President Donald Trump drew two contradictory timelines for the ongoing war in Iran in remarks on Monday, saying that the conflict was both drawing to a close and in its early stages.

In a call with CBS News, Trump said, “The war is very complete, pretty much. [Iran has] no navy, no communications; they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including the manufacturing of drones. … There’s nothing left in a military sense.”  

The war has progressed faster than initially expected, the president added: “We’re very far ahead of schedule.”

Also Monday, the Department of Defense posted on X that “we have only just begun to fight, with a graphic of a missile interceptor and the text: “No Mercy.” 

At a news conference after his CBS News interview, Trump was asked whether the war is “very complete” or “just beginning.” 

“I think you could say both,” the president responded. “It’s the beginning of building a new country. We could call it a tremendous success right now, or we could go further.” 

“And we’re going to go further,” Trump added.

In his interview with CBS, Trump considered further steps, saying that he is “thinking about taking … over” the Strait of Hormuz.

The president later posted on Truth Social: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”

The Strait of Hormuz is the only passage by sea from the Gulf to the open ocean and a critical chokepoint in the global energy market. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, said during a visit to Israel’s National Health Command Center on Monday that “our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny; ultimately, it is up to them.”

“If we succeed together with the Iranian people, we will bring about a permanent end to the extent that such things exist in the lives of nations,” Netanyahu added. “We will bring about change, and we are already bringing about a massive shift in Israel’s international standing.”

The IDF Home Front Command reported only six missile launches from Iran to Israel in the past 24 hours, a significant slowdown from previous days of the war. 

The IDF continued to strike targets in Iran, including a missile launcher, 10 minutes after it fired at Israel. 

On Monday night, the IAF completed a wave of strikes against six major Iranian military airfields, destroying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aircraft, including combat helicopters.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reached out to the U.S. to start direct talks with Israel on “permanent arrangements for security and stability on [its] borders.” He called for a “complete truce” ending Israeli military activity, and lamented that Hezbollah — which Beirut had agreed to disarm as one of the terms of its 2024 ceasefire with Israel — “wanted to achieve the fall of the State of Lebanon, under aggression and chaos.”

Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon continued, with overnight attacks on command centers and the facilities of the Al-Quard Al-Hassan Association, which funds the Iran-backed terrorist group and works with cash, as well as a cell of Hezbollah terrorists approaching IDF soldiers and a structure in which commanders of the elite Radwan Force were said to be gathering.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar met with U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis in Jerusalem on Monday. In his readout of the meeting, he noted that Hezbollah joined the war on Iran’s side “against the interest of Lebanon.”

“Over the past week there have been more attacks against Israel from Lebanese territory than from Iran,” Sa’ar said. “Weakening Hezbollah is a mutual interest of both Israel and Lebanon. I also said that Hezbollah initiated an attack against us and no member of the international community is acting to stop it besides us.”

Sa’ar and Hennis also discussed Israel’s decision not to evacuate residents from its northern border towns, in contrast with October 2023, and said that “the deployment of IDF troops in the border area is critical for preventing an invasion of Hezbollah’s ground forces and attacks against Israeli citizens and communities.”

The IDF estimated in recent days that over half a million Lebanese residents evacuated southern Lebanon.

Magen David Adom emergency services reported treating 76 people as a result of Monday’s missile attacks, two of whom were killed and 18 injured by missile debris.

Since the start of Operation Lion’s Roar, there have been 14 fatalities. MDA reported treating 667 people for injuries resulting from missile attacks, 511 of whom were injured making their way to shelter or in traffic accidents when stopping for a missile alert.

President Donald Trump, over the last week, has gradually amped up threats of a military strike against Iran, pivoting away from talk of diplomatic negotiations amid continued intransigence from Tehran. 

On Wednesday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “a massive Armada is heading to Iran … ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence if necessary. Hopefully, Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!” 

The president warned that “the next attack will be far worse” than last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer. “Don’t make that happen,” he added.

The regime’s mission to the United Nations responded with Trump-esque capitalization that “Iran stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests—BUT IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!” 

Ali Shamkani, an advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who was severely injured in an Israeli airstrike on Iran last June, threatened — in Arabic, English, Hebrew, Russian and Mandarin — that “any military action by [the] US … will be considered the start of [a] war and its response will be immediate, all out and unprecedented, targeting [the] heart of Tel Aviv and all those supporting the aggressor.” 

Then, amid widespread reports of secret talks between Washington and Tehran through Omani mediators came the news that they made no progress on limiting the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and that Trump was once again weighing military action, according to CNN.

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Jewish Insider that Trump is engaged in “maximum-pressure negotiations,” which are “setting up the regime to say no.” 

Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at Reichman University and Israeli intelligence veteran, told JI that the latest developments were significant in that “Trump laid out terms for a deal and Iran said no, or didn’t say anything. It’s not surprising, because his terms — no nuclear program, no ballistic missiles over a certain range, no support for its proxies — are a surrender without concessions [from the U.S.], something the supreme leader can’t do.”

At the same time, Diker said, “Iran is desperate to cut a deal. … The Iranians are reaching out to cut a deal, like they always do when they feel cornered. Regime survival is the top priority of the regime.”

“I think it’s fair to assess that Trump senses he has a lot of leverage and a lot of power — and he does — and I think he’s applying maximum pressure on the regime. He knows the regime is weak, but it’s like a rabid dog … that can do anything, which can be very dangerous. They still have a lot of missiles,” he said.

Diker argued that 30 years after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first warned about the Iranian threat in a joint session of Congress, “the stars aligned in terms of Trump and Netanyahu, and they could finally get rid of this regime, but it will come at a price. … The Iranian proxies will put us in a terrible position.” 

Israel is not the only country exposed to those dangers, Diker pointed out. “There is pressure on Trump from the Saudis, the Qataris, the Turks and others across the Middle East not to attack because of the distinct fear the regime will start firing rockets, missiles and drones everywhere. … Iranians will just be throwing stuff all over the Middle East, is the fear.” 

In Pollak’s assessment, U.S. military action is likely: “Trump, with all his language and rhetoric, climbed too high not to do anything. He also pushed U.S. assets into the region, similar to what he did in Venezuela. …The scope of a strike is unclear. That’s anyone’s guess right now.”

The shift in Trump’s rhetoric in recent days from focusing on the anti-regime protests to stopping Iran’s nuclear program shows that he is “trying to build legitimacy for a strike,” Pollak said. “The protests against the regime was a trigger for him, but he has other objectives in mind.”

Pollak said that Shamkani’s multilingual social media posts were the first public, direct military threat from Iran towards Israel, something he said Israel’s security establishment surely took note of.

“If it wasn’t certain until yesterday that Israel will get targeted, now it is, even if it’s one barrage,” Pollak said. 

Whether Israel will take part in the strikes on Iran remains an open question, Pollak said, but assessed that it is likely to happen. He pointed out that IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Shlomi Binder was in Washington this week, reportedly to share information about possible targets in Iran.

Pollak pointed out that a month ago, in a press conference with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said he would support Israel striking Iran if it continues to produce ballistic missiles, and if Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear weapons program, he would back Israel striking “fast.”

“I think [Netanyahu] for sure would want to take the opportunity to finish some of what we didn’t finish in June,” he said. “The question is whether Trump will let him or not.” 

Diker said that “Netanyahu has been hyper-focused on ridding Israel and the world of this regime for 30 years … When Netanyahu says Trump is the best friend Israel ever had, he’s not talking about the Abraham Accords. He’s talking right now about ending the Iranian regime. Netanyahu’s eyes are on that ball.” 

Visiting the new U.S.-run Civilian Military Cooperation Center in southern Israel, Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that he is “very optimistic” about the advancement of the peace plan, but warned that Hamas must disarm and cooperate with international interlocutors, or else it would be “obliterated.” 

The vice president’s comments came shortly after President Donald Trump, in a post on his Truth Social site, threatened Hamas with “elimination” should the terror group continue to carry out violence in Gaza and violate the terms of the peace deal. 

“Numerous of our NOW GREAT ALLIES in the Middle East … have explicitly and strongly, with great enthusiasm, informed me that they would welcome the opportunity, at my request, to go into GAZA with a heavy force and ‘straighten out Hamas’ if Hamas continues to act badly, in violation of their agreement with us,” Trump wrote. “There is still hope that Hamas will do what is right. If they do not, an end to Hamas will be FAST, FURIOUS, & BRUTAL!”

The president’s statement, which came hours after Vance touched down in Israel in part to keep the deal on track, underscored his growing impatience and frustration with the terrorist group.

“Hamas has to disarm,” Vance said. “They’re not going to be able to kill their fellow Palestinians. … If Hamas doesn’t cooperate, as the president of the United States said, Hamas will be obliterated.”

“But I’m not going to do what the president of the United States has thus far refused to do, which is put an explicit deadline on it,” the vice president continued, “because a lot of this stuff is difficult … In order for us to give it a chance to succeed, we’ve got to be a little bit flexible.”

Asked about Turkish troops entering Gaza despite the country’s hostility to Israel, Vance said that Israel will have to agree to any foreign troops on the ground. “We’re not going to force anything on our Israeli friends when it comes to foreign troops on their soil, but I think there’s a constructive role for the Turks to play,” he said. “They already played a constructive role.”

As for reconstruction of Gaza, Jared Kushner, who has played a central role in negotiating the end of the war, said that “no reconstruction funds will be going to areas Hamas still controls. … There are considerations in the area the IDF controls to start reconstruction of a new Gaza, in order to give the Palestinians in Gaza a place to go, a place to get jobs, a place to live.” 

Vance said that the eventual governing structure of Gaza is still undetermined, as the plan focuses on getting “to a point where both Gazans and our Israeli friends have some measure of security.” After that, he added, “we’ll worry about long term governance.”

“Let’s worry about security, give people food and medicine,” he said.

Vance said that the CMCC’s focus is on repatriating the bodies of the 15 remaining Israeli hostages, but that “it’s not going to happen overnight.” 

The administration’s push for Hamas’ disarmament is expected to face hurdles. “On the one hand, Hamas wants to avoid losing the sympathy of Turkey and Qatar and wants to avoid wasting Egypt’s desire for a political settlement that creates Palestinian unity with Hamas support,” said Rob Satloff, executive director at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “On the other hand, it is clear that Hamas has no intention of voluntarily giving up the battle against Israel, let alone voluntarily disarming.”

But while Trump threatened that “many countries” will get involved, other nations have been reluctant to send in reinforcements, despite talks of forming an International Stabilization Force, as laid out in the unfinalized second phase of the peace deal. 

At the CMCC facility on Tuesday, the vice president noted that the force is still in the process of being formed, but said no American troops will be on the ground in the enclave. There are about 200 U.S. servicemembers at the CMCC in Kiryat Gat, Israel, tasked with coordinating the effort.

Trump himself emphasized that the U.S. will not send troops into Gaza, telling reporters at the White House on Monday that “Israel would go in in two minutes if I asked them to go in … But right now we haven’t said that.”

“Many countries are hesitant to send troops to serve as peacekeepers,” said David May, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “So, it will be very difficult to find a country able and willing to strike Hamas as punishment.”

Even if Trump is able to get other countries on board to take a more involved role in defanging Hamas in Gaza, May said more firepower does not always mean better results. 

“There’s a certain value in threats and provocative language, especially from an unpredictable president,” said May. “But striking Hamas and not killing civilians requires surgical precision — something the Israelis excel in — not the overwhelming force that the United States alone possesses. [At the same time,] Hamas’ violations are mounting, and the terrorist group cannot be allowed to retake Gaza and execute its potential replacements.”

May said a return to fighting would sink any possibility of the current deal developing into full-fledged peace. The Trump administration has sought to avoid a return to hostilities and build on the momentum from phase one. Experts warned the administration is in a precarious position, balancing between keeping the president’s deal stable and preventing Hamas from reasserting power. 

“The Trump administration is trying to navigate between these poles,” said Satloff. “Taking advantage of political pressure while avoiding a showdown with Hamas without the Arab, Muslim or international troops to back it up, all the while trying to avoid a collapse of relapse into full-scale Hamas-Israel war that would undermine the president’s great diplomatic achievement.”

The vice president also spoke of the significance of Israel to him as a Christian, sharing plans to visit the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. “I pray that the Prince of Peace,” he said, using a name for Jesus,” can continue to work a miracle in this part of the world.”

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads into his meeting with President Donald Trump today, the key question is what kind of Gaza ceasefire plan he will agree to — and how Hamas will respond.

“We have a real chance for GREATNESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday, ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu. “ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!! President DJT.”

Netanyahu was more circumspect. “I hope we can make it a go because we want to free our hostages,” he told Fox News on Sunday.

“He won’t say no to Trump,” a source in the prime minister’s delegation said. But what Netanyahu has been saying is something like, “yes, but.”

While Trump clearly would like to make a big announcement at the end of Netanyahu’s White House meeting, having repeatedly said in public that the war will soon end, he has left out the specifics. 

A version of the plan that Trump shared with Arab leaders has leaked, but the administration has not made it public or talked much about specific goals beyond ending the war and freeing the hostages. Trump’s Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held Witkoff’s role in the first Trump administration, met with Netanyahu twice in New York and again in Washington, quietly working out the details.

Among the elements of the plan Trump shared with a group of Arab countries at the U.N. General Assembly last week, are that the war would end and Hamas would release the 48 remaining hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive, within 48 hours of the ceasefire taking effect. In exchange, Israel would release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including hundreds serving life sentences for serious acts of terror. Israel would not occupy or annex Gaza, and would gradually withdraw from territory.

If Hamas does not agree to the plan, it would still call for Israel to withdraw from parts of Gaza where Hamas is out of power and for an international stabilization force to take over.

Gaza would be deradicalized and demilitarized, and redeveloped, with a surge of aid entering the area. At first, Gaza would be administered by Palestinian technocrats supervised by a U.S.-backed international body with Arab and European countries taking part. This administration is meant to continue until reforms are completed in the Palestinian Authority.

Ultimately, the plan states, it may create the conditions for a pathway to Palestinian statehood, and the U.S. would facilitate a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians.

The plan also marks a major shift in Trump administration policy. While the president said in February that all residents should leave Gaza, which would then be turned into a “Riviera,” it now says that Gazans would be encouraged to stay and build their future. 

The plan contradicts Israel’s conditions to end the war in a number of ways, including that Israel retain a military presence along Gaza’s periphery, security control of Gaza and be allowed to strike anytime it sees terror rearing its head again. 

Netanyahu also made clear in his speech to the UNGA on Friday that a Palestinian state is not acceptable to Israel, saying that “giving the Palestinians a state one mile from Jerusalem after Oct. 7 is like giving Al-Qaida a state one mile from New York City after Sept. 11. This is sheer madness. It’s insane, and we won’t do it.” He said in the interview on Fox News on Sunday that he was skeptical the PA could undergo such a “tremendous transformation.”

At home, Netanyahu faces pressure in both directions. Coalition partners like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who said Netanyahu has “no mandate to end the war without defeating Hamas,” and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich who publicly stated his red lines on Monday, including full Israeli security control of Gaza, a permanent IDF presence along Gaza’s perimeter and no Qatari or PA involvement. Others on the right say that the plan gives too much to the Palestinians without demanding enough in return. A delegation of West Bank mayors flew to the U.S. over the weekend to try to talk Netanyahu into insisting on annexation.

Yet, at the same time, some in Likud have been quietly urging Netanyahu to accept the broader strokes of the plan — the return of the hostages and demilitarization of Gaza – to bring about the end of the war. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said he trusts Netanyahu “to represent Israel’s interests as needed in talks with President Trump.”

While Netanyahu may be facing pressure from Trump to return to Israel with a ceasefire plan to enact, the quiet diplomacy — at least by Trump administration standards — indicates that they may give him some time and space to decide. 

Yet there is another deadline ahead. Between all of the sports, culture, arms and other boycotts, there is a far more consequential threat emerging: the potential suspension of free trade between Israel and the EU, its largest trading partner, until at least 2027, which could send Israel’s economy into a tailspin. 

The European Commission is set to vote on the matter on Oct. 20, and it requires a qualified majority to pass. Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hungary are on Israel’s side, but whether that will be enough remains to be seen. A ceasefire agreement could put a stop to Brussels’ initiative. 

And lest we forget, there’s the likelihood that Hamas will reject the plan. While there are elements of it that could go forward without Hamas’ acquiescence, for Israel freeing the hostages is a necessary condition for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Despite President Donald Trump posting on Truth Social on Sunday suggesting that he sought regime change in Iran, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt downplayed his remarks when speaking to reporters on Monday morning.

“The president was just raising a question that I think many around the world are asking,” Leavitt said. “If the Iranian regime refuses to give up their nuclear program or engage in talks, we just took out their nuclear program on Saturday night, as you all know. But if they refuse to engage in diplomacy moving forward, why shouldn’t the Iranian people rise up against this brutal terrorist regime? That’s the question the President raised last night.”

Trump posted earlier, “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change?”

His comments were at odds with other senior administration officials who have insisted that the U.S. strikes were solely intended to disable the Iranian nuclear program and that Trump still remained focused on securing a diplomatic solution. 

“We do not want regime change,” Vice President JD Vance said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “We do not want to protract this or build this out anymore than it’s already been built out. We want to end their nuclear program and then we want to talk to the Iranians about a long-term settlement here.”

Leavitt insisted to reporters that the U.S. was successful in completely destroying the Iranian nuclear program, despite signs that the fortified nuclear site of Fordow was severely damaged, but not completely destroyed. In the days prior to the strike, satellite imagery also showed trucks stationed at Fordow, leading some analysts to speculate that Iran evacuated some of its uranium stockpile.

President Donald Trump dismissed Tucker Carlson at several points on Monday over Carlson’s comments opposing Trump’s support for Israeli strikes on Iran.

Trump, in recent days, has distanced himself from isolationist figures in the party who have condemned the strikes on Iran. Asked Monday at the G7 Summit in Canada about Carlson’s comments accusing Trump of being “complicit” in the war, Trump quipped, “I don’t know what Tucker Carlson is saying. Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen.”

Trump later posted on his Truth Social platform, “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that, ‘Iran CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!’”

Over the weekend, Trump had also criticized isolationists in his party,, declaring in an interview, “I think I’m the one that decides” what constitutes America First, adding, “For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon.”

Carlson, who recently called for the U.S. to abandon Israel and to not provide any further funding or weapons, again criticized U.S. support for Israel in an appearance on former Trump advisor Steve Bannon’s show on Monday, and claimed that the administration was following direction from “foreign governments” aiming to enact “regime change” in Iran and who were dictating to the U.S. who its enemies should be.

While arguing that involvement in the conflict was not in the U.S.’ interests, neither Carlson nor Bannon mentioned or acknowledged Iran and its proxy forces’ role in the deaths of Americans across the Middle East in recent decades.