If there’s a lesson for Democrats from the GOP’s nine-point victory in the Tennessee special election on Tuesday night, it’s that the type of left-wing politics that can play in the city is a political turnoff for persuadable suburban voters. Nominating a telegenic candidate with ideologically radical views — à la Zohran Mamdani — might not matter to many urban Gen Z voters, but it does matter everywhere else.

In the big picture, Republican Matt Van Epps’ single-digit margin of victory in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points is a sign of a strong Democratic environment heading into the midterms. Democrats should feel confident about their chances of winning back control of the House, even with increased gerrymandering. But look a little more closely at the results, and there are signs of an urban-suburban divide in the district, indicating that Democrat Aftyn Behn’s outspoken progressivism cost her badly in the affluent, conservative-minded suburb of Williamson County.

Take a look at the stark urban-suburban divide by the numbers: Behn won by 56 points in the city of Nashville, outperforming Kamala Harris’ margin in the country by a whopping 20 points. But in the Nashville suburbs, Behn barely outperformed Harris, losing Williamson County by 23 points (while Harris lost the county by 30 in 2024).

Behn was tagged as the “AOC of Tennessee” by Republicans, and she didn’t shy away from that comparison during the campaign, even inviting Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to participate at a virtual rally for the Democratic candidate. Her anti-police rhetoric, antipathy towards her home city of Nashville, along with her record of hostility against Israel all underscored she was on the far left wing of her party.

Just as New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s anti-Israel and left-wing views were toxic enough that suburban New York City Democratic lawmakers — like Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and Laura Gillen (D-NY) — spoke out against his mayoral campaign, Behn’s suburban struggles underscore that swing-district Democrats who adopt the agenda of their party’s far-left activists will face consequences at the ballot box.

At the same time, Behn’s appreciable gains in Nashville and small inroads in the heavily Republican working-class rural counties of the district indicate that the Democratic message of affordability is outranking other more-ideological issues for voters facing challenges paying their bills. With fears of rising prices amid a volatile economy, Republicans risk losing a little support from their working-class base that could prove costly in the 2026 midterms — and beyond.

All told, the results should be encouraging for Democrats, even as their overly exuberant expectations led them to invite polarizing figures like Harris and AOC to boost turnout, despite the district’s strong conservative bent. But a more moderate nominee would likely have improved the party’s standing in the suburbs, and taken better advantage of the favorable overall political environment for the opposition party. It’s another reminder that moderation is the winning formula for the party to win back power in the future.

Today’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District — covering parts of Nashville, its conservative suburbs and rural counties in middle Tennessee — was expected to be a sleepy affair, given that the district backed President Donald Trump with 60% of the vote in 2024. The state’s aggressively partisan redistricting in 2021 was intended to guarantee GOP dominance of the state’s congressional delegation, leaving just one Democratic district in Memphis.

But in a sign that Trump’s growing unpopularity is creating unforeseen problems for Republicans in conservative constituencies, the race between Republican military veteran Matt Van Epps, a former state Cabinet secretary, and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn is highly competitive. 

The fact that polls show the race tightening — with one Emerson College poll showing Van Epps in a statistical tie with Behn — is a sign of just how treacherous the political landscape has become for Republicans. Gallup’s latest survey found Trump with a 36% job approval, close to an all-time low throughout his two terms in office.  

If Republicans are nervous about holding a seat that Trump won by 22 points, there’s a growing likelihood of a blue wave that would give Democrats comfortable control of the House and an outside shot at a Senate majority. (One useful benchmark: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) carried the 7th District by just two points in her 2018 Senate race, the last election year when Democrats rode a wave to win back the House.)

The fact that Republicans are struggling to make the case that the unapologetically progressive Behn holds views out of step with the conservative district on everything from anti-police rhetoric to antipathy towards her home city of Nashville to a record of hostility against Israel is also a sign of how nationalized our politics have become. In today’s tribal world, candidate quality and specific policy views mean a lot less than the overall political mood (vibes) and the popularity of the president.

Once someone wins their party’s nomination, the penalty for holding ideologically extreme views isn’t as costly as it once was. Just look at incoming Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s showings in the November elections. Despite their substantial baggage, both candidates received a level of political legitimacy after winning their primaries.

Getting Trump voters to show up when the president isn’t on the ballot is also looking like an immense challenge that the closer-than-expected Tennessee race is showing — a dynamic that will continue past next year’s midterms. Part of it is the nature of off-year special elections, which less-engaged Republican voters aren’t likely to participate in. But some of the slippage in this race is also a sign of declining enthusiasm for the Republican Party even with more reliably GOP voters. 

The district is anchored by the affluent Nashville suburb of Williamson County, which stuck with Trump even as most other suburban areas swung towards Democrats over the last decade. 

Gallup found Trump dropping to 84% support among Republican voters, a decline of about 10 points in the last couple of months. If Republicans are slipping with their own voters, amid signs of cracks within the MAGA coalition, it would truly be a warning sign that the party’s vaunted unity under Trump could be dissipating as his final term progresses.

Odds still favor Van Epps in tonight’s special election, given the district’s solidly conservative bent. But if a progressive like Behn can make this race close — within single digits — it will serve as a flashing red light about where the political winds are heading for the White House, at least without a course correction. 

Far-left Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn, making a bid for the open 7th Congressional District seat in next week’s special election, has staked out strongly anti-Israel positions during the course of her campaign and political career.

Behn’s race in the deep-red seat, against West Point graduate and military veteran Matt Van Epps, a Republican, has long been seen as a long shot, but it has attracted significant interest and support from national Democrats hoping for a show of Democratic strength in an upset victory.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris rallied with Behn in Tennessee earlier this month, and Behn has outraised Van Epps, $1.2 million to $993,000. Former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who vacated the seat earlier this year, won in 2024 by 20 points, but polls show Van Epps leading by just 8.

Behn called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and described the war in Gaza as a genocide as early as Oct. 29, 2023, weeks after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, shortly after she was elected to the statehouse.

“I can’t sit on the sidelines, as so many of our elected officials have done the past few weeks. Their silence is deafening. Our struggles are global and inextricably linked as our liberation is bound together,” Behn said. “The United States is funding a genocide in Gaza right now, and this is a moment when we, as Tennesseans, need to care loudly for Palestinians as we do for marginalized communities in Tennessee.”

She expressed support for a House resolution led by far-left lawmakers calling for an immediate ceasefire.

“If you don’t live in Memphis, continue showing up to rallies and vigils in support of Gaza and Palestine, stand in solidarity with our Jewish allies who are, through their grief and loss, are calling for an end to the occupation, and link arms with our Muslim neighbors whose suffering is being unrecognized by those in power. None of us are free until we’re all free,” she continued.

In April 2024, Behn opposed a resolution expressing support for Israel and its right to defend itself and condemning the Oct. 7 attacks. “Israel is committing genocide, funded by the United States, and this resolution condones genocide,” Behn said in debate on the resolution.

She also visited the anti-Israel encampment at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, describing it as “well organized, grounded in liberation politics.”

“Solidarity with these students and all of those across the country standing up to state violence and calling for the end of genocide,” Behn wrote on X.

Last summer, Behn signed onto a letter calling on the Democratic National Convention to host a Palestinian speaker.

“The pain and suffering of hostage families have been rightfully highlighted and acknowledged on national platforms,” the letter reads. “We believe that it is equally important to create space for the Palestinian experience, which has been marked by decades of hardship, loss, and displacement.”

Behn also received an endorsement from Track AIPAC, an anti-Israel group that conditions its support for candidates on rejection of support from pro-Israel groups and support for declaring Palestinian statehood, among other criteria.

Her campaign has also been supported by the Democratic Socialists of America.

Behn’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.