As New Jersey’s competitive gubernatorial primary takes place today, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) looks like the front-runner in the crowded Democratic field but without much public polling and a late flurry of advertising, there’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to who will emerge as the nominee in the six-way race.  

Sherrill, a military veteran who has represented a suburban north New Jersey seat since 2018, is the favorite of many Democratic Party officials and has been leading in the limited public polling of the race. The congresswoman has also been one of the top fundraisers in the field, along with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), who has been courting support from the state’s sizable Jewish community.

“Josh has been betting on the Jewish community coming out strong, and there is a realistic possibility that if new voters emerge in places like Lakewood, which is the fifth-largest city in New Jersey now, it could play a decisive role,” one Jewish community activist, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss the primary, told Jewish Insider on Monday. 

But even as Gottheimer won a key endorsement last month from the Lakewood Vaad, an influential coalition of rabbis from the state’s largest Orthodox Jewish community, other observers expressed some skepticism that the moderate congressman’s strategy of consolidating Jewish support will be enough for him to prevail in the primary to replace Gov. Phil Murphy, a term-limited Democrat.

“I just don’t know if it’s going to be able to be enough to give him the edge,” said Shlomo Schorr, the director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office. “It was maybe a bit too late to get the turnout that they had wanted and needed.”

Though Schorr said that Gottheimer’s strong showing in early voting so far in major Orthodox communities such as Teaneck and Lakewood could peel support away from Sherrill, he also speculated that it could help to fuel another candidate, Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, running as a progressive-minded anti-establishment challenger. 

Fulop, a Jewish Democrat whose campaign is appealing to progressive, younger voters, has said “every single person has a pathway to win.” He has faced backlash from Jewish leaders for opposing legislation to enshrine the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism into state law, though he later walked back his remarks in a mailer aimed at Jewish voters.

Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark whose coalition in some ways overlaps with Fulop, has experienced a late surge thanks largely to his high-profile arrest last month outside an immigration detention facility in New Jersey, even as his record of commentary on key issues such as Israel and antisemitism has raised concerns among many Jewish leaders in the state.

The other Democrats in the primary include Stephen Sweeney, a moderate who served as president of the state Senate, and Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association who has drawn significant outside support from a super PAC spending more than $8 million to boost his campaign. 

Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman backed by President Donald Trump, is favored to clinch the Republican nomination. He came close to unseating Murphy in 2021, winning Lakewood in the process. The Vaad has also endorsed his campaign this cycle.

The results of the Democratic primary are more volatile, particularly without the so-called county line that had bestowed establishment-backed candidates with preferential ballot placement.

“With no line, all bets are off,” said a Jewish activist who is not taking sides in the race, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address the primary. “It’s all turnout. I still think it’s Mikie’s to lose. Her team is confident, as is the candidate. But I guess they all are.”

Following the murder of two Israeli Embassy employees outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), a New Jersey gubernatorial candidate, wrote to federal leaders to call for further action to protect the Jewish community and raised concerns about growing trends of antisemitic violence across the country.

Sherrill wrote to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi to call on the government to provide additional resources and funding to allow houses of worship and nonprofits to protect themselves — including through the Nonprofit Security Grant Program — and ensure that law enforcement can properly investigate and prevent antisemitic violence.

In the letter, Sherrill described the shooting as unequivocally motivated by antisemitism and as  “an assault on the core values and ideals of our nation — particularly the right to religious expression and to practice one’s faith without fear of violence” and said “we must take every effort to prevent it from happening again.” She said the attack “highlight[s] the threat of violence against Jewish Americans and residents across the United States.”

“As antisemitic violence and threats have increased, I remain concerned that synagogues, Jewish faith-based organizations, and nonprofits are under-resourced for the heightened threats that they face,” Sherrill said. “I urge you to take whatever actions you can to ensure that the programs that support these organizations are properly resourced and staffed.”

In addition to NSGP funding, Sherrill expressed concerns that funding cuts will leave “initiatives within your departments meant to combat antisemitism and other hate crimes … unable to address the rising threat that we face today.” She pointed specifically to a range of programs to address and prevent hate crimes.

The administration has sought to cut funding from hate crime grant programs it claimed violate the First Amendment. Sherrill urged the administration to “maintain and expand funding for these programs.”

Sherrill linked the shooting to the April arson attack on the residence of Penn. Gov. Josh Shapiro, pointing to the arson as another example of the “ever-present risk of antisemitism and violence to all Jewish Americans,” given that the arsonist, who targeted the governor’s mansion on the first night of Passover, was allegedly motivated by Shapiro’s support for Israel. Sherrill also highlighted vandalism and firebombing incidents at synagogues in her district. 

“Our country faces a crisis of antisemitic violence and threats that show no signs of abating,” Sherrill wrote. “It is vital that the federal government take urgent action to protect Jewish communities, prosecute perpetrators of antisemitic hate crimes, and support community programs to counter antisemitism. Jewish Americans face the severe threat of antisemitic violence every day, and it is long past time that the U.S. federal government prioritizes their safety.”

Another gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), publicly urged other candidates in the race to support state legislation to codify the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism last week, in response to the shooting. Sherrill has said she supports that bill.

Some in the Jewish community have seen Sherrill’s record on Jewish issues as spotty at times compared to Gottheimer, but a pair of progressive candidates with more questionable records on such issues have become increasingly competitive against Sherrill, who leads in polling.