As the military conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues, Turkish elites have reportedly begun circulating claims that Israel could turn its military attention toward Ankara should Iran emerge from the war depleted — a belief analysts say reflects growing mistrust and conspiratorial thinking in Turkey rather than any actual Israeli intent.

“I have started hearing from inside of Turkey suggesting that there’s a not unsizable position of governing elite circles which do believe that Israel will turn its attention next onto Turkey, militarily or some derivative thereof, after its finished with Iran,” Sinan Ciddi, director of the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said during a livestreamed webinar on Thursday.

Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, called Turkey’s perception of Israel’s intentions as “ridiculous.” 

“I’m surprised that even the sophisticated are deep in this idea that the Israelis are going to take on Turkey next,” said Cook. “All I’m getting from Israeli professional security and diplomatic channels is that ‘we want to find a way to de-conflict with Turkey.’ The fact that the Turkish political elite and government think that this is what the Israelis are going to do is a fundamental misreading.”  

Cook suggested that Turkish officials and elites could be spreading those claims for “political purposes,” arguing that Ankara could be “whipping up anti-Zionist, antisemitic fury.”

“It is very easy for people in Turkey to make up all these conspiracy theories,” Henri Barkey, a senior adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said. He noted that while there is a “great deal of dislike” between Ankara and Jerusalem, there would be “positive aspects” should the two work together for the betterment of the region following the conflict with Iran.

“Turkey and Israel actually have a great deal of trade, over $5 billion a year, and it would make much more sense for Israel to work with Turkey and maybe invest in Iran together,” Barkey said. 

But, he said,  Jerusalem has instead become a “convenient enemy” for Ankara. “We have an Israel that clearly is much more capable than most people expected and is now willing to take on Iran, not once, but twice, so that is a very useful and convenient enemy [for Turkey].”

At the same time, experts said the two countries appear to have sharply different preferences regarding the outcome of the war with Iran.

“I think Turkey desires for the existence of a weakened Islamic Republic with the Islamic regime in charge,” Ciddi said. “But it really does not seek the emergence of a Democratic or ‘free Iran.’”

“Turkey could potentially continue to cooperate and work with a weakened Iran, because a weakened Iran would essentially be able to continue working with its proxy networks to destabilize what Turkey identifies its adversaries in the region, such as Israel, but it will also allow Turkey to grow into the region as this new hegemonic power,” he added.

Cook echoed those sentiments, calling a “greatly weakened Islamic Republic” the best outcome for Ankara. He said a diminished Iranian regime is more likely to “seek help” from Turkey. 

“A weakened Iran will be much more at the beck and call of Turkey on a variety of issues,” Barkey said. “Turkey will be able to exercise much more leverage and get what it wants from Iran.”

Meanwhile, Cook noted that Israel is seeking a much different outcome.

“If something emerges from this conflict that’s called the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is a strategic defeat for Israel,” Cook said. “The Israelis have spent a lot of time and effort trying to create a pathway for the Iranian people to overthrow this regime. It’s a defeat for Israel if that doesn’t happen, and that’s good for Turkey during their current adversarial relationship.”

However, Cook cautioned that such an outcome could also backfire on Turkish ambitions for a more stable region, cautioning to “be careful what you wish for.”

“We’re right that some kind of smaller Islamic Republic that’s IRGC-dominated is the best possible outcome for Turkey, but this is still a potent and dangerous, wounded state,” Cook said. “It’s not great for the region, because if you take the Turks at their word that they want regional stability, they’re not going to get it with some rump version of the Islamic State.”