Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has emerged as the front-runner in the contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), with national Republicans swiftly coalescing around her bid for the GOP nomination as they look to avoid a messy primary battle.

Hinson, a politically tested lawmaker who has long been viewed as a potential successor to Ernst, launched her Senate campaign within hours of Ernst’s announcement last Tuesday that she would not seek a third term. 

Hinson, in her candidate announcement, said that she would be President Donald Trump’s “strongest ally” in the Senate and would work to “deliver the America First agenda.” She also praised Ernst for her military service and time in public office, saying that, “Our country and state are better off because of Joni’s selfless service.”

Hinson, a prolific fundraiser who entered the race with a $2.8 million war chest, began racking up endorsements shortly after her campaign launch. Trump endorsed Hinson on Friday, as did Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

Trump described Hinson as “a wonderful person” whom he knows “well,” and praised her devotion to her family before touting her commitment to “our incredible Iowa workers.”

“She is working hard to Create Jobs, Cut Taxes, Promote Products and Services MADE IN AMERICA by our incredible Iowa Workers, Support our Great Farmers and American Agriculture, Champion Innovation, Continue to Help Secure our now very Secure Southern Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote of Hinson on his Truth Social platform.

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told JI. 

Ernst and Hinson are close professionally and personally; in addition to being friends, the two have long been aligned on foreign and domestic policy and worked together on scores of bicameral legislative efforts. 

Both lawmakers have been repeatedly endorsed by AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition, though neither organizations have officially gotten behind Hinson’s Senate bid yet. While Ernst hasn’t endorsed in the race either, Hinson is the candidate she is most aligned with ideologically. 

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told Jewish Insider. 

“On issues of concern to Jewish Americans, Ashley Hinson has been an absolute stalwart,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI.

Markstein described Hinson as “an incredibly strong voice in Israel’s defense,” citing her “calling Hamas’ terror attack ‘evil,’ and affirming Israel’s right to defend itself immediately” after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel as examples. He also noted that she has “consistently voted for vital military aid to Israel and Iron Dome defense systems,” and pointed to her cosponsoring legislation “to pressure the Biden administration to deliver critical aid that they were holding up as the Jewish state was fighting a seven-front war.” 

“She has stood strongly against the Iranian regime by supporting measures to reinstitute maximum pressure and reimpose crippling sanctions. Ashley Hinson also has a very strong record on combating antisemitism. Notably, unlike some on the neo-isolationist far right, when Ashley Hinson says, ‘America First,’ for her, and for the RJC, that means standing strongly with our allies, like Israel, peace through strength, using decisive military action when necessary and rejecting forever wars,” Markstein said.

The swift action on Hinson’s part in launching her campaign and locking down major endorsements has propelled her campaign to front-runner status in the race, and a smooth primary contest could benefit what are already strong general election chances for Republicans in the Hawkeye State. 

“Ashley’s been pretty good on the Trump record,” Kochel said. “I think things are going to consolidate pretty quickly around her.”

“She is definitely going to be the leading candidate in the Republican primary, and she’s going to be a very tough candidate in the general election as well,” he told JI. 

Thus far in the primary, Hinson is facing Jim Carlin, a Republican former state senator who initially entered the contest to challenge Ernst from the right after winning 27% of the vote against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in a 2022 primary, and Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host who is a sharp critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Smith has espoused virulently anti-Israel beliefs on social media, posting in March of this year on X that Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and claiming in a post last May that Jewish people suffer from a “Jewish victim complex.”

Hinson began her career in local television as a broadcast journalist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and went on to win two Midwest regional Emmy Awards and become a health reporting fellow for the Radio Television Digital News Association. She entered politics in 2016, when she won a competitive seat in the Iowa state House of Representatives representing the purple Cedar Rapids area by a two-to-one margin. 

Hinson was elected to the House in 2020 after defeating former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, a Democrat who flipped Iowa’s 1st Congressional District blue in 2018, by more than two points. 

The other rumored candidate looking at the race is U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, Trump’s former acting attorney general during his first term who lost to Ernst in the GOP primary for her Senate seat in 2014. But with Trump and leading Republicans rallying behind Hinson, the prospects of Whitaker running has dimmed. 

The Democratic side of the aisle has a crowded field of candidates competing for the party’s nomination, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Jackie Norris, chairwoman of the Des Moines Public Schools board. 

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI. “Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership.”

Democrats have expressed an interest in contesting the open Senate seat in Iowa, a now reliably Republican state that was a battleground before Trump’s political ascendance. 

The party has some renewed confidence in their political standing in the state, after Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a special election last month. The state currently has one state elected official that’s a Democrat: State Auditor Rob Sand. 

Whether national Democrats will allocate resources to the Hawkeye State remains to be determined, but winning statewide as a Democrat in deep red Iowa will be a difficult challenge. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, when former Sen. Tom Harkin handily won a fifth term, prompting Republicans to dismiss the notion that this race will be competitive.

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Markstein told JI. 

“Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership. This, and more, illustrates that she’s focused, organized, and has an excellent team around her, all of which is needed to win,” he continued.

The NRSC sent a memo to donors last week expressing confidence that Democrats would face an uphill slog in Iowa, and touted Hinson as a “formidable contender” who “would be  exceedingly difficult for any Democrat to challenge.”

A source familiar with how the NRSC is viewing the contest told JI that, “Democrats are trying really hard to say that Iowa is in play and that it is a competitive race. That’s just not electorally where we view it.” 

“It’s also just not ultimately what the field on their side signals. They have a very messy, competitive primary right now. It does not appear that [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer is going to be able to clear the field. That is obviously a direct contrast to what we’re seeing so far on our side,” the source said, noting the growing support for Hinson on the GOP side of the aisle. 

Kochel noted that, “Iowa historically was a swing state. [Former President Barack] Obama won it twice and Trump’s won it three times, but certainly the registration advantage that Republicans have has been growing. As the electorate has changed in the last 10 years, more non-college [educated], white, working-class voters are becoming more and more Republican. We’ve got a lot of those in Iowa.”

“Demographically, Iowa is kind of getting away from the Democrats a little bit,” he continued, predicting, “We’ll see this race settle into a pretty familiar framework.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, endorsed Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) on Friday in her bid to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) next year.

The endorsement announcement comes days after Ernst confirmed that she won’t seek a third term in the Senate, which was followed by Hinson’s entry into the campaign hours later. 

“We need conservative fighters in the Senate — and that’s exactly what we’ll get with Ashley Hinson,” Thune said in a statement. “Ashley has been a fierce advocate of President Trump’s America First agenda and has been instrumental in delivering big wins in the House for Iowans and the American people. I know that she’ll bring with her to the Senate that same unrelenting energy. Ashley has my full support and endorsement.”

Scott’s statement noted his time traveling across the Hawkeye State with Hinson in 2022, as the South Carolina senator was mounting his 2024 presidential bid, and expressed confidence Iowa voters would rally around her candidacy. 

“Having traveled Iowa with Ashley, I know she is the fighter the Hawkeye State needs to deliver President Trump’s agenda in 2026 and beyond,” Scott said. “Iowans are all-in for Ashley Hinson, and that’s why the NRSC and I are proud to stand with my friend, a proven conservative and staunch Trump ally.”

Hinson, a former local news anchor and state representative elected to Congress in 2020, has been working to consolidate support among the GOP primary electorate to fend off competitive challengers. She was also endorsed this week by Sens. Jim Banks (R-IN), Katie Britt (R-AL) and Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), as well as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and Reps. Zach Nunn (R-IA) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Nunn was considered a possible candidate to replace Ernst prior to endorsing Hinson.

Neither Ernst nor President Donald Trump have endorsed a candidate in the contest. 

Thus far in the race, Hinson is facing Jim Carlin, a Republican former state senator who initially entered the contest to challenge Ernst from the right after delivering a 27% showing in his primary against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in 2022, and Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host with a record as a critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship and Zionism. 

Smith has also espoused virulently anti-Israel beliefs on his X account, posting in March of this year that Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and claiming in a post last May that Jewish people suffer from a “Jewish victim complex.”

The newly open Senate race in Iowa could pit a House Republican seen as a conventional conservative against challengers likely to attack her from the right. The race could also be an early bellwether of the GOP’s direction as it moves toward the post-Trump era.

Multiple outlets reported on Friday that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will drop her bid for reelection in 2026 and retire from the Senate at the end of her current term. A member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Ernst has been a staunch ally of Israel and an Iran hawk in the upper chamber, traveling to the region repeatedly since Oct. 7, 2023, and serving as a co-chair of the Abraham Accords Caucus.

Ernst has been vocal in calling for ramping up U.S. pressure on Qatar to squeeze Hamas to release the hostages being held in Gaza, and has been a champion of efforts to integrate American, Israeli and Arab defensive systems in the region, including air and missile defense.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), a former local news anchor and state representative elected to Congress in 2020, is widely seen as likely to make a run for Ernst’s seat. She’s been an ally of Ernst as the senator has faced right-wing attacks..

In the House, Hinson has a consistent record of support for the U.S.-Israel relationship and legislation to combat antisemitism, and has signed onto congressional letters criticizing international legal cases against Israel and supporting the Abraham Accords. She supported the U.S. strikes on Iran earlier this summer.

Hinson called the U.S.-Israel relationship “absolutely imperative … for both of our countries,” in 2020. “We look at not only the partnerships for security, but also for economic development, research, medicine. There are so many ways our countries are helping each other, and I think that relationship is invaluable both from the past and going forward.”

Hinson has been endorsed in previous races by AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Her House campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Should she enter the race, she’ll face the prospect of running against lesser-known, right-wing Republicans like Jim Carlin, a former state senator who entered the race to challenge Ernst from the right.

Carlin has framed himself as a “reliable ally to President [Donald] Trump, not an adversary.” He has attacked Ernst for decisions including her vote in support of additional U.S. support for Ukraine.

“America First isn’t a slogan — it’s a governing philosophy. It means protecting American borders before foreign ones. It means putting our economy, our people, and our future ahead of global interests,” Carlin’s campaign site reads. “We need our allies to step up and pay their fair share.”

He added that European allies should “[pay] their fair share and [handle] their own issues. We’ve given them enough,” opposed additional aid to Ukraine and said that the “war must stop now!”

Carlin put up a meager showing in a primary challenge against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in 2022, picking up just 27% of the primary vote.

NBC News reported that Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO and former acting attorney general, may also be interested in the seat. He ran against Ernst in the 2014 GOP primary, only winning 8% of the vote. But as a Trump loyalist, he could have a shot at landing Trump’s endorsement, which could prove a problem for other potential candidates.

Whitaker, prior to his service in Brussels, had little foreign policy experience or record, but during his confirmation hearing said the Trump administration’s commitment to the mutual defense agreements enshrined in Article V of the NATO treaty were “ironclad.” He has also called on European allies to spend more on their own defense and provide additional support to Ukraine.

Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host, also declared his candidacy against Ernst. On his X account, Smith has been a critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship, saying “Joni definitely stands with Israel (money),” Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and “Iran is not a threat to America. Palestine is not a threat to America.”

Smith has opposed U.S. aid for Israel, suggested Israel is attempting a genocide, said that “you can’t be antiwar and support the continued support of the US for Israel,” claimed that Jews suffer from a “Jewish victim complex” and alleged that the U.S. attempted to “make Christianity antisemitic and outlaw criticism of Israel.”

Democrats are expected to make an aggressive bid for the seat in the general election, and several have already entered the primary race, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris.

David Yepsen, a longtime former political writer, editor and columnist at the Des Moines Register, told Jewish Insider that Hinson is the likely favorite if she gets in the race, but that she could face a real challenge from her right. 

Yepsen said that Hinson had previously been seen as more of a moderate, though she has recently made efforts to align herself more closely with Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP.

Yepsen predicted a “really good race” in the general election, given that Democrats have already fielded several contenders, have put up strong showings in recent state special elections, have been energized by opposition to the Trump administration and have an advantage in the midterms. 

Yepsen added that, given the open Senate seat, an open gubernatorial race, multiple competitive House races and the developing presidential primary race, the coming cycle is likely to be an “unprecedented race in modern Iowa politics.” 

“There are plenty of Iowa Republicans who are not MAGAs, who are not Trump people, who just wanted somebody else,” he said. “It’s going to be played out on the ground, these early things about what the Republican Party is, what it stands for, what it’s going to be going forward. There are national implications to what goes on here in Iowa.”

Yepsen said that Ernst’s retirement is not likely to be a surprise to many in the state, given her clashes with Trump-aligned conservatives in the state and other recent scandals and public missteps. Democrats, he added, have seen her as vulnerable.

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers including Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) criticized the Israeli government on Thursday for carrying out a new round of strikes in Syria, which reportedly killed eight Syrian soldiers.

The statement is one of the most public signs yet of friction between U.S. lawmakers, including some staunch supporters of Israel, and the Israeli government over Israel’s approach to the new Syrian government, which has included repeated rounds of strikes on Syrian targets even amid diplomatic engagements. Many U.S. lawmakers, meanwhile, are urging a more optimistic approach.

“We just returned from Syria, where we heard directly from interim President [Ahmad] Al Sharaa, cabinet ministers and Syrians from across ethnic and religious communities,” the lawmakers said in a joint statement on Wednesday. “The message was clear: Syria needs a chance to succeed and move past the violence and strife that consumed the country for over 14 years. Last night’s destabilizing strikes on Syria by Israel make that goal more difficult to achieve.”

The lawmakers praised the Trump administration for lifting sanctions on Syria and U.S. envoy Tom Barrack for brokering a meeting between the Syrian and Israeli governments. They argued that there is a real but shrinking window for true Syrian-Israeli peace, and said Israel must step up.

“The Syrians are prepared to move forward with Israel to advance peace. It is unclear how long the door to this opportunity will remain open. We call on Israel to seize the moment and immediately cease hostilities so the progress made by Syrians and Special Envoy Barrack can continue,” the lawmakers continued. “A stable and secure Syria is the only path toward freedom from Iran’s reach and containment of the ISIS threat.”

The criticisms are similar to frustrations expressed privately by some Republican senators to Jewish Insider earlier this summer following Israeli strikes targeting the Syrian defense ministry and presidential palace in response to atrocities against Syrian Druze in Sweida.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told JI in July that Israel’s “security concerns in Syria are legitimate. They’re very important to me, but I also want to help the president with his efforts to integrate the country. So there’s some tension, and I hope we can clear it up.”

He said it would be critical to determine the extent to which the Syrian army has been involved in the atrocities against the Druze and how much control the Syrian government exerts over its coalition and allies. He said that if the Syrian military or government were involved, sanctions should be reinstated.