Florida’s Republican primaries on Tuesday will be a critical test for far-right candidates who have built their campaigns on open antisemitism, providing hard data on how popular those views have become in the GOP.

Neither gubernatorial candidate James Fishback nor Dan Bilzerian, who is challenging Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, are expected to win. But the extent of the support they’re able to pick up will be instructive.

Polling has shown that Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) is likely to easily win the gubernatorial primary — and therefore the governorship — with the backing of President Donald Trump. But Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Fishback will be competing for the second-place slot.

Fishback has embraced and celebrated neo-Nazi influencer Nick Fuentes and his “groyper” followers and leaned into a variety of antisemitic tropes and conspiracy theories. He has also vowed to cut ties with Israel and suggested he would scale back state efforts to combat antisemitism. 

He has also run a racist campaign, including repeatedly referring to Donalds, who is Black, as a “slave,” telling a Black Floridian they should be lynched and invoking other bigoted tropes.

Fishback’s campaign has attracted attention from younger GOP voters in particular, with some polls showing him far outpacing Donalds among voters under 35 — as well as support from donors who have backed far-left anti-Israel Democrats.

Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Florida, said that the extent of Donalds’ victory is the key question at the moment. He predicted that Fishback could pick up more than 10% of the vote, and potentially outperform Collins.

“It’s more of a testament to Byron running away with it and everyone knowing it,” O’Connell said, explaining his prediction of a poor performance by Collins. Trump’s endorsement of Donalds — which the president has frequently highlighted — should push Donalds to a commanding victory, he continued.

At the same time, “the one thing that Fishback has shown himself to be good at is garnering media attention. … I think this is about gaining name ID, gaining attention,” O’Connell continued.

He suggested that Fishback’s gubernatorial run might be a bid to gain public attention as a pretext for a future race for a lower political office. “We don’t know what his ultimate goal is. Is he going to run for another office?”

O’Connell also predicted a poor performance by Bilzerian, who has garnered bipartisan criticism in recent days over a blatantly antisemitic and pro-Hitler advertisement targeting Fine posted by Bilzerian on social media.

He predicted that Bilzerian’s final margin will amount to a “statistical anomaly” and that another candidate, Aaron Baker, who is also challenging Fine, may outperform Bilzerian. Baker has also been critical of Israel including opposing aid for its offensive weapons and calling for conditions on U.S. aid.

Bilzerian has put $1 million of his own money into the race, raising an additional $240,000, trailing far behind Fine, who raised more than $4 million. Baker has only raised $109,000.

Collins, the lieutenant governor, endorsed a third candidate in the primary, Charles Gambaro, a local official.

Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) might be in the most danger of any incumbent Florida Republican, having been dogged for months by a growing series of scandals and investigations related to alleged domestic violence and harassment, financial misconduct, sexual misconduct, stolen valor and alleged use of his office for his own financial gain. Mills has denied any wrongdoing.

Mills’ wedding was also officiated by a radical imam who was believed to be a key fundraiser for Hamas and listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, who also expressed antisemitic and anti-American sentiments in his sermons. Mills denied any knowledge of the imam’s affiliations.

O’Connell predicted that Mills is likely to lose to Ryan Elijah, a former local TV anchor, consistent with a recent poll showing Elijah opening up a commanding lead over Mills ahead of primary day.

“The allegations might have caught up to Cory in terms of winning there. So that looks like an uphill climb for Cory in Florida[‘s 7th Congressional District], based on all the numbers I’ve seen,” O’Connell said. “He would need a hefty Election Day turnout. It’s not unheard of, but it’s just highly unlikely that he’s going to win.”

Both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have backed away from Mills in recent weeks in light of the scandals and declined to intervene in support of him. O’Connell described Mills as “trying to cling to an endorsement” from Trump that largely predated the scrutiny into his scandals. 

O’Connell predicted that Republicans would be able to hold the seat even if Mills wins the primary election, though Democrats have seen Mills as potentially a ripe target if he’s renominated.