Former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) has emerged as an early front-runner in the Illinois 8th Congressional District primary, though she’s facing off against a number of anti-Israel candidates.

Bean, who maintained a pro-Israel record in office, is running as a relative moderate. One of her leading challengers is likely to be Junaid Ahmed, who supports an arms embargo and end to all military aid to Israel, making a second run for the seat, with another candidate who has expressed support for policies cutting off aid to Israel, Yasmin Bankole, also showing some early strength in polling.

“Coming into it, you’d say Melissa would probably be the one to beat. The question is, has the party changed a lot, especially in primaries, since she was in the House last?” Pete Giangreco, a longtime Chicago-based Democratic political strategist, told Jewish Insider. “Has the party moved — or at least Democratic primary voters, have they moved to the left more than where Melissa is, is sort of an open question.”

Internal polling by the Bean campaign last September showed her with a narrow lead but only polling at 10%, followed by Ahmed at 8%, Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison at 5% and Bankole, a Hanover Park trustee, at 3%, with more than two-thirds of respondents undecided.

A late November poll by the campaign of military veteran and attorney Dan Tully found Bean leading at 20%, followed by Morrison at 10%, Bankole at 7% and Ahmed at 5%, with 46% undecided.

Businessman Neil Khot, who is self-funding his campaign, is also a wild card assuming he spends enough money to build name recognition ahead of the primary campaign.

The seat, in Chicago’s western suburbs, is currently held by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is running for the Senate.

Frank Calabrese, a Chicago political analyst, said he anticipates Bean will have a significant fundraising advantage in the next filing period, given her history in Congress and her post-congressional career as a banker. He named Bankole, Morrison and Ahmed as other top Democratic candidates.

Ahmed was endorsed last June by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), and has also been backed by Reps. Delia Ramirez (D-IL) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Justice Democrats, Track AIPAC and IfNotNow Chicago.

He has a degree of name recognition and an established fundraising base — particularly among progressive and Arab-American voters — from an unsuccessful run for the same seat in 2022, a political strategist involved in the race said. The strategist rated him as Bean’s strongest competitor.

As of the end of September, Ahmed led the race in fundraising, with $838,000, fueled by small-dollar donations from Arab-Americans.

Bean, who did not join the race until mid-September, raised $530,000 in her first few weeks in the race. Morrison raised $382,000 and Bankole $293,000 during the last fundraising quarter.

Khot was the first candidate to go on air with television advertisements, which Giangreco said could give him early momentum. 

“I think you’d have to say Melissa is the favorite here, but she’s got to raise money and make her pitch, and I imagine that she’ll be on the air soon,” Giangreco said. “She got a little bit of a late start, so I think that’s probably why she’s not quite there yet on resources, and it’ll be interesting to see what the early spending for Neil Khot does.”

Morrison has a record as a local official and backing from various local leaders, as well as Reps. Eric Sorensen (D-IL), Mike Quigley (D-IL), Becca Balint (D-VT), Mark Takano (D-CA), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) and Equality PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Equality Caucus, which supports LGBTQ+ candidates.

Bankole is backed by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), but Giangreco was skeptical that she’ll be able to put together a winning coalition.

“There are a number of candidates who are trying to kind of reinvent the Raja coalition. And you do have a large South Asian population there,” he said. “How many will vote in a Democratic  primary is an open question, and there are multiple candidates who are going after Raja’s base, so I don’t know if that feels like a winning strategy.”

The strategist involved in the race noted that it has received significantly less attention than several of the other open-seat races in the Chicago area. The strategist characterized Bean and Ahmed as the candidates to beat at this point.

Bean, who served from 2005-2011 is likely to highlight her work in Congress, particularly her support for the Affordable Care Act, as she works to build up support. But the strategist said that Bean could be vulnerable, among the liberal base, to attacks on her as a banker, linking her to Wall Street.

They predicted that Ahmed and his backers will work to rally support from progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and to turn out support among the socialist-leaning left.

Giangreco was more skeptical of Ahmed’s chances running on a progressive platform.

“Unlike [in Illinois’s 9th Congressional District] and [5th Congressional District], that are far more progressive, or even [the 2nd Congressional District] … there isn’t a liberal bastion like those other places have, where there’s a well-grounded progressive round structure,” Giangreco said. “It doesn’t mean there aren’t progressive voters. It’s just less part of the culture of the Democratic primary electorate there.”

Though the Tully campaign polling put Ahmed behind other progressive candidates in the race, the strategist said that Ahmed’s fundraising has been strong and should be sufficient to help him pull ahead into the top tier of the race, and he will be best positioned to capture progressive left voters.

Other candidates currently polling lower, like Tully — who raised $630,000 as of the end of the previous quarter — are hoping that a heated battle between some of those more prominent candidates will push voters away and give them a chance to capture a share of the voters.

“Dan Tully is a really interesting candidate, veteran and all that, but — not to put everybody into a box — but veterans usually have a tough time raising primary money, they actually tend not to do as well in primaries,” Giangreco said.