reports that the White House privately signaled to Israel that it would back Jerusalem’s escalation against Hezbollah, while publicly calling on Israel to calm tensions and move toward a cease-fire…
U.S. and Israeli officials said that Israel’s recent strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon have destroyed roughly half of the Iran-backed terror group’s weapons stockpile…
The Treasury Department announced sanctions on the Hilltop Youth, an extremist settler group in the West Bank, as well as two individuals tied to violence against Palestinians in the enclave…
The Department of Homeland Security announced that it will open applications in late October for a supplemental round of $210 million in Nonprofit Security Grant Program funding in late October. The funding is left over from the national security supplemental bill passed in April…
A new poll from the Pew Research Center found American attitudes toward the Israel-Hamas war largely unchanged from earlier this year, though more Americans now want the U.S. to play a role to diplomatically resolve the conflict than in February…
Dr. Rich Roberts hosted House Speaker Mike Johnson for a breakfast in his Lakewood, N.J., home yesterday…
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) announced his retirement from Congress at the end of the year; the Arizona Democrat often took a hard-line stance on Israel and called for a cease-fire weeks after the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks…
Controversial Washington Post columnist Taylor Lorenz, who most recently came under fire for a social media post calling President Joe Biden a war criminal, is departing the publication to launch a subscription Substack…
Author and historian Tevi Troy gives his recommendations for books to read during downtime during High Holiday services…
CNN reports on the uptick in security at Jewish institutions ahead of the High Holidays…
eJewishPhilanthropy looks at how Jewish congregations in communities across the Southeast that were hit hard by Hurricane Helene are preparing for the High Holidays…
The Jewish Book Council is launching an initiative to support Jewish-themed books and Jewish authors to fight what JBC CEO Naomi Firestone-Teeter called a “culture of fear” among Jewish writers in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks…
A representative from Yale University’s board of trustees, known as the Yale Corporation, met with student activists pushing for the school to divest from weapons manufacturers…
Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as Mexico’s first Jewish and female president…
Israel’s ambassador to Cyprus, Oren Anolik, responded to unverified reports that he had been kidnapped…
Pic of the Day
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet, including Mossad head David Barnea (right), last night amid Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Birthdays
Portrait photographer whose work has been used on numerous album covers and magazines, Annie Leibovitz turns 75…
Partner in Baltimore’s Workshop Development and leading commercial real estate broker, Richard Manekin… Co-chair of external relations at the Melvin J. Berman Hebrew Academy (Rockville, Md.), Diana Ely Epstein… Professor emeritus of electrical engineering at Stanford, and an inventor of public key cryptography, Martin Edward Hellman turns 79… Bethesda, Md., resident, Samuel G. Kaplan… Fashion designer and the creator of the Donna Karan New York and DKNY clothing labels, Donna Karan turns 76… Grammy Award-winning singer-songwriter and composer, focused on Jewish music, Douglas Norman Cotler turns 75… Former longtime member of the Knesset for the Shas party, Rabbi Yitzhak Cohen turns 73… Israel’s former minister of public security, Omer Bar-Lev turns 71… Former member of the Texas House of Representatives, Scott Hochberg turns 71… Israeli entrepreneur with interests in shipping, drilling, mining and soccer, Idan Ofer turns 69… County executive since 2022 of Nassau County, N.Y., Bruce Blakeman turns 69… Venture capitalist and former chairman of the Associated Jewish Community Federation of Baltimore, Bruce Sholk… National correspondent for CNN, Gary Tuchman turns 64… Former chief program officer of the Union for Reform Judaism, Mark J. Pelavin… Co-founder and CEO of the software firm Palantir Technologies, Alexander Caedmon Karp turns 57… Managing partner of the Fort Lauderdale-based Weinstein Law Firm, he is a major Democratic bundler in Florida, Andrew Weinstein… Former MLB left-handed pitcher with more MLB appearances than any other Jewish pitcher, Scott David Schoeneweis turns 51… Insurance agent at Herman E. Wealcatch Inc., Michael Gottlieb… U.S. government official at the International Trade Administration, Michelle Sara King… Head coach of women’s basketball at USC, she was an assistant coach in the NBA, Lindsay Gottlieb turns 47… Filmmaker and actor, Marek Ariel Schulman turns 43… Award-winning jazz pianist, composer and music producer, Kobi Yakob Arad turns 43… Secretary of state of Colorado, elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, Jena Griswold turns 40… Zionist educator at Hadassah, Diana Diner… Associate attorney at Cooley LLP, Alexander B. Fullman… Rapper and record producer, known by his stage name Quadeca, Benjamin Fernando Barajas Lasky turns 24…
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