Following the Israel-Iran ceasefire and amid questions about the extent of the damage Israel and the U.S. inflicted on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, an important piece of news flew under the radar: Azerbaijan’s national energy company, SOCAR, finalized its purchase of a 10% stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field. 

The deal and its timing amid hesitation from other countries that have considered investing in Israel, reflect a growing strategic partnership between Jerusalem and Baku — one that has garnered increasing pressure from Iran toward Azerbaijan.

The day after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced toward the end of last month, Union Energy, owned by Israeli businessman Aharon Frenkel, received the final approval from Israel’s Petroleum Council and Competition Authority to sell half its shares of the gas field in the Mediterranean, which provides 60-70% of Israel’s electricity each year, to Azerbaijan’s SOCAR. Chevron owns 25% of the Tamar field and the UAE’s Mudabala owns an 11% stake.

Jerusalem and Baku have had relations since 1992, soon after the latter’s independence from the Soviet Union, and in 2023, Azerbaijan became the first Shi’ite Muslim-majority country to open an embassy in Israel. 

Azerbaijan supplies as much as two-thirds of Israel’s oil, and Israel was the largest supplier of arms to Azerbaijan from 2016-2020. Israel continued to sell drones and missiles to Baku during its war with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karbach region in 2020, as well as satellites and a missile-interception system in 2023, during another war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

A 2009 U.S. diplomatic cable posted on Wikileaks described cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan in terms that are still apt today: The relationship between Jerusalem and Baku is “an iceberg; nine-tenths of it is below the surface,” the cable stated. 

Azerbaijan also shares a 475-mile border with Iran. The cable noted that “much like Israel, Azerbaijan perceives Iran as a major, even existential security threat, and [for] the two countries, cooperation flows from this shared recognition … Even open sources have identified an extensive relationship between the countries’ intelligence services … and it only stands to reason that this remains a major area of cooperation, which both sides naturally seek to downplay.”

Some parts of that relationship have surfaced: for example, that Israel smuggled Iran’s archive out via Azerbaijan in 2018. 

Three years ago, Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, during a time of tensions with Iran, staged a photo-op of himself stroking an Israeli attack drone, after Tehran accused Baku of allowing Israel to “establish its presence in several regions of Azerbaijan.” 

There had been persistent reports, going back over a decade, that Israel plans to use Azerbaijan’s airbases for a strike on Iran, which Baku and Jerusalem have consistently denied. 

Tehran latched onto that theory at the onset of Israel’s 12-day operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile programs. 

The day the Israeli strikes began, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry condemned “the escalation,” urging diplomacy, and a day after that, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, that Azerbaijan would not be used to attack Iran. 

When the operation ended, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said that commandos operated “on the ground,” but the military later clarified he meant in a nearby unspecified country.

On June 26, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a call with Aliyev that Baku must “investigate and verify” reports that Israeli drones entered Iran via Azerbaijan. Aliyev denied that his country’s territory was used. 

While the IDF has not publicized the details of every IAF flight to Iran, it has mentioned in its statements the long distances of flights, making it clear that Israel has the capability to fly directly to the Islamic Republic. 

Farid Shafiyev, the chairman of the Baku-sponsored think tank Center for Analysis of International Relations, dismissed the pressure from Iran.

“The latest round of accusations is probably because Iran’s air defense was decimated and not capable of defense. The people in charge, especially the military establishment, are trying to find scapegoats,” Shafiyev told Jewish Insider. “My understanding is that different factions in the Iranian establishment are trying to blame someone outside of Iran for the failures of their military system.”

Shafiyev argued that “if Azerbaijan was somehow a part of [Israel’s operation in iran] it would be known by major intelligence agencies or by the media. It’s fake news.” 

Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have had ups and downs, such as the attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran in 2023, he said, “but lately we have managed to maintain our relationship.” Pezeshkian even visited Baku last week for a regional economic conference, suggesting that the latest round of tensions between the countries may have subsided.

“If Iran were to try to exert pressure on someone, Azerbaijan would be a likely target because of that open relationship with Israel and Azerbaijan’s assets connected to the much larger global [energy] grid, supplying oil and gas to Turkey and Europe, in addition to Israel,” Gabriel Mitchell, the director of undergraduate studies at Notre Dame’s Jerusalem campus and an expert on the intersection between energy and security policy, said.

Gabriel Mitchell, the director of undergraduate studies at Notre Dame’s Jerusalem campus and an expert on the intersection between energy and security policy, told JI that “the dynamic with Iran is very serious.”

“If you consider all of the things that have happened over the 20 months of war [in Gaza],” Mitchell said, “such as [Iranian President Ebrahim] Raisi dying in a helicopter crash [that originated in] Azerbaijan, the escalation between Israel and Iran, and it is no secret the degree to which Israel and Azerbaijan have collaborated on security issues in the last decade and a half, it’s natural for Iran to start pointing fingers.”

“If Iran were to try to exert pressure on someone, Azerbaijan would be a likely target because of that open relationship with Israel and Azerbaijan’s assets connected to the much larger global [energy] grid, supplying oil and gas to Turkey and Europe, in addition to Israel,” he said.

Mitchell noted that there is a large ethnic Azeri minority in Iran, and Iran’s pressure on Azerbaijan also sends a message to that minority to curb any rebellious aspirations.

“Iranian pressure may have nothing to do with Israel and more to do with internal politics,” he added. “It’s impossible for them to flex against Israel right now and they’re not going to act against the Gulf states, so Azerbaijan is a soft middle ground that has a complicated relationship with Iran.”

Despite the ongoing backlash from Iran over ties with Israel, Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR buying a stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field indicates that Baku is not hiding or backing down from a close relationship with Jerusalem.

“SOCAR is not an independent company,” Mitchell said, “so [the deal] is signalling not only to Israel but to the region and the U.S. that Azerbaijan is interested in cooperating with Israel … and wants to be part of broader regional arrangements in a more constructive way.”

The sale of a significant stake in a gas field in the eastern Mediterranean “stands in contrast with anything else going on in the region,” Mitchell said. “Very few companies are interested in making investments in the EastMed natural gas scene right now for understandable reasons, not only because of the war, but … Egypt has economic issues with being able to fulfill payments, which has dampened interest from oil and gas companies in investing in the region.”

“That SOCAR decided to take this leap is rare, and for that reason it should be applauded. It’s only a good thing for Israel,” he added. “I wouldn’t be surprised if other companies saw it as a green light for them to invest.” 

The investment is also likely to benefit Azerbaijan as Tamar is a very reliable gas field, Mitchell said: “Azerbaijan can always say, ‘Set aside geopolitics, we’re just here for the money.’”

“When it comes to Turkey,” said Farid Shafiyev, the chairman of the Baku-sponsored think tank Center for Analysis of International Relations, “Israelis should understand that we are very close, we are military allies … Overall, I think there is room for diplomacy and Azerbaijan can play a role.” 

Azerbaijan had the confidence to invest in the Tamar field, Shafiyev said, “because we believe the conflicts in the Middle East will not cause a major crisis that will make the fields inaccessible.”

The bilateral ties have withstood the souring relationship between Azerbaijan’s strongest ally, Turkey, and Israel, and Baku has at times served as a mediator between them.

“When it comes to Turkey,” Shafiyev said, “Israelis should understand that we are very close, we are military allies … Overall, I think there is room for diplomacy and Azerbaijan can play a role.” 

The Azerbaijan-Israel relationship also remains stable despite the war in Gaza and beyond, Shafiyev said, because it rests on a decades-long foundation. He also cited the longstanding community in Azerbaijan of Mountain Jews, a population that has inhabited the eastern and northern Caucasus since the fifth century.

Roman Gurevich, the Jewish Agency’s honorary ambassador in Azerbaijan, who is well-connected in the government in Baku, said that “the deep-rooted friendship between the Jewish and Azerbaijani peoples has naturally evolved into the warm relationship Azerbaijan now shares with the State of Israel. When the brutal Hamas attack occurred on Oct. 7, [2023], ordinary citizens in Baku brought memorial candles and flowers to the Israeli Embassy in a spontaneous outpouring of solidarity.”

“Regardless of outside pressure or hostility, Azerbaijan remains committed to its friendship and strategic alliance with Israel and the Jewish world,” Gurevich added. “A strong, independent Azerbaijan that honors its friends and knows how to defend its interests is an invaluable ally for Israel.”

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran will hold a meeting next week, but said that he doesn’t think reaching a nuclear agreement with the country is necessary in the aftermath of U.S. strikes on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.

Speaking at a press conference before leaving the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump said, in response to a question asking if he was interested in restarting nuclear negotiations with Iran, “I’m not.”

“The way I look at it, they fought, the war is done,” Trump continued. “And you know, I could get a statement that they’re not going to go nuclear. We’re probably going to ask for that, but they’re not going to be doing it anyway.” He said he had asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to draw up a “little agreement for them to sign, because I think we can get them to sign it. I don’t think it’s necessary.”

Trump announced that the U.S. is “going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement, I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary. I mean, they had a war they fought. Now they’re going back to their world. I don’t care if I have an agreement or not. The only thing we’d be asking for is what we were asking for before, about ‘we want no nuclear,’ but we destroyed the nuclear. … I said ‘Iran will not have nuclear.’ Well, we blew it up. It’s blown up to kingdom come. And so I don’t feel very strongly about it.”

The president said that he “doesn’t see [Iran] getting back involved in the nuclear business anymore” but “if it does, we’re always there. It won’t be me, it’ll be somebody else, but we’re there. We’ll have to do something about it.”

Asked if he is “giving up” on his maximum-pressure campaign against Iran after he announced that China can again buy oil from Iran, contravening congressionally approved sanctions legislation, Trump said that he wanted Tehran to use the funds to rebuild. 

“No, look, they just had a war. They fought it bravely. I’m not giving up. They’re in the oil business. I mean, I could stop it if I wanted. I could sell China the oil myself. I don’t want to do that. [Iran is] going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen.”

Speaking a day after an initial Pentagon assessment was leaked stating that the U.S. and Israel did not completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program and amid concerns that some nuclear material may have been smuggled elsewhere before the strikes, Trump said, “I think all of the nuclear stuff is down there, because it’s very hard to remove. And we did it very quickly. When they heard we were coming, it was, you know, you can’t move. It’s very hard, very dangerous, actually, to move. And they also knew we were coming. So I don’t think too many people want to be down there knowing we’re coming with the bunker-busters, as we call them. … We think it’s covered with granite, concrete and steel.”

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the report was a “low assessment,” meaning “low confidence in the data in that report. Why is there low confidence? Because all of the evidence of what was just bombed by 12 30,000-pound bombs is buried under a mountain — devastated and obliterated. So if you want to make an assessment of what happened at Fordow, you better get a big shovel and go really deep, because Iran’s nuclear program is obliterated.”

Trump read out an assessment by the Israel Atomic Energy Agency, released today, that said, “The devastating U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities has set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons for many years to come. This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.”

“Which it won’t,” Trump added.

Iran is unlikely to initiate attacks against the U.S. after the American strike on Islamic Republic nuclear sites, but it will continue to launch missiles at Israel, experts told Jewish Insider on Sunday.

Hours after the U.S. bombed nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in Iran, Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JI that he doesn’t “identify a great desire — to say the least — of the Iranians to escalate with the U.S. … If they have a sharp reaction, it could drag in the Americans, who said that the matter is finished for them after they strike Iran. The U.S. has capabilities that could threaten the survival of the regime.”

Zimmt said it was likely that the Iranians would have a “symbolic reaction,” possibly targeting a U.S. military base in the region but with advance warning, similar to their response to the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

“We shouldn’t underestimate Iran’s capabilities — their missiles are a big concern — but those who think we’re on the verge of World War III and that all the American bases will burn need to understand that the central goal of the Iranian regime is to survive, so I don’t think they’ll do that in the foreseeable future,” Zimmt added.

However, he said, hours after Iran shot 25 missiles at Israel on Sunday morning, causing damage in central Israel and Haifa, “Israel is another story. I think [Iran will] continue what they’re doing in Israel.” 

Oded Ailam, a former senior official in Israel’s defense establishment and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told JI that Iran may choose not to escalate with the U.S. and instead “take out their anger on Israel with an increase in ballistic missiles,” but he said an Iranian attack on U.S. military targets in the region was still possible.

“The Iranians probably have not decided yet. It can go either way,” he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “we were in negotiations with the U.S. when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the U.S. decided to blow up that diplomacy. What conclusion would you draw?” 

Ailam said that while, in the short term, Iran was unlikely to return to the negotiating table “as a matter of national pride, it would look like a total defeat,” they would probably reenter talks farther down the line.

“I don’t know when it will happen, but I think the Iranians will very cautiously try to reach out to the Americans to negotiate and say they want to try to salvage some uranium enrichment for civilian needs,” he said.

Zimmt, however, said it was “clear that they won’t go back to negotiations.” 

“The more significant thing in the weeks and days ahead is what they do in the nuclear arena,” he said. “Do they announce that they’re quitting the [Non-Proliferation Treaty]? In the end, I think their decision is connected to the question to which we don’t have an answer: what capabilities they still have.”

The lesson that Iran likely learned from the past week and a half, Zimmt posited, is that “being on the verge of having a nuclear weapon is not enough. They need to have a nuclear weapon. I’m not sure they can do it, though.”

“If, theoretically, they can use a few hundred centrifuges that remain and a few hundred kilos of uranium and try to break out [to weapons-grade enrichment] in a hidden place, they may consider it. I doubt they’ll do it now, when Israeli planes are flying over their heads, but I assume they would wait some time and reconsider their nuclear strategy,” Zimmt explained.

Initial satellite photos published by the Associated Press showed damage to the entrances of the nuclear facility in Fordow, which is under a mountain, as well as damage to the mountain itself. David Albright, president and founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, wrote on X that the photos appear to show that the bombs were dropped on a ventilation shaft into Fordow’s underground halls. 

Ailam said that “the damage is very extensive.” According to his analysis, the attacks “neutralized” Iran’s ability to use its 400-kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity and turn it into weapons-grade (90% enriched) uranium. 

“They don’t have the capability because they don’t have the centrifuges anymore,” he said. “It’s not terminal; if we want to ensure the nuclear weapons program is totally destroyed, we need to strike the 400 kg or reach an agreement in which it is removed from Iran, but this has significantly damaged the Iranians’ ability to rapidly reach military-grade enrichment.”

U.S. intelligence agencies said that the stockpile, held at the Isfahan facility, was harmed, but Israel has not yet released a similar assessment, Ailam said.

However, Zimmt said that it is harder to know the extent of the damage to the nuclear program without more extensive satellite photos of the nuclear sites.

“The Iranians are trying to present a picture that it was not significantly damaged, but there really is not much to rely on yet other than IDF reports,” he said.

IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said on Sunday that the Israeli army “has more targets. We are prepared for the campaign to continue and must prepare for any developments.”

Ailam said that Israel “did not entirely meet [its] goals. It was mostly Israel, but with the help of the U.S., we partially removed the immediate threat from the nuclear program and the massive ballistic system and [Iran’s] ability to manufacture 300 ballistic missiles a day. That was an existential threat to Israel.” 

“But we are not at the point where we can say we removed all the threats and finished the whole bank of targets. It’s a huge country,” he added.

Zimmt said that the U.S. strike on Fordow was “the cherry on top” of Israel’s war against Iran, and that it’s time to wind down.

“Of course we can continue. We can always try to further degrade the nuclear program, but … as long as the goal was, foremost, to severely damage the nuclear program, the goal was — if not already achieved — it’s very close … I think the time has come to think of how to end this, even if it’s unilateral. If they attack, we can react, but we need to aim to finish in the coming days,” Zimmt said.

As for talk about regime change, Zimmt said it would be “impossible” through airstrikes. 

Ailam said that every major attack on Iran creates “cracks in the regime’s wall and stability, and reveals this regime to be an empty vessel.” However, he said that there are not powerful enough forces within Iran that have risen up against the regime yet. “When it will happen is hard to say, but the more [the regime] suffers blows, the closer it gets.”

An Iranian missile struck Beersheba, the largest city in southern Israel, for the second consecutive day on Friday, hours after President Donald Trump said he would decide in the next two weeks whether to join Israel in striking the Islamic Republic.

The IDF unsuccessfully attempted to intercept the surface-to-surface missile from Iran, which injured seven and left a crater at the blast site and damage to buildings in the area of Beersheba’s HiTech Park.

One of the sites reportedly damaged was Microsoft’s office in Beersheba, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed worked in “close collaboration with the Israeli military” and was “part of the system supporting aggression, not merely a civilian entity.” 

Beersheba Mayor Rubik Danilovich said, “There is extensive damage, but people acted according to Home Front Command instructions” — to enter safe rooms and shelters — “and saved themselves. Our challenge is to collect the residents and find them solutions. We prepared for this.” 

Some of the residents wounded by the blast were evacuated to Soroka Medical Center, the hospital in the city where an entire wing was destroyed by a missile a day prior. That wing was older and, unlike other areas of the hospital complex, not reinforced to protect from attacks.

Hours before the strike on Beersheba, the IDF shot down an Iranian drone near the Dead Sea. 

But in most parts of the country, Israelis had their first quiet night in a week, with no sirens interrupting the sleep of residents of central or northern Israel. 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Thursday that President Trump would take up to two weeks to decide if the U.S. will join Israel’s operation against Iran. Key components of Iran’s nuclear program are in a facility in Fordow built under a mountain, and experts said Israel does not have the capability to destroy it from the air, while the U.S. has Massive Ordinance Penetrators and B-2 heavy stealth bombers, which are thought to be have the capacity to destroy it.

“I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, ‘Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,'” she said at a White House briefing.

“He’s been very clear,” Leavitt stated. “Iran went for 60 days when he gave them that 60-day warning without coming to the table. On day 61, Israel took action against Iran. And as I just told you from the president directly, he will make a decision within two weeks.”

Israel struck the Lavizan area of Tehran late Thursday night. Earlier this week, opposition news outlet Iran International reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was underground with his family in Lavizan. 

In the early hours of Friday morning, the IDF struck Rasht, a town near the Caspian Sea in northern Iran, and the location of a technological park. The IDF sent residents an evacuation notice before the strike, saying that it plans to “attack military infrastructure” in the area.

Over 60 IAF aircraft attacked dozens of targets in Iran overnight, including “an essential component for nuclear weapons,” IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said in his daily briefing on Friday. 

Defrin said that Iran had planned a larger attack on Beersheba on Friday morning but Israel thwarted that plan, destroying three primed launchers. “Prior to launch, we detected the deployment of three launchers that were ready to fire, as seen on the screen, and we neutralized them,” Defrin said.

Israeli aircraft  struck production sites for missiles and missile components, as well as radar installations and a weapons research and development center in Tehran, the IDF Spokesperson’s office said.

Asked about reports that the IDF is running low on interceptors, Defrin explained that the more missile launchers Israel strikes in Iran, the fewer interceptors it will need in Israel.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on Thursday that Israel caused severe damage to Iran’s heavy water reactor in Khondab, used for research. IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said he did not expect any radiological consequences. 

Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site is a key target in the current operation against the Islamic Republic, Israel’s national security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, said on Tuesday.

“This operation will not conclude without a strike on the Fordow nuclear facility,” Hanegbi told Israel’s Channel 12 News.

The Fordow facility is home to thousands of centrifuges, crucial to Iran’s weapons-grade uranium enrichment program, and is located 295 feet underground beneath a mountain. Israel is thought to have neither the munitions nor the aircraft to destroy it from the air, while the U.S. does. 

Washington, however, has yet to make clear if it will take part in the offensive on Iran, though it has shot down Iranian missiles headed for Israel in the last few days. Hanegbi said that he does not believe the Trump administration has made a decision on the matter yet.

Hanegbi denied that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked the U.S. to join Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear sites: “We didn’t ask and we won’t ask. We will leave it to the Americans to make such dramatic decisions about their own security. We think only they can decide.”

“We are very careful and the prime minister is very careful not to ask for anything the Americans do not think is in their interest,” he said. 

When the IDF presented its plan to the Israeli Security Cabinet a year ago, Hanegbi said, it was for the operation against Iran to be carried out by Israel alone. He called the plan “totally blue and white.”

However, Israel did ask the U.S. for help with its defense, because it has the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system, he said.

Hanegbi said that the U.S. is not only committed to protecting Israeli lives, but to the hundreds of thousands of American citizens living in Israel.

As to reports that President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Hanegbi said they are “fake from the land of fake.”

“We don’t ask for permission from the U.S., and the U.S. doesn’t expect us to share [our plans] with them,” Hanegbi said.

Regime change is not Israel’s goal, the national security advisor said.

“I think every sane person, not only in Israel, would be happy to see this loathsome, murderous, cruel regime fall and be replaced by peace-loving people. Can we set that as a goal for ourselves? No,” Hanegbi said. 

While Hanegbi acknowledged that “the best way to remove the nuclear threat is for there to be a regime that does not want a nuclear weapon,” he said “that is not something we can attain kinetically right now.”

In addition, Hanegbi said the mullahs’ regime could fall as a result of “the process in which Iran lost its grip on the Shiite axis that was crazed in wanting to harm Israel,” but added that “it is not reasonable to think it will happen in the coming days.”

Hanegbi also expressed doubts that Iran would negotiate its surrender soon and said Israel did not receive any messages that Iran wants to hold talks to end the war.

“The Iranians are a proud people,” he said. “I don’t think they will wave the white flag at the beginning of the campaign.”

As such, he added, “we will continue with our plan. It will take time. We have many varied targets.”

Hanegbi said that Iranian gas fields and its energy sector “do not have immunity,” and that Israel struck an oil refinery used by the military within the last day.

Iran has “a strategic goal to strike our energy facilities,” he said. “They want to cause chaos in Israel. When they hit refineries in Haifa, they know what they’re doing.”