Vice President JD Vance blamed Republicans’ poor performance in the midterm elections on the U.S. war in Iran, calling it “obvious to almost everyone,” as well as the current state of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Vance offered his assessment in a lengthy statement on X on Wednesday morning, attributing the fact that “many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026” to the Trump administration’s approach to Middle East politics. 

“There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true,” Vance wrote. “But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.”

“In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement — by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance,” he continued. “But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”

The vice president said that a pollster, whom he described as “one of the smartest people I know in politics,” told him on Tuesday that some voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 “were angry and planning to vote for Democrats” due to four primary reasons: a desire to “end the war” in Iran, to “focus on cost of living/inflation,” to “put America First,” and to “change our relationship to Israel.”

“Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats,” Vance said. 

“If you’d like to argue [the Iran war] was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest,” he continued. “But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

Vance’s comments came as he faced a notable conservative defection on the Hill: Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN) told Fox News on Wednesday that he planned to support Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, citing the need to “do better at communicating,” especially on messaging around illegal immigration. (Rubio hasn’t declared any intent to run for president, though is viewed as a leading contender if he did.)