Joel Rayburn, a former Trump admin nominee, said the U.S. should carry out a sustained ‘campaign’ of pressure
Matthew Shea
Iran International event, Jan 14th. 2025
Middle East policy experts argued on Wednesday that the United States should actively intervene in Iran’s unrest — including through cyber measures, economic pressure and potentially military strikes — amid the regime’s crackdown on nationwide protests. The comments were made during a program hosted by Iran International, one of the largest independent Persian-language news outlets in the world.
President Donald Trump has for days issued repeated warnings to the regime that the U.S. is “watching closely” and that Iran would “pay hell” for killing protesters. On Wednesday afternoon, however, the president said he had been notified that the “killing in Iran is stopping” and that Iran would not be conducting executions of protesters, as was expected, and downplayed the severity of protester deaths.
“The first thing I would recommend is that we use our very impressive capabilities to shut down the communication system for the government,” said Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, speaking of a potential retaliation for the regime’s decision to cut internet access to the public. “This will be a huge step.”
Satloff said if that did not work, he would then support subsequent U.S. strikes on Iranian military infrastructure.
“If that first act does not bring about a substantial change in Iranian behavior, then I would target very specifically the barracks and the facilities of the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps],” said Satloff.
Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former diplomat in the Middle East, argued that any U.S. intervention in Iran should not be a “one-off military strike,” but rather a sustained “campaign” of economic and political pressure.
Rayburn was tapped by the White House to be assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in February 2025, however, his nomination was ultimately pulled last October.
“We have to use all of the tools at our disposal,” Rayburn said Wednesday. “There’s no reason not to be fully implementing maximum pressure to pressure the Iranian regime in order to change its behavior.”
Responding to questions about whether a weak Iranian regime — in the midst of dire economic and political challenges — can survive the protests, Rayburn suggested it is bound to fall, stating that there will be a “day after this Khamenei regime,” referring to Iran’s supreme leader, and that he believes that day will come “sooner rather than later.”
“The Iranian regime is going to collapse at some point in the not-too-distant future,” said Rayburn. “[It] can no longer function as a state. The last function they can perform is to use violence against their own people. That means they are not a sustainable regime.”
Tehran has threatened to respond to any military action with retaliation against the U.S. and Israel. Satloff said the fall of the regime would be “an enormous strategic gain for Israel,” but noted that Jerusalem is “playing it quiet.”
“The Israelis have made at least the tactical decision, that since Donald Trump has been out front, that Donald Trump has drawn a line in the sand, let Donald Trump be the key actor right now,” said Satloff. “There is no comparative advantage for Israel to be out in front in any military fashion. Let the United States play this role, the president seems to have embraced it.”
He also cast doubt on the likelihood that Tehran would strike Israel in response to U.S. action. Reports have indicated that Iran and Israel have conveyed reassurances through Russian intermediaries that neither side intends to carry out a preemptive strike.
“If the Iranians make the mistake of retaliating against Israel or Israeli assets, or Jewish assets around the world, there will be a very high price to pay,” said Satloff.
Analysts also weighed in on reports that Gulf allies have been lobbying the Trump administration to refrain from striking or intervening in Iran, warning that a U.S. intervention could be ineffective and expose them to retaliation. While the analysts acknowledged those concerns, they argued that regional governments would ultimately like to see the regime fall.
“I don’t think there are any major frontline countries in the Gulf region that believe that the Iranian regime is a regime that they can live with indefinitely,” said Rayburn. “We have not seen real restraint from the Arab capitals to either U.S. or Israeli pressure against the Iranian regime. All of those capitals would be better off without the regime.”
Regardless of whether the U.S. intervenes, Satloff emphasized that any outcome is “ultimately an Iranian process and an Iranian decision.”
“This will be their [the Iranian people’s] revolution, if it happens,” said Satloff. “It will not be something that we trigger or engineer, but to help them to be able to assert their own wishes and desires for the future.”
Experts say what is unfolding now could be more significant than protests of the past, expressing to JI that recent developments could pose an unprecedented challenge to a regime already under strain
Kamran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026.
The United States, Israel and their regional allies are watching closely as sustained unrest in Iran puts renewed pressure on the regime at a moment of economic strain, international isolation and lingering fallout from the 12-day war with Israel last June.
Recent demonstrations have spread across all 31 of Iran’s provinces, fueled by public anger over a collapsing economy, inflation exceeding 40% and aggressive crackdowns by security forces. Economic pressure — intensified by costly proxy wars and United Nations sanctions — have sent Iran’s currency into a sharp decline.
Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said the regime’s “unwillingness to be responsive to its people’s basic demands and rights,” is also a factor. Adding that Tehran has a “clear preference to spend the country’s resources on military projects like its proxies, missiles and nuclear program instead of its citizens’ well-being.”
More than 400 demonstrations took place this week alone, with at least 743 recorded over the past month, according to a tracker from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The death toll has reached at least 38, with more than 2,200 arrests reported. The demonstrations are the largest since April 2025 and among the most sustained since late 2022 as videos continue to circulate online of Iranians flooding the streets, burning regime flags and lighting fire to statues of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Ruhe said that uprisings by the Iranian people against the regime are not uncommon. “In 2009 it was political corruption, when the regime clearly stole the presidential election to get [former President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad reelected,” he said. “In 2017-18 it was economic and foreign policy issues, for instance Iranians being killed in the Syrian civil war and the regime’s lavish spending on its proxies instead of at home. In 2022 it was social and cultural issues, namely hijab enforcement.”
But experts say what is unfolding now could be more significant than protests of the past, expressing to Jewish Insider that recent developments could pose an unprecedented challenge to a regime already under strain.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of FDD’s Iran program, called the protests a “nationwide anti-regime uprising,” telling JI that they are reaching a “crescendo” with a “greater demographic and geographic group of Iranians protesting.”
“Protests have rapidly spread due to the shared consensus that the Islamic Republic of Iran is behind the demise of Iran,” said Taleblu, who called the demonstrators “historic and different” given how the Iranian people have “not given up” in the face of crackdowns. “This matters for a regime that is battered and bruised.”
Ruhe also said the protests are “different from past waves,” explaining that the regime is less capable of solving the issues of the Iranian people in the current moment.
“The economic grievances that triggered the current protests are much more clearly beyond the regime’s ability to fix than they might have been years ago, before the effects of the regime’s corruption and mismanagement had reached the point where the country is running out of electricity and water and its money is absolutely worthless,” said Ruhe.
The ayatollah’s fears are also likely heightened by the recent U.S. operation in Venezuela that ousted President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. pursuing similar actions in Iran is unlikely, however, Iranian officials have expressed concerns that their regime in Tehran could be next. President Donald Trump has warned that the U.S. is watching the protests “very closely.”
In response, the Iranian regime has vowed to crack down against protesters, with Khamenei stating last week that they must be “put in their place.” The regime also appeared to cut off internet access on Thursday. But none of these methods have seemed to quell the unrest, with recent reports suggesting Khamenei could flee Tehran for Moscow if security forces become overwhelmed by protests.
Nadav Eyal wrote that the continued protests could indicate that “fear has shifted sides” from the people of Iran to the regime itself.
“The oppressors are no longer as certain as they once were in using force. They cannot compete with sheer numbers, with masses filling the streets,” Eyal wrote on X. “The Islamic Republic still possesses formidable repressive capacity. Yet the signals — hesitation, mixed messaging, demonstration of fear by cutting internet — suggest a leadership aware that it may no longer be able to rely on obedience.”
Plus, Anna Wintour mingles with Sinwar supporter in Doha
(Photo by GIL COHEN-MAGEN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Jonathan Polin and Rachel Goldberg, parents of killed US-Israeli hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin whose body was recovered with five other hostages in Gaza, and his sisters Orly and Leebie speak during his funeral in Jerusalem on September 2, 2024.
Good Tuesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we look at how X’s new location feature has pulled the curtain back on the numerous foreign accounts attempting to foment unrest, antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment in the West, and report on a new lawsuit filed against Binance by the families of individuals killed in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks and in captivity in Gaza. We cover President Donald Trump’s signing of an executive order targeting the Muslim Brotherhood, and report on Anna Wintour’s mingling with Sheikha Moza bint Nasser, the mother of the Qatari emir, who glorified slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Paul Finebaum, Len Blavatnik and David Amram.
Today’s Daily Kickoff was curated by Jewish Insider Executive Editor Melissa Weiss and Israel Editor Tamara Zieve. Have a tip? Email us here.
What We’re Watching
- We’re keeping an eye on the implementation of President Donald Trump’s executive order issued yesterday targeting chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood. More below.
- Palestinian terror groups said they will turn over the body of a hostage to Israel this afternoon, a day after the Palestinian Islamic Jihad confirmed it was in possession of the body.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Paris for talks with senior French officials, slated to begin tomorrow, on a range of issues, including Tehran’s refusal to grant access to international nuclear weapons inspectors as well as French nationals being detained in the Islamic Republic.
What You Should Know
A QUICK WORD WITH JI’S MATTHEW KASSEL
A new feature from X that allows users to see where accounts are located across the world has exposed a range of extreme political actors as misrepresenting the countries in which they claim to be operating — raising questions over foreign involvement in online discourse.
The discrepancies have been particularly clarifying with regard to anti-Israel commentators as well as far-right MAGA influencers who frequently spread antisemitic rhetoric while espousing “America First” ideology.
Thanks to digital sleuths, it quickly became clear that many widely followed accounts were actually operating in such far-flung locales as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Qatar, among other places — underscoring the degree to which outside agitators are fomenting division on both the left and right.
One illustrative far-right account, “MAGA Nation,” which claims to be “standing strong with President Trump,” for instance, was based in Eastern Europe rather than the United States, the X feature showed. Other similarly named accounts were discovered to be based in Nigeria and Thailand, contradicting the isolationist tenor of their rhetoric.
Several accounts that built large audiences condemning Israel and its war in Gaza were found to be running out of foreign countries. One account called “Gaza Notifications,” for example, is listed as being Turkey-based. Meanwhile, Palestinian journalist Motasem Dalloul denied claims that he was operating from Poland, which X showed to be his location, while purporting to live in Gaza. Dalloul responded to the claims with a video of himself in front of destroyed buildings and tent encampments and told podcast host Daniel Mael that he was using an e-SIM.
Meanwhile, a far-left political activist tied to Track AIPAC — an X account that has faced accusations of antisemitism for demanding the pro-Israel lobbying group register as a foreign agent — was found to be living in Germany, the Washington Free Beacon reported reported.
“Why are people in Pakistan, India, Qatar, Bangladesh and elsewhere trying to sell us division and racism?” Robby Soave, a senior editor for Reason magazine, asked in The Hill on Monday. “The answer is self-apparent,” he said. “Because they want America to fail. They want us to weaken. They want us to descend into infighting. They want us to start pointing fingers and scream in each other’s faces. They want us to fall behind.”
Other accounts disputed the accuracy of the feature, which was introduced over the weekend, or claimed that it did not provide a full picture of the situation.
The political advocacy arm of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, responding to scrutiny over a location in Turkey, said in an X post Monday that its director “first registered the account while he was visiting family in Istanbul,” adding: “Hardly a grand terrorist conspiracy.”
weapons worries
Iranian scientists’ visit to Russia raises concerns about rebuilding nuclear weapons program

A series of recent events and revelations has raised concerns that Iran could be working to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program damaged during the 12-day war with Israel and the U.S., and that Russia could be playing a role in aiding the effort. Iran withdrew last week from an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency to allow the watchdog to inspect its nuclear sites, just after the U.N. agency’s board of governors passed a resolution calling on Iran to provide more complete information about its nuclear sites and remaining stock of enriched uranium. The resolution came as the IAEA’s chief, Rafael Grossi, said that there were indications of activity at some Iranian nuclear sites. Also last week, the Financial Times reported that Iranian scientists and nuclear experts visited Russian military research institutes a second time last year. Those developments come on the heels of a $25 billion deal between Russia, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov and Matthew Shea report.
Unsurprising finding: Jonathan Ruhe, fellow for American strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told JI that the FT’s reporting fits with Western intelligence findings from before the Israeli and American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that the Islamic Republic was trying to reduce the time it would take to turn its enriched uranium into a bomb. “These activities focused on simulating a nuclear explosion, without actually detonating a test device. Israel’s growing urgency about Iran’s progress contributed to its decision to launch the 12-day war when it did,” he said.








































































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