The new report from the hawkish think tank calls for the countries to sign one final 10-year MOU while focusing more on military cooperation and engagement
WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES - JULY 18 : U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (R) welcomes Defense Minister Israel Katz (L) during an official ceremony at the Pentagon in Washington, United States on July 18, 2025. (Photo by Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu via Getty Images)
As Israel and the Trump administration negotiate the next U.S.-Israel memorandum of understanding, a new report from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America demonstrates how even among hawkish experts in Washington, the question is increasingly not how to preserve the traditional military aid model, but what should replace it.
The report, titled “Shifting the Center of Gravity: Transforming the U.S.-Israel Security Partnership,” recommends that the two countries sign one final 10-year MOU — a sea change for Israel supporters who previously wouldn’t have dreamt to advocate for the end of these kinds of agreements between Jerusalem and Washington, though they largely hope for it to be replaced with cooperative and enduring programs.
The report comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has himself championed the eventual end of direct U.S. aid to Israel and as elements of both parties become resistant to defense spending overseas, a new reality that is forcing a reassessment of how Washington can sustain its commitment to Israel without relying on the traditional aid model.
Blaise Misztal, JINSA’s vice president for policy, told Jewish Insider that the strategy is catered to “America’s benefit” and seeks to make the U.S.-Israel partnership “more effective for both countries.”
“Closer alignment and cooperation with Israel across military, technological and economic lines of effort will help make America safer abroad, more prosperous at home and one step ahead of its adversaries,” Misztal said. “One specific area where we believe this should happen immediately is with shifting the center of gravity of U.S. force posture in the Middle East to Israel.”
JINSA’s report calls for maintaining $3.8 billion in annual U.S. assistance through fiscal year 2038, while pairing that funding with a series of initiatives designed to deepen operational and strategic integration between the two militaries, including a larger U.S. military footprint in Israel, a permanent U.S. military presence at Israel’s Ovda Airbase, a deeper U.S.-Israeli defense industrial partnership and a limited U.S.-Israel mutual defense treaty (with a deliberately narrow threshold for activation).
At the center of JINSA’s proposal is an expanded U.S. military presence in Israel. Beyond Ovda Airbase, the report calls for expanding U.S. access to other Israeli air and naval bases and creating a forward CENTCOM headquarters in Israel for regional planning, mission command and oversight of U.S. forces, as well as establishing a U.S. prepositioned arsenal hub and expanding and modernizing the existing war reserve stockpile.
The strategy also envisions joint development and production of advanced weapons and critical munitions. It recommends formally incorporating Israel into the Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile-defense initiative and expanding U.S. procurement and coproduction of Israeli air- and missile-defense systems.
JINSA further recommends expanding intelligence sharing on Iran, its proxies and other shared adversaries, including China and Russia, while establishing a “Model Ally” status for Israel that would provide a framework for deeper joint research and development, co-production, reciprocal offsets and an updated assessment of Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge. The report argues that greater integration of the two countries’ defense industries would strengthen their respective industrial bases and supply chains.
The proposal would also elevate the political and military commitments underpinning the relationship. JINSA recommends deepening CENTCOM-led defense cooperation between Israel and key Arab states with the eventual goal of a limited, U.S.-led regional mutual defense arrangement conditioned on normalization with Israel.
“The question for policymakers is not what America owes Israel. It is what America gains from having Israel as an ally — and how much more both countries can gain by making that alliance stronger,” JINSA said in a statement accompanying the report.
The report argues that Israel’s recent cooperation with the United States in the war in Iran demonstrates the value of a more integrated partnership.
“Israel fought shoulder-to-shoulder with America, carrying an equal share of the combat burden and risk, with historic levels of joint planning, intelligence integration, and operational coordination, while hosting and protecting more than 100 U.S. military aircraft and thousands of American servicemembers,” the statement said. “It also deployed advanced air defenses and troops to help defend a U.S. partner, the United Arab Emirates.”
JINSA also points to Israel’s defense spending as evidence of its willingness to share the burden of regional security, arguing that the country’s defense spending of nearly 8% of GDP exceeds NATO’s new 5% benchmark and is roughly three times the share spent by many European countries.
The analysis by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America found that Tehran made 47% more in the three weeks following the MOU than it normally did in a month before the war
Photo by AFP via Getty Images
A cargo ship is pictured off coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region, along the Gulf of Oman on June 28, 2026.
Iran netted nearly $5 billion in the 22 days after Washington and Tehran signed their memorandum of understanding on June 17, according to a new report from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
The findings come as President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the U.S. would reimpose its naval blockade on Iranian ports effective July 14 at 4 p.m. ET, with an added 20% U.S. toll on all shipping through the strait.
The U.S. had lifted the blockade last month upon the signing of the MOU with Iran, at which time the Trump administration also issued a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. That waiver was revoked last week in response to Iranian attacks on shipping vessels in the strait, but the damage, JINSA says, was already done.
The JINSA report, published on July 8, found that once the initial maritime blockade was lifted mid-June, the Iranian regime “rushed to export its oil at the first opportunity.” Shipping data analyzed in the report indicates that Iran exported 50 million barrels of crude within the first two weeks after the blockade was lifted. By early July, total exports under the temporary truce topped 55 million barrels, netting the regime more than $4.5 billion.
Before the conflict, Iran typically exported between 47 million and 50 million barrels in a single month, averaging roughly $3.05 billion in revenue, according to the report. Because the U.S. waiver allowed Iran to sell its crude at standard market prices rather than the heavily discounted rates it usually relied on to bypass international sanctions, the regime pulled in 47% more cash in the 22 days following the MOU than it normally did in an entire month before the war.
Tehran has simultaneously maintained a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz that has severely constrained broader global shipping, in what the report describes as a “bad omen for the future of maritime security in the Middle East — and U.S. deterrence of Iran.”
Daily global transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell from 15 million barrels of crude oil per day before the war to 4.8 million barrels per day during the first week after the MOU was reached — less than a third of normal volumes. By contrast, Iran managed to export 5 million barrels of its own crude oil per day during that same week.
Beyond standard oil sales, the report notes that Iran maintained an aggressive financial squeeze on foreign vessels transiting the region. Citing Israeli media reports, the report said Iranian authorities blocked commercial oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz unless they paid a transit fee of up to $2 million per vessel.
Tracking data from the shipping analytics firm Kpler suggests that these unauthorized checkpoints generated roughly $300 million in extra revenue for Tehran, directly violating the agreement’s terms guaranteeing free passage for international trade.
Makovsky said Trump’s reported deal with Tehran ‘wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on’
Aaron Schwartz/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images
President Donald Trump speaks during a maternal healthcare event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, May 11, 2026.
Michael Makovsky, the president and CEO of the hawkish Jewish Institute for National Security of America, criticized the Trump administration’s recent handling of the U.S. war in Iran, expressing concern about the possibility of a broader peace deal that does not address key issues.
“The U.S. has lost the plot on Iran,” Makovsky told Jewish Insider on Friday. “After significant military achievements, declaring the ceasefire was a huge mistake, and there was too much hype about what pressure a blockade alone would achieve. The net result has reduced U.S. leverage, and the perception that America is vulnerable if gasoline nears $5 per gallon.”
Makovsky said that the U.S. “should not pursue a deal” with Iran, arguing that such an agreement “wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on.” He said that a deal “will only enrich and strengthen the regime and demoralize the Iranian people.”
“Instead, the U.S. should resume military operations for a couple weeks, weaken the regime and its nuclear and conventional capabilities further, cease the military campaign while maintaining the blockade and support the Iranian people in every way possible,” he said.
Makovsky spoke to JI in response after President Donald Trump’s announcement on Friday that he was nearing a decision on the agreement reportedly reached by U.S. and Iranian negotiators to extend the ongoing ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continue nuclear talks. Makovsky made the comments prior to this weekend’s fighting between the two countries, with the U.S. striking Iranian air defenses and drone sites after Iran downed an American MQ-1 drone and shot missiles at U.S. forces based in Kuwait.
“Based on what appears to being negotiated, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in return for certain Iranian pledges about what will be worked out in further negotiations,” Makovsky said. “There are even reports about a possible international investment fund in Iran, which would be preposterous with this regime.”
After holding a Situation Room meeting on Friday, Trump reportedly requested several amendments to the negotiated deal, including firmer commitments around Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, leading to another round of negotiations. Iranian state media reported on Monday that its delegation was suspending talks with the U.S. over Israel’s continued strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Plus, pro-Israel lawmakers criticize Israel on Syria strikes
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Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in the Senate Judiciary Committee on January 30, 2025 in Washington, D.C.
Good Thursday afternoon.
This P.M. briefing is reserved for our premium subscribers like you — offering a forward-focused read on what we’re tracking now and what’s coming next.
I’m Danielle Cohen-Kanik, U.S. editor at Jewish Insider and curator, along with assists from my colleagues, of the Daily Overtime briefing. Please don’t hesitate to share your thoughts and feedback by replying to this email.
📡On Our Radar
Notable developments and interesting tidbits we’re tracking
A bipartisan group of pro-Israel lawmakers — Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) — released a statement today criticizing Israeli strikes in Syria overnight.
The lawmakers, who recently returned from Syria, said that the message they heard during their visit “was clear: Syria needs a chance to succeed and move past the violence and strife that consumed the country for over 14 years. Last night’s destabilizing strikes on Syria by Israel make that goal more difficult to achieve.”
“The Syrians are prepared to move forward with Israel to advance peace. It is unclear how long the door to this opportunity will remain open. We call on Israel to seize the moment and immediately cease hostilities,” the group said.
The statement is one of the most public signs yet of friction between even staunch supporters of Israel in Congress and the Israeli government over its approach to the new Syrian government, which has included repeated rounds of strikes on Syrian targets even amid diplomatic engagements. Many U.S. lawmakers, meanwhile, are urging a more optimistic approach.
Syrian state media reported that the strikes also included a ground raid by the IDF near Damascus, which would be the first reported instance of an Israeli ground incursion so far into the country’s territory since the fall of the Assad regime. Syrian forces had reportedly recently uncovered surveillance equipment at a military base in the area…
The IDF also carried out strikes today on Houthi military targets in Sanaa, Yemen, after several Houthi missile and drone attacks on Israel in recent days. Israeli media reported that the strikes, one of which targeted a gathering of top Houthi leaders, may have eliminated the terror group’s minister of defense and chief of staff…
Back in Washington, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer reportedly participated in President Donald Trump’s roundtable on Gaza at the White House yesterday, according to Axios, as he made a last-minute visit to the capital.
A source told the outlet that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and former Trump Mideast advisor Jared Kushner got the green light from the president to develop a post-war plan for Gaza, though few details were hashed out at the meeting.
Dermer reportedly stressed that Israel doesn’t want to occupy Gaza in the long term and wants to see alternative options for parties that could govern Gaza that are not Hamas. “Dermer’s message was: As long as our conditions are met, we will be flexible about everything else,” the source told Axios…
France, Germany and the U.K. sent a letter to members of the U.N. Security Council this morning announcing they are triggering snapback sanctions on Iran, as anticipated after recent diplomatic talks to roll back the Iranian nuclear program yielded little progress.
The move triggers a 30-day timeline before the sanctions go into effect, during which the European countries said they are open to continuing negotiations with Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. will work with the UNSC to “successfully complete” the reinstatement of sanctions. “At the same time,” he said, “the United States remains available for direct engagement with Iran … Snapback does not contradict our earnest readiness for diplomacy, it only enhances it.”
Iran has threatened previously to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if snapback sanctions were imposed, which could have wide-ranging consequences, including a potential regional nuclear arms race…
The UNSC was also busy today with a vote to extend the mandate of UNIFIL, the U.N.’s forces in southern Lebanon, whose mission was due to expire on Sunday. The body voted unanimously to extend the mandate one final time until Dec. 31, 2026, when UNIFIL will have one year to withdraw from Lebanon completely.
Dorothy Shea, acting U.S. representative to the U.N., said in a statement supporting the vote, “The United States notes that the first ‘I’ in UNIFIL stands for ‘Interim.’ The time has come for UNIFIL’s mission to end. This is the last time we will support an extension of UNIFIL”…
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) threatened Norway and its officials with retaliatory tariffs and visa restrictions in response to the decision by Norges Bank Investment Management — the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund — to sell its stake in the American machinery company Caterpillar in response to the Israeli military’s use of its products against Palestinians.
“To those who run Norway’s sovereign wealth fund: if you cannot do business with Caterpillar because Israel uses their products, maybe it’s time you’re made aware that doing business or visiting America is a privilege, not a right,” Graham said on X…
Back in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and World Food Program Executive Director Cindy McCain shared a joint statement after meeting in Jerusalem today, where they agreed that “every effort must be made to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches the most vulnerable people where they are, and that humanitarian aid is provided exclusively to civilians”…
Meanwhile, the Boulder chapter of the group “Run for Their Lives,” which hosts weekly marches to advocate for the release of the hostages held in Gaza, announced it will no longer publicly advertise its walking route, after participants faced continued threats and harassment in the wake of a firebombing attack on one gathering several months ago.
In recent weeks, protesters have stalked and shouted slurs at participants, such as “genocidal c**t,” “racist” and “Nazi,” and have threatened organizers’ children, according to the Colorado Jewish Community Relations Council…
No industry is safe: The Wall Street Journal reports on the tech worker “revolt” over Gaza and how companies are responding, including moderating internal message boards by deleting content and closing discussion threads.
Anti-Israel activists have recently escalated their protests against Microsoft, setting up an encampment at the company’s Redmond, Wash., headquarters, occupying President Brad Smith’s office and rowing kayaks up to the waterfront homes of top executives (Microsoft has asked the FBI for help in tracking and combating these activities)…
⏩ Tomorrow’s Agenda, Today
An early look at tomorrow’s storylines and schedule to keep you a step ahead
Keep an eye on Jewish Insider for reporting on the obstacles Israel and the U.S. may face in negotiating a new memorandum of understanding as the current MOU nears its expiration in 2028.
On Monday, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will host a campaign event with Graham Platner, the anti-Israel Democrat challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), as Collins has been facing increasing antagonism from crowds at home.
We’ll be back in your inbox with the Daily Kickoff and the Daily Overtime on Tuesday. Shabbat shalom and happy Labor Day weekend!
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SULLIVAN SAYS

In an interview with ‘The Bulwark,’ the former national security advisor argued that the argument in favor of restricting military aid is ‘much stronger’ than it was a year ago
Plus, Minneapolis shooting echoes Tree of Life
Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images
Ron Dermer speaks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) policy conference in Washington, DC.
Good Wednesday afternoon.
This P.M. briefing is reserved for our premium subscribers like you — offering a forward-focused read on what we’re tracking now and what’s coming next.
I’m Danielle Cohen-Kanik, U.S. editor at Jewish Insider and curator, along with assists from my colleagues, of the Daily Overtime briefing. Please don’t hesitate to share your thoughts and feedback by replying to this email.
📡On Our Radar
Notable developments and interesting tidbits we’re tracking
Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer made a last-minute visit to Washington today, according to Israeli media, while President Donald Trump convened a meeting on a “comprehensive plan” for postwar Gaza, as Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News last night. It’s unclear if Dermer participated in the meeting himself.
Also in attendance at the White House were former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Trump’s son-in-law and former Mideast advisor Jared Kushner, according to Axios, who have been working with Witkoff on the issue for several months…
Dermer canceled a meeting with World Food Program head Cindy McCain, who is in Israel for the first time since Oct. 7, as he headed to Washington. McCain did meet with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and the head of COGAT, the IDF unit that facilitates humanitarian aid in Gaza. Recall that a whistleblower recently alleged that the WFP had rejected security coordination with the IDF, hampering aid distribution efforts in Gaza…
The alleged gunman who opened fire today on a Catholic school in Minneapolis, killing two children and injuring at least 17 people, most of them students at the school, used a gun that had antisemitic and anti-Israel writings across it, according to the Anti-Defamation League.
Unverified images of the alleged shooter’s gun, taken from a video posted to a YouTube account believed to be associated with the shooter, show scrawlings on the gun and related paraphernalia that say “6 million wasn’t enough,” “Burn Israel,” “Israel must fall” and “Destroy HIAS,” a reference to the Jewish refugee organization.
HIAS, which was also invoked by the Tree of Life synagogue shooter in Pittsburgh in 2018, told Jewish Insider that because of the organization’s focus, it is “sadly often the subject of hateful antisemitic conspiracy theories”…
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar is in Washington today as well, meeting this afternoon with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Foggy Bottom. Sa’ar said the two had “a productive meeting on mutual challenges and interests for both our nations” and discussed the Iranian nuclear threat in the aftermath of the U.S. and Israeli strikes in June, among other issues…
Rubio held a call with the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the U.K. today, during which all of the officials “reiterated their commitment to ensuring that Iran never develops or obtains a nuclear weapon,” as the European nations gear up to trigger snapback sanctions at the U.N. Security Council in the coming days…
a16z Speedrun, a startup accelerator program backed by the Andreessen Horowitz venture capital firm, is in Israel this week. Last night, the program convened a dinner of 20 budding startup founders from elite IDF units…
Hollywood heavyweights including Brad Pitt and Joaquin Phoenix are joining the production team of “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” a film about the killing of a six-year-old Palestinian girl in Gaza in January 2024. Jonathan Glazer, who made headlines for using his Oscar acceptance speech last year to equate Israel’s actions in Gaza with the Holocaust, is a director of the project…
Variety spotlights a new film in production starring Jon Voight and directed by the controversial Bryan Singer, which a source described as set in the Middle East during the First Lebanon War. “It makes Israel look really bad and could be polarizing,” the source said…
⏩ Tomorrow’s Agenda, Today
An early look at tomorrow’s storylines and schedule to keep you a step ahead
Keep an eye on Jewish Insider tomorrow morning for reporting on how security experts are viewing the threat of Iranian influence and attacks in the U.S. in the aftermath of disturbing revelations of Iranian attacks in Australia, and on how the replacement of Sergio Gor with Dan Scavino as head of the Presidential Personnel Office may impact national security personnel decisions in the administration.
Also tomorrow, the Atlantic Council will host an event in Washington on the “past, present, and future” of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, an initiative launched at the G20 Summit in 2023.
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MINNEAPOLIS MOMENT

Democratic insiders told JI that DNC chair Ken Martin withdrew his Israel resolution largely to avoid a disruptive floor debate over Israel on Wednesday























































































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