Moderate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) remains favored to win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary, but the race is shaping up to be more competitive than expected, both in the Democratic primary and in the general election.

In the primary, Pappas’ progressive challenger, Karishma Manzur, has been gaining ground against him, and leveling attacks related to Pappas’ past support from AIPAC and backing of  the U.S.-Israel relationship. Pappas has subtly recalibrated his foreign policy views during the primary.

An Aug. 20-24 poll by the University of New Hampshire showed Pappas’ lead had shrunk to 13 percentage points — though other surveys have shown Pappas with a more significant lead, including a mid-August St. Anselm poll that put him up 31 points and an internal campaign poll that showed him with a 56-point lead.

Pappas has been a pro-Israel moderate in the House, though he voted “present” on the recent amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) to cut off U.S. aid to Israel and, with most Democrats, against a college campus anti-Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions bill. He was endorsed by AIPAC in his House races, but the group has not yet made any endorsements in the Senate race.

Manzur, who accuses Israel of genocide, has made attacks on Pappas for past support from AIPAC a central element of her campaign, going after him for “tak[ing] money from corporate PACs, super PACs, AIPAC, foreign lobbyists” (foreign political donations are illegal) while stating she only takes donations from “regular American folks,” a comment that the New Hampshire Jewish Federation has described as offensive.

She has also accused Pappas of taking a “payoff” from AIPAC in exchange for voting “against humanitarian aid to starving children.”

Her campaign has rented a billboard in Pappas’ home city attacking him over his ties to AIPAC.

Manzur, in a statement to Jewish Insider on Friday, said that Pappas was “unwilling to answer a simple question about AIPAC’s endorsement” and accused him of “hypocrisy.”

“Pappas is a shill for AIPAC and corporations supporting the war machine, so it’s no surprise that special interests are pouring in millions to buy this seat,” she said. That’s exactly why I’m surging in the polls: people are sick and tired of business-as-usual politicians like Pappas who serve their wealthy donors instead of the people they represent. Granite Staters deserve leaders with honesty, integrity, and accountability. I am honest, un-bought, and the people’s candidate, fighting every day to improve people’s lives. That’s why I will win this primary.”

Pappas, for his part, has toned down his past support for the Jewish state, saying after the vote on the Massie amendment, “I cannot support this amendment as written, but also cannot support the disproportionate, extreme policies of the Netanyahu government” and calling for a “reset” of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Despite appearing at an AIPAC summit earlier this year, and recording a video in front of an AIPAC backdrop expressing support for the U.S.-Israel relationship, he has more recently downplayed that appearance as a meeting with local constituents, rather than with AIPAC as an organization.

Asked recently on CNN about his past support from AIPAC, he downplayed his relationship with the group, saying, “I appreciate the support I have from individuals out there” and said he’s working to change campaign finance laws, as well as emphasized his criticisms of the Israeli government and efforts to push for a two-state solution.

Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, attributed Manzur’s growing share of the vote to left-wing energy in the party. New Hampshire Democrats, he explained, have traditionally put forward “people who are kind of middle of the road, not flashy, somewhat boring as candidates … who [aren’t] going to be the most dynamic campaigners,” including Pappas.

“That I think is the biggest problem that Pappas has right now. He’s seen as part of that old guard of the Democratic Party here, even though he’s pretty young,” he continued. “He’s not really, I think, reflecting the energy and anger that you’re seeing from the progressive left of the party.”

That said, he predicted that Pappas is still favored to be the nominee, given the strong support he receives from older voters. Younger voters, who are Manzur’s base, are less likely to turn out on Election Day. 

General election polling is also pointing to a competitive race for Pappas in November. A UNH poll in late August showed former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH), the likely GOP nominee, with a narrow lead over Pappas, a result matched by a GOP-sponsored Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll last week. The nonpartisan elections handicapper Inside Elections shifted the race to a toss-up on Thursday.

A St. Anselm College poll in mid-August had shown Pappas with a seven-point lead over Sununu.

Smith said that Pappas, assuming he’s the nominee, would face a competitive race in the general election, despite the environment otherwise favoring Democrats. Sununu’s family name is well-known throughout the state, he was popular during his time in office and his brother Chris Sununu was a popular recent governor, Smith explained.

“He’s getting more support from more moderate voters and more independent voters who either don’t know Pappas or maybe they are just looking for somebody different,” Smith said. “Sununu is maybe the underdog, but … he knows how to run,” is very sharp and is a strong debater.

Sununu’s biggest challenge will be to distance himself enough from President Donald Trump to win over moderate voters without angering Trump voters in the GOP base.