Newsom, Gallego veer left with 2028 in sight
Plus, Tehran attacks Azerbaijan
Add JewishInsider on Google👋 Good Thursday morning!
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on yesterday’s failed war powers resolution vote in the Senate and preview a similar vote in the House today. We take a closer look at the leftward shifts on Israel by both California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) as both men gear up for potential 2028 presidential bids, and spotlight a series of recent public opinion polls in Israel and the U.S. about attitudes toward the war in Iran. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ahmad Vahidi.
Today’s Daily Kickoff was curated by JI Executive Editor Melissa Weiss and Israel Editor Tamara Zieve, with assists from Danielle Cohen-Kanik and Marc Rod. Have a tip? Email us here.
What We’re Watching
- The House is slated to vote on a war powers resolution today, a day after a similar effort was blocked by Senate Republicans. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), an isolationist-leaning lawmaker, said he plans to vote with most Democrats in support of the resolution, joining Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). A few Democrats are expected to oppose the resolution. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), a moderate House Democrat, said he will also support the resolution. With razor-thin margins in the House, the ultimate outcome could come down to the number of Democratic defections, and potential absences, though Republicans have expressed confidence that the vote will fail.
- The House will separately vote on a Republican-led resolution affirming that Iran remains the leading state sponsor of terrorism.
- Elbridge Colby, the Trump administration’s under secretary of defense for policy, is testifying this morning on the U.S. National Defense Strategy before the House Armed Services Committee.
- The House Foreign Affairs Committee is holding a hearing this morning with Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy Sarah Rogers.
- Elsewhere on the Hill, the Muslim World League is hosting an interfaith iftar gathering later today.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom is slated to be interviewed by anti-Israel podcaster Jack Cocchiarella in New Hampshire today for a conversation that is expected to heavily focus on Israel. More below on Newsom’s sharp left turn on Israel in recent months.
What You Should Know
A QUICK WORD WITH JI’S LAHAV HARKOV AND TAMARA ZIEVE
More than 80% of Israelis support the war against Iran, polls by two major Israeli research institutions found this week, while several U.S. polls found that a majority of Americans oppose it.
The Israel Democracy Institute found that 82% of Israelis — 93% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Israeli Arabs — support the war with Iran. Among Jewish Israelis, the war has strong support across the political spectrum, with 76% of respondents on the left backing it, 93% of voters from the center and 97% from the right.
Similarly, the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University found that 81% of Israelis back the war against Iran, and 63% support continuing military efforts until the Iranian regime falls. Among Jewish Israelis, support for the war was at 92%, while only 38% of Israeli Arabs support it. About half (49%) of Israeli Arabs oppose the war, while the rest said they did not know.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., a CNN poll, conducted by SSRS shortly after the war began on Saturday, found that nearly 41% of Americans approve of the U.S. military action in Iran, with a sharp divide between Republicans, Democrats and independents — 77% of Republicans approve of the launch of the operation, compared to 32% of independents and 18% of Democrats. The poll found that 59% of Americans disapprove of the U.S. decision to strike.
Similarly, an NBC poll found that 41% of American registered voters approve of President Donald Trump’s approach to Iran, while 54% disapprove and 5% aren’t sure. Just 8% of Democrats approve of the president’s handling of the situation, while 79% of Republicans and 28% of independents approve of it. In addition, the poll found that 52% oppose the current U.S. military operation. A sizable majority of Republicans (77%) agree with the U.S. decision to strike Iran, while 89% of Democrats and 58% of independents disagree.
There is a further divide between self-identified MAGA-aligned Republicans and other Republicans, the poll found: 90% of the former back the strikes, while 54% of the latter support them. The CNN poll found that MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to strongly approve of the decision to take military action.
MILITARY UPDATE
Day 6: Repatriation flights briefly delayed in the air as Iran shoots missiles at Israel
Some of the first repatriation flights carrying Israelis who had been stranded abroad were briefly held mid-flight on Thursday morning as Iranian missiles were fired at central Israel. El Al, Arkia, Israir and Air Haifa repatriation flights began departing for Israel on Wednesday evening from dozens of destinations in Europe, the U.S. and Thailand, and began landing Thursday morning. Several flights needed to briefly detour while en route to Ben Gurion Airport after Iran shot missiles toward central Israel. The flights are expected to continue through the weekend, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.
Developments: Iran also attacked Azerbaijan for the first time Thursday morning, launching drones that injured two at Nakhchivan International Airport. Shortly after, Baku vowed to respond to the attack. Italy, Spain, France and the Netherlands said they would send naval vessels to Cyprus, after an Iranian UAV struck a British base on the island state. The IDF has been preparing for the possibility that the Houthis will begin striking Israel as they have done sporadically since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel, Israeli media reported. The Houthis have threatened to fire at Gulf States if they attack Iran, and Saudi Arabia increased security for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in case of a Houthi attack, according to Israeli public broadcaster KAN.
FINGER IN THE WIND
Gavin Newsom shifts hard left on Israel policy amid presidential primary considerations
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Tuesday night on a popular liberal podcast that the U.S. should reconsider its military support for Israel, a marked evolution for a politician who traveled to Israel less than two weeks after the Oct. 7 terror attacks in 2023 and who said in an October interview that he would not consider eliminating U.S. military aid to Israel, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports. Asked by Jon Favreau, the co-host of “Pod Save America,” if the U.S. should, in the future, rethink its military support for Israel, Newsom responded, “It breaks my heart because the current leadership in Israel is walking us down that path where I don’t think you have a choice.”
Zoom out: Newsom’s move away from military support for Israel is a shift even from his recent positions. In October, during an interview with the “Higher Learning” podcast, Newsom said he would not support ending U.S. military aid to Israel. He touted his decision in December 2023 to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, while also defending Israel’s right to exist. Newsom is widely considered a 2028 presidential contender, and he has been shifting his public stances on Israel to the left in recent months in response to questions from progressive interviewers.
Bonus: The Free Press’ Peter Savodnik writes that Newsom “seems congenitally incapable of rising above his tribe and conceiving of the war [in Iran] as anything other than yet another opportunity for politicking, for taking a few shots, scoring some points.”
ABOUT FACE
Ruben Gallego transforms from pro-Israel moderate to face of antiwar opposition
With a series of pugnacious tweets and media appearances, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) has made himself a face of the Democratic opposition to the war in Iran, issuing one of the first comments from a U.S. lawmaker opposing the effort in the early hours of Saturday morning. Gallego’s outspoken commentary, which has repeatedly pinned blame for the operation on Israel — a notion that colleagues on both sides of the aisle have disputed — also coincide with Gallego’s endorsement of Graham Platner, the progressive Maine Senate candidate who has faced a series of scandals related to antisemitism, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
Current messaging: The high-profile moves come as Gallego, who claimed victory in Arizona in 2024 even as President Donald Trump won the state, is seen by political observers as positioning himself for a 2028 presidential campaign — and as anti-Israel policies have become a litmus test for the progressive left. “So Netanyahu now decides when we go to war? So much for America First,” Gallego said earlier this week, in response to comments by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that seemed to suggest that the timing of the war was dictated by Israel. “What the f*** happened to America First?” Gallego wrote in another post, adding that the U.S. should have left Israel to go ahead with the operation alone.
VOTED DOWN
Senate defeats resolution to halt Iran war, largely along party lines
With the U.S.-Israel operation against Iran widening, the Senate voted 53-47 on Wednesday afternoon — largely along party lines — to block a procedural vote on a war powers resolution that would have forced the immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from combat with Iran, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
What happened: Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Fetterman (D-PA) broke with their respective parties as expected, with Paul voting for and Fetterman voting against the motion, with all other lawmakers voting along party lines. The vote showcased how the Iran war has quickly become a partisan issue, despite lawmakers on both sides of the aisle expressing long-standing concerns about the threat from Iran and its malign activities and some Democrats offering a degree of positive commentary about the U.S. strikes. Though widely expected to fail, Democrats view the resolution, and a similar one up for a vote in the House tomorrow, as a critical avenue to go on record with their opposition to the Trump administration’s military offensive.
STEERING CLEAR
Lawmakers keep arm’s length from WH’s reported Kurdish insurgency push in Iran
Lawmakers are largely keeping an arm’s length from the administration’s reported discussions with Kurdish leaders in Iraq about supporting an armed offensive against the Iranian regime, as an on-the-ground force aligned with U.S. interests in the ongoing American and Israeli air campaign, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
What they’re saying: Many Republican senators indicated Wednesday that they knew little about the effort. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) told JI he couldn’t comment on the subject due to classification issues, but said generally that “the Kurds know how to fight — you don’t want to tangle with the Kurds.” Some seemed broadly supportive, while not commenting on the specifics of the reported moves. Democrats are generally skeptical of the reported plan. “I am struck by the hypocrisy of pulling the rug out from under the Kurds in Syria and then asking them to fight again for Iran. Kurds deserve better,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said.
NOT CONVINCED
Iran ‘catastrophically’ miscalculated in striking Arab countries, experts say
Leading Middle East foreign policy experts warned that Iran’s decision to expand its response to the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign by striking neighboring Arab states could prove to be a major strategic miscalculation — one that risks isolating Tehran further and potentially drawing Gulf countries to take action, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Shea reports. In the days following the launch of the campaign, Iran carried out widespread drone and missile strikes at multiple Arab nations, striking all members of the Gulf Cooperation Council — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — as well as Jordan, Syria, Iraq and Oman.
Tehran ‘encircled’: Alexander Gray, a former National Security Council chief of staff under President Donald Trump and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told JI that Iran’s decision to attack Arab countries was an “extraordinary strategic miscalculation.” Gray said, “Not only has Iran forced the region’s Arab states to openly support the U.S. and Israeli operation, but it has encircled itself far more effectively than any American diplomacy could have accomplished.” Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at Israel Policy Forum, called the action a “risky move at best.”
Ankara angle: Iran and Turkey moved to de-escalate tensions between them in the immediate aftermath of the downing of an Iranian missile over Turkey on Wednesday, but the development signals dangerous potential if the conflict heats up between them, experts told JI’s Lahav Harkov.
Worthy Reads
A New Middle East: In Semafor, Jason Greenblatt, who served as White House Middle East envoy in the first Trump administration, posits that shifting regional dynamics have created an environment for a new power structure in the Middle East. “For the first time in decades, there is a convergence of strength in the Middle East: A US president willing to confront threats directly; an Israel capable of degrading proxy networks and striking hard at Iran’s military infrastructure; and Arab leaders who have built dynamic economies focused on modernization and long-term competitiveness. Working together, they can isolate the Iranian regime diplomatically, dismantle much of its proxy infrastructure, severely degrade its military reach, and strip it of the intimidation it has used to dominate the region.” [Semafor]
Why America Went to War: In The Free Press, Haviv Rettig Gur considers the broader global geopolitics at play amid debates in the U.S. over the main drivers of the war with Iran. “There is a regional chessboard, on which Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the other Gulf states all play. Iran’s proxies, its drones and ballistic missiles, its nuclear ambitions, its funding of Hezbollah and the Houthis: All of that belongs primarily to this smaller game. … But there is a second chessboard, vastly larger, on which the United States and China are the primary players. … America went to war in Iran because Iran made itself a Chinese weapon. It didn’t need to do this, to invest so much of the administration’s political capital and of the military’s firepower, just to shore up a second-run Israeli operation.” [FreePress]
Lonely is the Head…: In The Wall Street Journal, RealEye CEO Kevin Cohen looks at Israel’s strategy of targeting the top echelon of Iranian leadership. “The logic is straightforward. Authoritarian systems recover from shocks by quickly re-establishing hierarchy. If that re-establishment becomes dangerous, decision-makers hesitate. Hesitation spreads uncertainty through the entire structure. A regime can survive sanctions. It can survive airstrikes. It can even survive the death of a supreme leader. What it struggles to survive is doubt about who holds authority next. That doubt ripples outward. Commanders delay orders until legitimacy is confirmed. Rival factions position themselves cautiously. Security services turn inward, searching for infiltration. Decision cycles lengthen. Under pressure, elongated decision cycles become fragility. This strategy depends on intelligence rather than brute force.” [WSJ]
Word on the Street
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the accomplishment of several key objectives, including that “the leader of the unit” responsible for the assassination attempt on President Donald Trump in November 2024 “has been hunted down and killed,” Jewish Insider’s Matthew Shea reports…
Seventy-five retired U.S. generals and military officials signed onto an open letter from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America supporting the U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran…
Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), the ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, and Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-RI), the top Democrat on the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Subcommittee, expressed concerns about reports that the FBI had fired staff involved in countering threats from Iran in retaliation for their involvement in investigating President Donald Trump…
First in JI: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) endorsed James Leuschen, a former staffer for Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) running for Congress in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. “Americans are getting squeezed by high grocery prices, health care, child care, rent, and utility bills,” Gottheimer said in a statement. “They want results, not rhetoric. James Leuschen knows that serving the district where he was born and raised means working with anyone to lower costs and deliver real solutions — and to stop Donald Trump’s chaos”…
Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) dropped his reelection bid hours before the deadline to file in Montana; Daines endorsed U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana Kurt Alme, who filed to run for the seat shortly after Daines withdrew from the ballot…
Far-left Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam conceded to Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) in the Democratic primary in North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District after falling short in her second bid for the seat…
Former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) is expected to step down as inspector general of the Labor Department as soon as today and announce a comeback bid for the Long Island House seat he lost to Rep. Laura Gillen (D-NY) in 2024…
A federal judge in Florida ruled that Gov. Ron DeSantis’ move to declare the Council on American-Islamic Relations a terrorist group was unconstitutional and violated the group’s First Amendment rights…
A New York State Supreme Court justice who also serves as an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s law school dismissed the punishments — including expulsions, degree revocations and suspensions — of Columbia students who participated in the takeover of the school’s Hamilton Hall in 2024 to protest Israel’s war in Gaza, determining that the school could not use sealed arrest records as evidence in disciplinary proceedings; the ruling came as a result of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s decision to drop criminal charges against the students, thereby sealing their records…
Florida International University is conducting a criminal investigation into a group chat of students associated with Miami-Dade County’s Republican Party in Florida where participants repeatedly used racial slurs, praised Nazi ideology and discussed violent acts against Black people…
Jewish leaders in Chicago are calling on Mayor Brandon Johnson to follow the recommendation of the city’s Commission on Human Relations and create an antisemitism task force…
A local Democratic candidate in Northern Virginia’s Prince William County is under fire for recently unearthed racist and antisemitic social media posts from 2012 and 2015…
The U.K. is undertaking an official review into antisemitism at British schools and universities, following a report from the Community Security Trust that showed that school-related antisemitic incidents had doubled since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks…
Poland repatriated more than 90 artifacts from Greece’s Jewish community that had been looted by the Nazis’ Rosenberg Taskforce during Germany’s occupation of the country during World War II…
The New York Times reports on how the Australian Jewish community, and specifically the Sydney Jewish Museum, is memorializing the victims of the December terror attack on a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach…
Ahmad Vahidi, a key suspect in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was named the new head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps…
The Wall Street Journal looks at how Iran’s decision to build underground “missile cities” to store munitions has backfired, with U.S. and Israeli jets poised to strike missile launchers as they emerge from the underground caverns…
Pic of the Day
A delegation of the American Jewish Committee, led by CEO Ted Deutch (center) and President Bobby Lapin, met Tuesday with Paraguayan President Santiago Peña (far left) in the group’s first-ever visit to Paraguay.
Birthdays
Actor and screenwriter, Jason Isaac Fuchs turns 40…
Particle physicist and astrophysicist, he is a professor emeritus at the University of Michigan, Carl William Akerlof turns 88… Retired university counsel for California State University, Donald A. Newman… Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, he is an associate fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Roy Gutman turns 82… Retired partner of Los Angeles law firm, Gordon, Edelstein, Krepack, Grant, Felton & Goldstein, LLP, Mark Edelstein… President of Los Angeles PR firm Robin Gerber & Associates, Robin Gerber Carnesale… Managing partner at Lerer Hippeau, a NYC-based VC firm, he co-founded Huffington Post and was the longtime chair of BuzzFeed, Kenneth B. Lerer turns 74… Political philosopher and professor at Harvard Law School, Michael Joseph Sandel turns 73… Founder and retired CEO of the DC-based News Literacy Project, Alan C. Miller… Author of Judaism: A Way of Being and former professor of computer science at Yale University, David Hillel Gelernter turns 71… Maryland state senator since 2019, Benjamin F. Kramer turns 69… Actor, screenwriter and film producer, he has been a contestant on three seasons of CBS’ “Survivor,” Jonathan Penner turns 64… Retired tennis player, she won 10 doubles tournaments, Elise Burgin turns 64… Former senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former NPR reporter, Sarah Chayes turns 64… Professor at Université de Montréal, most noted for his work on artificial neural networks and deep learning, Yoshua Bengio turns 62… Chair of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, former president and board chair of AIPAC, Betsy Berns Korn turns 58… President and founder of West End Strategy Team, Matt Dorf turns 56… Los Angeles-area builder and developer, Michael Reinis… Renewable energy executive, Michael N. Kruger… Recording music industry executive, best known for his association with the game show “Jeopardy!,” Austin David “Buzzy” Cohen turns 41… Chief communications officer at Jenner & Block, Daniel S. Schwarz… Managing director at Portage Point Partners, Steven Shenker… Disgraced and jailed founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried turns 34… Manager of operations support at TEKsystems, Andrew Leiferman… Singer and influencer, her career started with a song she performed at her own bat mitzvah, Madison Elle Beer turns 27…
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