Days after launching the war against Iran last month, Israel and the U.S. began signaling that they were quickly degrading the Iranian ballistic missile threat. Two weeks into the war, the White House posted on X that “Iran’s entire ballistic missile capacity [was] functionally destroyed.” 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference last week that “Iran’s missile and drone arsenal is being massively degraded and will be destroyed.” The IDF has repeatedly sent updates over the past month about having destroyed the majority of Iran’s ballistic missiles and launchers. 

So why are missile barrages and rushing to the bomb shelters still a part of most Israelis’ daily  lives?

Sirens sounded 10 times in Israel’s center on Thursday. In the last week, about 1,000 alerts were sent out to different parts of Israel due to Iranian missiles. Israelis from Eilat to the Golan have spent many hours in shelters since the war began. Two fatalities were reported in recent days, but nearly 300 people have been injured since the beginning of this week, according to the spokesperson for Magen David Adom emergency services.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Jewish Insider that “this is a war, and wars have tides that come in and out … [they] require a certain amount of adjustment and patience. You’re not going to get everything you want in a linear fashion.”

The IDF declined to comment on the unusual number of Iranian missiles penetrating Israel this week – in contrast with the war overall, during which only about 40% of the missiles crossed into Israeli skies, according to the INSS, generally resulting in fewer sirens each day. 

Schanzer pointed to the weather as one explanation: Clouds, rain and fog in Iran make it difficult for Israeli Air Force drones, which remain in Iran’s skies at all times, to detect and destroy missile launchers before they shoot. 

But even if the skies were sunny, “the number of missiles [left in Iran] is likely below 1,000 and could be down to 500; it’s an inexact science,” Schanzer said. “The missile capability is obviously still there and has been throughout, and that doesn’t change. … They still have the ability to fire.”

There’s a term in Hebrew, which translates to “armaments economy,” that explains another aspect of what is happening. The IDF, Schanzer said, is “probably thinking about … how many missile interceptors do you burn when you know there are another two or three weeks left of Iran’s capability to launch, and there’s also [the war in Lebanon]. There is a calculus and there is an uncomfortable one.” 

A new report from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) found that 90% of the roughly 4,200 missiles and drones fired by Iran at targets across the region were intercepted, but American, Israeli and Gulf states’ air defenses have been degraded by Iran’s targeting of radar and communication links. “The war has become a stockpile race,” JINSA stated. “U.S. and Israeli offensive fire must exhaust Iran’s missiles and drones before … interceptor stocks run too low.”

Yaakov Katz, a military expert and author of While Israel Slept: How Hamas Surprised the Most Powerful Military in the Middle East, argued to JI that missile launcher destruction is the wrong way of looking at the war, meant to “create a narrative of accomplishment,” when there is still much work to be done.

Ultimately, Katz argued, people don’t care about the number of missiles that were destroyed when they’re “in the bomb shelter five, six times a day. … They’re getting hammered. It’s not a way to measure anything.”

“The IDF knows when they blow up a launcher … They know what they destroyed,” Katz said. “But the number remaining constantly changes, which proves it is BS. … In week one [the IDF] said there were 150 launchers left. In week two they said 150 left. A few days ago, they said 150 again.”

Katz pointed out that the IDF likely does not know how many missiles and launchers Iran has underground. “There is satellite footage showing [the IDF] destroyed entrances to the underground ‘missile cities,’ but they don’t know how long it takes to excavate [new entrances] or what damage there is inside.”

While Katz said that he doesn’t “diminish from the value of taking a threat, degrading it and having more time to live in a place of security,” he does not view that as a victory, because the threat will return. He pointed to how rapidly Iran was able to produce new ballistic missiles after last year’s 12-day war: “They’re going to rebuild everything.” 

“Just saying they destroyed 70-80% of missile launchers … If that’s your measure of success, you’re basically confirming there will be another war in the future,” he added.

“This war has three potential victories,” Katz said, listing regime change, removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and, lastly, reaching “a deal that provides for any or all of those, plus restrictions on the development and range of ballistic missiles.”

Katz also noted that the United Arab Emirates is relaying a similar message — that degrading Iranian missiles is not enough. He cited a recent Fox News appearance by Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s minister of state at the foreign ministry, and an op-ed by Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., who wrote in The Wall Street Journal, “We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes.”

Schanzer agreed that the number of missiles and launchers destroyed is “a tactical measure … you’re attacking the arrow and not the archer.” However, he added: “You can criticize it all you want, but if that’s all you’ve got, then you’re doing all you can.”

“The bigger goal is regime change, but there’s no handbook for that either,” he said. “I still think America and Israel have the advantage. There is zero air defense in Iran, the leadership is absolutely decimated, the arsenal is smaller than it was, and the regime is under enormous strain. That is the most important measure to look at right now. It doesn’t mean there aren’t challenges [such as] the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks.”