The leftward lurch of the Democratic Party over the last year can be documented in many ways: The sudden rise of Zohran Mamdani as mayor-elect of New York City, the surge of far-left candidates running on socialist, anti-Israel platforms and the party accommodating a panoply of activist views, including anti-Israel activism, instead of drawing red lines against extremism.

But all of these developments don’t directly impact the party’s electoral fortunes, especially since the surge of left-wing activism has mainly predominated in the most-progressive parts of the country, like New York City, Seattle and safe Democratic districts.

But now there are clear signs that Democratic voters are rallying behind out-of-the-mainstream, in-your-face candidates in battleground and even GOP-leaning states and districts, developments that are putting races out of play for a party that’s hoping to ride an anti-Trump wave back into power in next year’s midterms.

Nowhere is the party’s leftward evolution clearer than in Texas, a conservative-minded state where the Senate race was potentially competitive as a result of GOP infighting. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is facing a serious primary threat from the state’s right-wing, scandal-plagued attorney general, Ken Paxton. The Democratic thinking: If Paxton won the nomination, a mainstream candidate with a track record of winning persuadable voters could at least force Republicans to spend money to defend red-state turf next year. 

To that end, Colin Allred, a former NFL player and center-left suburban lawmaker who was elected to the House in 2018 by winning over independents and some moderate Republicans, jumped into the race. Allred lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2024, but cut the GOP victory margin in the race to eight points — about half of President Donald Trump’s 14-point margin against Kamala Harris.

Allred’s brand of pragmatic politics was quickly overtaken this year by candidates drawing attention for their social media virality. Texas state Rep. James Talarico quickly emerged as an Allred alternative, offering a brand of TV-ready, populist progressivism that some party strategists thought could be a model for candidates looking to appeal to the base without insulting conservatives. Even though his voting record is liberal, the fact he went on Joe Rogan’s podcast and talked about faith drew him a niche following within the party.

But all that strategic posturing was rendered moot, after the polarizing and progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) announced her candidacy on Monday, emerging as a front-runner in the Democratic primary even as most strategists view her as a surefire loser in a general election — no matter who Republicans nominate. What’s concerning Democrats even more is that if she’s nominated, her long history of controversial comments could hurt Democrats looking to hang on for reelection in competitive districts.

In a sign of where the energy in the party lies, Allred quickly announced he was dropping out of the Senate race and instead is pursuing a comeback bid in the House. Talarico is sticking around, and while his team is optimistic they can win the primary, they acknowledge they’re starting out with a double-digit deficit against the more-prominent Crockett.

If Democrats want to entertain any hopes of winning back the Senate majority, they have to prevail in at least two GOP-held seats in conservative territory — Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska being the most realistic options. Putting Texas in play was always seen as part of that playbook, even as Democrats privately acknowledged their odds are long.

With Crockett as the nominee, not only does Texas fall out of contention, but the opportunity for Democrats to drain GOP resources in defending a red state also would become more unlikely. 

And what’s worrying Democrats is that the trend of voters rallying behind far-left candidates who aren’t electable is percolating far beyond Texas. In a Tennessee congressional special election this month, the party nominated state Rep. Aftyn Behn, a candidate nicknamed the “AOC of Tennessee,” as their standard-bearer against more-moderate alternatives in the primary. The race in a Trump-friendly district became competitive because of the GOP’s political problems, but Behn wasn’t able to exploit the opportunity because of her record.

There are many candidates emerging with backgrounds like Crockett and Behn in congressional primaries across the country. They’re the type of candidates who can win in deep-blue constituencies, but the party pays a price when they’re nominated in swing districts.  

CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere summed up the Democrats’ dilemma clearly: “This seems like a classic case of the party seeing a potential Republican disaster it could take advantage of, then laying the groundwork for the Democrats’ own disaster.”