After months of an increasingly bitter campaign characterized by tens of millions in outside spending and increasingly heated debate over Israel policy, Democrats in the Chicagoland area head to the polls on Tuesday, with the outcome of the primaries potentially reshaping the political landscape in Chicago, one of the most Jewish cities in the country. 

The races are also set to be a test of AIPAC and the pro-Israel community’s political strategy and heft. There are four House races that pro-Israel groups are reportedly engaged in, and their success rate in those primaries will be an early indicator of whether resources can overcome the shifting winds in a party that is becoming increasingly hostile to the Jewish state. 

Broadly, a source close to AIPAC said, the group’s main goal in the primaries is to prevent six candidates — state Sen. Robert Peters in the 2nd District, activist Kina Collins in the 7th, activist Junaid Ahmed and Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole in the 8th and influencer Kat Abughazaleh and Skokie School Board member Bushra Amiwala in the 9th —  from being elected, as it believes those candidates would be aligned with the far-left ‘Squad’ on Israel policy issues if elected to Congress.

That’s an apparent change in strategy from the recent special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, where spending by the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project against a relative moderate who had expressed an openness to conditioning aid to Israel helped elect a far-left candidate with more hostile views.

Here’s what we’re watching, and where the races stand.

Illinois Senate

This race appears to be effectively a two-way contest between Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL), who has been carving out the left-most lane (including on Israel policy), has been trailing further behind in most polling and will have the hardest climb to victory, despite backing from the Congressional Black Caucus.

Krishnamoorthi, who has taken the most moderate and most pro-Israel posture, would likely benefit most from Stratton and Kelly splitting the Black and progressive Democratic vote in the state. A super PAC backing Krishnamoorthi has taken to promoting both him and Kelly while attacking Stratton.

Some recent polling has shown Stratton, who has been trying to balance criticism of Israel while also maintaining support within the Jewish community, closing in on Krishnamoorthi in the final stretch of the race.

Though Krishnamoorthi has been the most prolific fundraiser in the race, Stratton has benefited from more than $13 million in spending by the Illinois Future PAC, backed by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his family, Stratton’s main political backer.

Stratton has hit Krishnamoorthi as overly supportive of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, in part by pointing to his vote in support of a resolution condemning the attack on an Israeli hostage awareness march in Boulder, Colo., last year, which also included language thanking ICE.

Krishnamoorthi also took a hit last week with a story that described him as mistreating employees as he amassed his war chest for this Senate run. Meanwhile, Stratton’s campaign is touting what it says is a deathbed endorsement by Rev. Jesse Jackson, who died last month.

2nd Congressional District

Despite poor fundraising as compared to others in the field and a term in prison for a corruption scandal, former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) has long been the favorite to win the 2nd Congressional District seat, an effort likely aided by national attention over his father’s death.

Affordable Chicago Now, a new super PAC reported to be supported by pro-Israel backers, has been boosting Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, putting $4.3 million behind her campaign.

An AI industry-linked super PAC has stepped in to help boost Jackson’s chances. Miller has also faced attacks from the Working Families Party for receiving pro-Israel support.

Peters has been trying to carve out the far-left lane in the district, including by taking a strongly critical line toward Israel and AIPAC, though Jewish Insider reported that he had previously reached out to the group early in his campaign, offering a very different set of policy priorities. 

7th Congressional District

The AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project and a cryptocurrency industry group have been supporting Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin in the race, helping push her toward the top of the field. UDP has spent more than $5 million in the race. Conyears-Ervin has also received support from the Chicago Teachers’ Union, which has been hostile toward Israel.

Other notable candidates include state Rep. LaShawn Ford, who is Rep. Danny Davis’ (D-IL) preferred successor, and has taken significant heat from the crypto-backed Fairshake. 

The progressive Collins, who has long held hostile stances toward Israel, is making her third run at the seat, but attention from progressive and anti-Israel interests has also turned toward Anthony Driver Jr., a union organizer who has seen support from outside spending by an SEIU-linked group, among other progressive candidates. That group has spent more than $550,000 hitting Conyears-Ervin, in part for receiving pro-Israel support.

Jason Friedman, a Jewish real estate developer and longtime Jewish federation leader who has taken a largely pro-Israel stance, has led the field in fundraising, but it’s unclear how he might fare in a historically Black district. UDP’s ads have also directly responded to Friedman’s criticism of Conyears-Ervin’s past corruption issues, attacking Friedman.

8th Congressional District

Former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) is seen as the strong front-runner in the race, and is the most likely victory for pro-Israel voters in the Chicagoland House primaries.

By contrast, Ahmed has consolidated support among the progressive left and has staked out an anti-Israel stance on the trail. A poll released Sunday showed Bean in the lead, but Ahmed closing in, just five points behind.

Bean has been backed by pro-Israel groups, the AI industry and cryptocurrency advocates. Meanwhile, Justice Democrats and the anti-Israel IMEU Policy Project have been spending in the district in an attempt to undercut Bean and boost Ahmed. 

Chicago Progressive Partnership, a group rumored to be linked to AIPAC, has recently been hitting Ahmed from the left, putting $664,000 behind that effort.

Other candidates in the race include Bankole, Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison and entrepreneur Neil Khot. Khot has led the field in fundraising with around $2 million, though a majority of that has been self-funded.

9th Congressional District

The 9th District seat has become the most watched and most bitter of the four House primaries in the Chicago area — with Middle East policy and pro-Israel funding becoming one of the most contentious issues, to the extent that those issues dominated a recent televised debate.

The top tier of candidates includes Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, far-left activist and influencer Abughazaleh and state Sen. Laura Fine. Fine has charted out the most moderate and pro-Israel stance of the three, while Biss has leaned toward a progressive posture critical of Israel and Abughazaleh has taken an even harder anti-Israel line.

Though Biss and Fine at one point appeared to be the top candidates, recent polling has shown Fine falling behind and Abughazaleh closing the gap with Biss, who has consistently led in polling.

Abughazaleh finished out the race as the top fundraiser, pulling in $3.4 million, followed by Fine and Biss neck-and-neck at $2.6 and $2.5 million, respectively.

Elect Chicago Women, reportedly backed by pro-Israel donors, has put $5.8 million into supporting Fine and attacking Biss, but pro-Israel groups appear to have shifted their strategy in the final weeks of the campaign amid Abughazaleh’s surge.

Attacks on Biss have tapered off, while Chicago Progressive Partnership has been hammering Abughazaleh with more than $1.2 million in spending in just a few weeks. Most recently, the group has also been boosting Skokie School Board member Bushra Amiwala, in an apparent attempt to siphon off some of Abughazaleh’s base.

Meanwhile, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and actor and anti-Israel activist Mark Ruffalo offered endorsements for Abughazaleh over the weekend.

Though the pro-Israel community’s strategy in this race has been different than the one it took in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, where attacks on a liberal candidate helped elect another candidate from the far-left, there’s been longstanding fear among some in the local Jewish community that outside groups’ concerted anti-Biss attacks could end up electing the far-left Abughazaleh.

JI found that Biss reached out to AIPAC before formally announcing his campaign, and that his stances on Israel policy have also evolved significantly since he entered the race, including supporting efforts to cut off weapons transfers to the Jewish state. 

Biss also faced grilling from the House Education Committee over his decision to withhold police support when Northwestern University sought to clear an anti-Israel encampment on campus in 2024.

J Street has spent around $150,000 boosting Biss.