Daily Kickoff
Good Thursday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we look at the divides within the Democratic Party as its various wings look to the future, cover how President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory is being viewed in Jerusalem and report on the potential consideration of former Rep. Peter Deutsch to be ambassador to Israel. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Rep. Brian Mast, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Eyal Shani.
What We’re Watching
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Rob Satloff will moderate a virtual conversation at noon ET with Sky News Arabia’s Nadim Koteich, The Times of Israel’s David Horovitz and T24’s Barcin Yinanc on Mideast views of the 2024 election.
- Germany’s Bundestag is voting today on legislation to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism.
What You Should Know
The exit polling of Jewish voters in Tuesday’s presidential election — along with preelection polling before it — has been all over the map when it comes to concluding whether or not Republicans made notable gains, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
The Associated Press/Fox News voter analysis shows an unmistakable, incremental shift in Jewish voter preference to Republicans, showing Vice President Kamala Harris winning the Jewish vote 66-32% over former President Donald Trump. That would mark the worst showing for a Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis’ 64% vote share among Jewish voters in 1988 — though only a little bit worse than President Joe Biden’s performance in 2020, when he won Jewish voters, 69-30%.
But the Edison Research exit poll, used by the other major networks, found Harris maintaining rock-solid support with Jewish voters, leading Trump 79-21%. A third exit poll, conducted by the Democratic firm GBAO for the left-wing group J Street, found Harris winning 71% of the Jewish vote, a respectable showing but six points shy of Biden’s performance in its 2020 poll.
Meanwhile, the Orthodox Union released an exit poll of Pennsylvania Jewish voters Wednesday showing Harris only winning 48% of the Jewish vote to Trump’s 41% — a dismal showing in one of the biggest battlegrounds in the country.
Which one is right?
It’s often more useful to look at actual election results over exit polling, even though it can be challenging to isolate Jewish voters within a particular jurisdiction. But after poring over the election results, one pattern emerged that was unmistakable: Counties and jurisdictions with sizable Jewish populations swung notably towards Republicans, compared to 2020.
Some notable examples: Biden won Broward County, Fla., with 64% of the vote. Harris fell six points short of that mark, winning just 58%. Trump carried Nassau County, N.Y., with 52% of the vote; Biden carried the Long Island suburb by a nine-point margin in 2020. In Westchester County, N.Y., Harris’ 63% showing was five points less than Biden’s. In nearby Rockland County, N.Y., with a significant Orthodox Jewish population, Trump carried the county with 56% of the vote. Biden narrowly won the county four years earlier.
In deep-blue Maryland, Biden’s dominant 60-point margin of victory in the Jewish suburb of Montgomery County, Md., shrunk to 51 points for Harris. Bergen County, N.J., home to the largest Jewish population in New Jersey, saw Harris barely winning with 51% after Biden dominated with 58% of the vote in 2020. The neighboring county of Passaic, a majority-Hispanic county with a sizable Orthodox Jewish population, voted Republican for the first time since 1992.
The swing was notable in the biggest battleground states, as well. In the affluent Philadelphia suburb of Montgomery County, Pa., where Harris was expected to run up the score, the vice president’s 61% showing fell two points shy of Biden’s vote share. Harris also carried only 54% of the vote in the Detroit suburb of Oakland County, Mich. — also falling two points shy of Biden’s showing.
As more granular, precinct-by-precinct totals get reported, we’ll get a clearer picture of just how much ground Democrats lost with Jewish voters, whether the defections were more pronounced than Harris’ across-the-board slippage from 2020, and whether she had a political obstacle with mainly Orthodox Jewish voters or a more systemic challenge with Jewish voters across the religious spectrum.
political reckoning
After Trump victory, Democrats debate what comes next
As Democrats grapple with the reality of a second Trump presidency, they have already begun to bicker over what’s next for the party. Former President Donald Trump won handily this week, with county-level data showing swings to the right in nearly every jurisdiction in the country. The question of how Democrats can avoid such a rout in the future has already started to divide the party into familiar camps, with a battle brewing between the party’s moderate and progressive wings — with Harris’ handling of Israel and the war in Gaza sure to play a role, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
Look in the mirror: “I think if you’re a Democrat in America today, Nov. 6, 2024, whether you’re in New Jersey or wherever you are, if you’re not sober, looking in the mirror, being cold-blooded honest with yourself … you’re living in fantasyland,” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, said on Wednesday. In New Jersey, Biden beat Trump by 16 points in 2020. This year, Harris beat Trump in the state by just five points.
Bonus: The New York Times’ Bret Stephens suggests that Democrats “have become the party of priggishness, pontification and pomposity,” adding, “It may make them feel righteous, but how’s that ever going to be a winning electoral look?”
envoy ambition
Deutsch expresses interest in becoming ambassador to Israel
Peter Deutsch, a former Democratic congressman from South Florida who endorsed Donald Trump for president last month, has recently spoken with multiple people about his interest in becoming the next U.S. ambassador to Israel, according to sources familiar with the matter. Deutsch, who spent the past month volunteering as a Trump surrogate in Pennsylvania and splits his time between Florida and Israel, has not been in direct touch with the campaign about the role, one source confirmed to Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel on Wednesday. But he has had conversations with some leading pro-Israel activists who could potentially influence the selection process — including Sander Gerber, a hedge fund executive who helped write the Taylor Force Act.
Name ‘floated’: “He would be an excellent ambassador to Israel,” Gerber said of Deutsch, whom he has known for decades. Deutsch, who was seen as an outspoken party loyalist during his time in Congress, “has a unique profile because he was a Democrat but he felt very, very strongly about the Trump campaign,” Gerber added. Gerber told JI that Deutsch’s name “has been floated” to the Trump team, but declined to share additional details about whether he is under serious consideration for the role. “There are a number of candidates, but Peter’s one of them,” he said. “I think it’d be great to have a U.S. ambassador who has relationships within the pro-Israel Democrat community.”
bibi bouyed
Netanyahu’s office hopeful after Trump election victory
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s vote as a positive step for U.S. policy on Israel, a source familiar with the prime minister’s thinking told Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov. Netanyahu hopes that Trump will return to his former policies on Iran that were dropped by the Biden administration, the source said. Those policies include major sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
War and peace: As for Trump’s repeated calls for Israel to wind down its multifront war, the view in Jerusalem is that he means for Israel to win, rather than reach a cease-fire that would stop the war prior to a decisive Israeli victory. In addition, the prime minister and his advisors are hopeful that Trump will successfully expand the Abraham Accords and lead more Arab and Muslim states to normalize relations with Israel.
Read the full story here.
communal reactions
Jewish groups congratulate, express concern as Trump reelected
The fault lines in the Jewish community were on full view as groups on the left, right and center reacted to former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday night, some describing the outcome as “terrifying” and a “dark moment,” and others expressing hope for fruitful collaborations. The organizations’ statements reflected their priorities: addressing rising antisemitism in the U.S, securing the U.S.-Israel relationship, defending reproductive rights and preserving the well-being of minorities. Overall, statements were largely consistent with the ones expressed by the same groups after Trump was elected to serve his first term as president in 2016, Jewish Insider’s Haley Cohen and eJewishPhilanthropy’s Nira Dayanim report for eJP.
Mixed bag: “We look forward to working together with the new administration and Republicans and Democrats in Congress to strengthen and expand the U.S.-Israel relationship,” AIPAC said in a statement. The American Jewish Committee highlighted its work with the previous Trump administration, “particularly on efforts to advance Israel’s regional integration – including the Abraham Accords,” it said in a statement. Meanwhile, HIAS referred to Trump’s calls throughout the campaign to deport undocumented immigrants, saying, “In this dark moment, HIAS reaffirms our commitment to stand in solidarity with immigrant and refugee communities around the country, with Jewish communities and with all marginalized populations who may now be in danger. We will not be intimidated into silence or inaction. We will fight every day for people seeking refuge.”
calling out connections
Rep. Mast urges visa ban for British MP over alleged Hamas ties
Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), in a letter sent earlier this week, urged Secretary of State Tony Blinken to block a member of the British parliament from entering the United States, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
Go deeper: “There is substantial public evidence that MP [Naseem] Shah has connections to known terrorist organizations,” Mast said, citing her past affiliations with two U.K. organizations that have links to Hamas. “It is imperative that the United States send a clear signal to the world that politicians who support terrorists are not welcome on American soil.” Shah is scheduled to speak on Nov. 13 at a conference organized by the Muslim Public Affairs Council in Washington, D.C.; MPAC lists her as a “featured speaker” for the conference.
see you in court
Split preliminary ruling on Harvard antisemitism case
A federal lawsuit against Harvard University that alleges the school has ignored the harassment of Jewish students for more than a year is set to begin after a U.S. District Court judge on Tuesday rejected Harvard’s request for dismissal, but denied claims that the school directly discriminated against Jewish and Israeli students, Jewish Insider’s Haley Cohen reports.
Background: Filed in May in federal court in Boston by the Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law and Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education, the lawsuit alleges that since the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel, students and faculty on campus have called for violence against Jews and celebrated Hamas’ terrorism daily as the university did nothing to stop harassment — including a physical assault — of Jewish students. In Tuesday’s decision, Judge Robert Stearns wrote that to prove deliberate indifference, plaintiffs must plead that the school “either did nothing or failed to take additional reasonable measures after it learned that its initial remedies were ineffective.”
Worthy Reads
How Trump Did It: The Free Press’ Eli Lake considers the factors that led to President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral success. “How did he do it? Trump led an insurgency of oddball outsiders against an insular band of out-of-touch elites. Kamala Harris had Beyoncé, Harvard economists, The New York Times, and the cast of ‘Saturday Night Live.’ Trump had Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy Jr., Joe Rogan, and the Teamster rank and file. In a year when Americans were angry, this misfit coalition was a tribune for their rage. … And while the Democrats hammered away at Trump’s penchant for lying, voters could see that the Democrats lied too. Not least about Biden’s health. Meanwhile, Trump — the king of the meme — demonstrated a mastery of the political image, creating iconic visuals that defined him as a champion for half the country.” [FreePress]
Put Up Your Dukakis: In The Bulwark, Kenneth Baer, founder of Crosscut strategies and former associate director of OMB during the Obama administration, suggests that a major shortcoming in the Harris campaign was a repeat of Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis’ failure in 1988 to respond to attacks by his then-rival, George Bush. “That painful loss in 1988 directly led the next Democratic standard-bearer, Bill Clinton, to set up a literal ‘war room’ to respond to attacks. And in the years since, opposition research has become an art form, with trackers following every step an opponent takes on the trail waiting for a gaffe, to keyboard jockeys mining social media for an embarrassing post. Those who insisted on being above the fray, such as Senator Bill Bradley in the 2000 Democratic primaries, lost. Yet a review of this year’s ad spending reveals the puzzling choice by the Harris campaign to revert back to the ways of the Duke — even as she faced a relentless barrage of Trump attacks, akin to what Bush did to Dukakis nearly four decades ago. Team Trump ran ads such as ‘Dangerously Liberal’ that argued Harris would reduce meat consumption, ban fracking, and force a mandatory buyback program for guns. If the message wasn’t clear enough, it included an audio clip of her saying, ‘Yeah, I am a radical.’ … But save for one ad that laid out how tough the vice president was on immigration and crime associated with it, the Harris side did not respond in kind to any of these attacks.” [TheBulwark]
Looking Left: New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait reflects on how the outcome of presidential election was caused in part by Democrats’ leftward shift. “The seeds of Harris’s failure were planted eight years ago, when the Democratic Party responded to Trump’s 2016 victory not by moving toward the center, as defeated parties often do, but by moving away from it. This decision was fueled by a series of reality-distorting blinders on the Democrats’ decision-making elite. During the first Trump era, public polls showed the president immediately and deeply unpopular, fueling the belief that Americans opposed him so overwhelmingly that Democrats did not need to make any ideological compromises to win. And that misperception was fueled by the pervasive influence of social media, especially Twitter, which fostered a delusional sense that the Democratic base had veered far to the left. Candidate after candidate bowed to demands of progressive groups to endorse unpopular stances favored by the left. This self-destructive process was shaped by a culture of moral absolutism on the left, in which any compromise at all is seen as tantamount to an endorsement of bigotry, genocide, and ecological collapse.” [NYMag]
Word on the Street
The Biden administration is reportedly considering ways in which to protect some of its foreign policy schievements in a way that would prevent the incoming Trump administration from reversing enacted policies…
The Wall Street Journal looks at how foreign governments and U.S. allies are preparing for the Trump administration’s shift away from Biden-era policies at a time when Iran, Russia and Beijing are deepening their cooperation…
The New York Times talks to voters in Dearborn, Mich., who backed President-elect Donald Trump, many of whom expressed disappointment with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Trump carried Dearborn with 42% of the vote, while Harris received 36%…
An anti-Israel activist in Michigan who praised Hamas and Hezbollah was elected to the school board in Dearborn…
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) eked out a victory against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in Michigan’s Senate race…
Eugene Vindman was declared the winner over Derrick Anderson in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District…
The Chicago Police Department is investigating an incident in which two Jewish students at DePaul University were attacked as they were “visibly showing their support for Israel,” the school’s president said…
Israeli chef Eyal Shani is slated to open his fourth Malka restaurant in West Palm Beach, Fla., by the end of the year; in addition to the original Tel Aviv location, there are two Malka offshoots in New York City…
Renewed scrutiny over Leni Riefenstahl’s WWII-era activities and footage the Nazi propagandist took in Sudan is reigniting debate over whether she’d distanced herself from her early political beliefs…
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi is mulling a visit to Iran in the coming days to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program…
The Israeli Ministry of Defense signed a transaction to acquire the next generation of F-15 fighter jets, purchasing 25 advanced aircraft from Boeing, part of a broader package of U.S. aid approved earlier this year; the first jets will be delivered in 2031…
The U.N. removed a piece of art in a Turtle Bay exhibition that included a drawing that erased Israel’s existence and included the phrase, “From the river to the sea”…
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired the country’s finance minister and announced an upcoming confidence vote; the vote is expected to fail, clearing the way for new elections in the spring…
Canadian officials ordered the closure of TikTok’s offices in the country, citing the risk the application poses to national security…
Morocco’s foreign minister reasserted the North African country’s ties with Israel for the first time since the Hamas terror attacks on Oct. 7, 2023…
New Hezbollah head Naim Qassem said that the Iran-backed terror group would agree to a diplomatic settlement with Israel only if Jerusalem ends its military operations in Lebanon…
Pic of the Day
Mia Schem, who was held hostage in Gaza for nearly two months, spoke at a U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday during a special session to discuss Israel’s recent move to ban UNRWA operations in the country.
Birthdays
Neuropsychiatrist, a 1944 graduate of Yeshivah of Flatbush and 2000 Nobel Prize laureate in Medicine, Eric Kandel turns 95…
Former U.S. senator from Minnesota, he later served on the boards of AIPAC and JINSA, Rudy Boschwitz turns 94… MIT professor in electrical engineering and computer science, Barbara Liskov turns 85… Senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, he was the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Donald Kohn turns 82… University professor at Harvard, expert on Shakespeare, he is a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, Stephen Greenblatt turns 81… Founding president of Santa Monica, Calif., synagogue, Kehilat Maarav, and senior partner in the West Los Angeles law firm of Selvin & Weiner, Beryl Weiner turns 81… Entrepreneur, bar owner and television personality, Jonathan “Jon” Peter Taffer turns 70… Constituent affairs representative and community liaison for Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), Laurie Tobias Cohen… Volunteer coordinator for the Atlanta-Fulton Public Library, Marcy Meyers… Funeral director at Berkowitz-Kumin-Bookatz in Cleveland Heights, Ohio, Michael R. Holub… Director, writer and showrunner of the legal drama series “Suits,” Aaron Thomas Korsh turns 58… Former professional racing driver, now CEO of McLaren Racing, Zakary Challen Brown turns 53… Chairman and CEO of luxury apparel company Canada Goose, Dani Reiss turns 51… European casino owner, art collector and CEO of Vestar Group, Leon Tsoukernik turns 51… Deputy mayor of Jerusalem, Aryeh Yitzhak King turns 51… EVP of communications at NBC Universal, Jennifer B. Friedman… Reporter for Sportico focused on the business of college sports, Daniel Libit… Baseball outfielder, he won two minor league batting titles, Brian Horwitz turns 42… Consultant for family foundations, he holds two graduate degrees in nursing, Avi Zenilman… Northeast regional deputy director at AIPAC, Alexa Jordan Silverman… National political reporter at Politico, Elena Schneider… Founder and CEO emeritus at Swipe Out Hunger, Rachel Sumekh… Founder and CEO of Count Me In, Shane Feldman… Co-founder and CEO at Moneta Labs Limited, Tomer Aharonovitch… President and CEO of the Boston-based Jewish Alliance for Law & Social Action, Cindy Rowe…
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