Any potential agreements between Jerusalem, Beirut and Washington will ultimately hinge on whether Hezbollah can be fully disarmed
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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2nd-R), accompanied by U.S. State Department Counselor Michael Needham (C), and U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa (R), speaks as they begin working-level peace talks with Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter at the U.S. State Department on April 14, 2026 in Washington, DC.
The first round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon has been received positively by diplomats, pro-Israel lawmakers and experts, who see it as a sign of Hezbollah’s waning influence in Lebanon. But despite the optimism surrounding the discussions, experts caution that disarming the terrorist group remains a daunting obstacle that stands in the way of any meaningful change — one that would require a significant shift from the Lebanese government and its armed forces.
On Tuesday, Israeli and Lebanese leadership convened at the State Department in Washington for the highest-level direct discussions in more than 30 years, aiming to outline a framework for “lasting peace” and a “permanent end” to Hezbollah’s influence, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) told Jewish Insider that “it is great” that talks are taking place, expressing hope that “the Lebanese government, the United States and the Israeli government make a deal, and collectively, they push Hezbollah out.”
“That way the Lebanese people can be freed from the Iranian extremism that they have in their country,” Moskowitz said. “The Lebanese people are being held captive by the Iranian government because of Hezbollah. It’s obviously good for the United States, it’s good for Israel, but more importantly, I think it’s good for the people of Lebanon. I think disarming Hezbollah is obviously key to all this.”
Moskowitz added that while the Lebanese government appears to want to disarm Hezbollah, “they probably need help.”
“It’s not going to happen overnight, but I think it’s historic, and this is what the entire region wants,” he said. “This is what the Gulf states want. Everybody wants to come out of the extremism and the terrorism that Iran is trying to spread in the region.”
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) similarly told JI that Hezbollah disarmament is an important factor in talks.
“Why would you have talks if they [Hezbollah] are not going to disarm?” Scott said. “I’m not the prime minister of Israel but my condition would be that Hezbollah has got to disarm.”
Scott dismissed the notion that the Lebanese government and the Lebanese Armed Forces have not done enough to disarm the group, stating that the main problem is “not caused by Lebanon or by the military of Lebanon, it’s caused by Hezbollah.”
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) said that disarming Hezbollah should be a “red line” for Israel in talks. He added that Israel “needs a buffer zone so Hezbollah can’t continue to rain down terror on Israelis.”
“Hezbollah has historically been the best trained, best equipped opponents to Israel,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) said. “Israel’s done a great job with them over the last two years, but they’re hardcore fervent believers in destroying Israel.”
Experts similarly described the talks as a meaningful development. John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, called the discussions an “important breakthrough” and a sign of Hezbollah’s diminishing influence.
“Everyone should welcome the opening of a direct political dialogue between Israel and Lebanon,” Hannah said. “The fact that [the talks are] occurring at all is an important sign of Hezbollah’s declining hegemony over the Lebanese state.”
Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described the talks as a “win-win-win” in a social media post, adding that Hezbollah emerged as a “big loser.”
“Today is a day to celebrate — we all saw a glimpse of what is possible after so much violence and conflict,” Satloff wrote on Tuesday. “That is a very good thing.”
Still, experts say disarming Hezbollah, which parties agree is necessary for any lasting piece, remains highly difficult and uncertain.
Even before Tuesday’s opening round of discussions, Hezbollah senior member Wafiq Safa said Hezbollah is “not bound” by any deals reached between Israel, Lebanon and the United States.
“It’s hard to be an optimist when it comes to the core question of Hezbollah’s disarmament,” Hannah said. “Even after all that’s been done over the past few years to weaken the group and its Iranian sponsors — including the loss of its legitimacy in the eyes of a majority of Lebanese — it’s not at all apparent that the raw balance of forces inside Lebanon has shifted sufficiently to favor Hezbollah’s near-term demise.”
Hannah described disarming Hezbollah as “worth trying,” but ultimately a “long shot.”
“Since the war against Iran broke out on Feb. 28, Hezbollah has shown through its sustained attacks on Israel that, while much diminished, its forces retain far more significant capabilities than many believed,” he said. “And in the wake of its battle against Israel, Hezbollah is making clear that if push comes to shove, it’s prepared to burn down the state before surrendering its weapons.”
Blaise Misztal, JINSA’s vice president for policy, said the task cannot be accomplished through Israeli military action alone and will ultimately depend on whether Lebanon and the LAF are willing to act.
“[Disarming Hezbollah] can only be fully done by a strong and committed Lebanese government,” Misztal said. “Israel can secure southern Lebanon with ground operations and strike Hezbollah sites in Beirut or the Bekaa Valley, but that will merely distance and degrade the threat, never fully remove it.”
“The question is whether the Lebanese government is, or can be convinced to be, strong and committed enough to take on the task of asserting its control over its own territory,” he added. “Thus far, it has failed to demonstrate either the political will or military capability to do so.”
Hannah similarly noted that “Israel is rightly unwilling to pay the necessary cost in blood, treasure and diplomatic opprobrium” required to fully dismantle Hezbollah, leaving the responsibility to Lebanon and its armed forces.
“The factor that has truly held Lebanon back from disarming Hezbollah has been Hezbollah’s retention of, as far as we can tell, overwhelming support among Lebanese Shiites,” David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said. “Having retained that popular support, it can deter the government from pursuing forcible disarmament by dangling the threat of civil war.”
But experts weren’t optimistic that the Lebanese government and LAF are capable — or willing — to take on that role. Hannah said Lebanon’s military “doesn’t appear to have the stomach to truly confront Hezbollah and dismantle the group’s armed wing,” noting that it has already “failed” to disarm the group in southern Lebanon, “much less the rest of the country.”
“It seems even less likely than before the Iran war that the LAF would now be willing to take on the risk of massively confronting Hezbollah,” he said, “in spite of the misery Hezbollah’s unilateral decision to enter the conflict on Iran’s behalf is now inflicting on the rest of Lebanon.”
David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also said Beirut “ultimately holds the key” to resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament. He said that while Lebanon has taken “immense and commendable” steps in “proscribing Hezbollah’s military activities,” the country’s “unwillingness to act against Hezbollah has been missing from the equation” and has “allowed the group to regenerate in the past.”
He added that Hezbollah still “retains enough military strength to make disarmament daunting” for Lebanese forces and the LAF, and that the group continues to wield significant political power.
“The factor that has truly held Lebanon back from disarming Hezbollah has been Hezbollah’s retention of, as far as we can tell, overwhelming support among Lebanese Shiites,” Daoud said. “Having retained that popular support, it can deter the government from pursuing forcible disarmament by dangling the threat of civil war.”
Daoud also raised concerns about Lebanon’s intentions in negotiations, arguing that Beirut may not truly be seeking meaningful change.
“A good test will be the extent to which the LAF fulfills the Lebanese government’s order from early April to put all of Beirut under its full control,” John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said. “Will the LAF truly confront and disarm Hezbollah in the capital or simply repeat the phony disarmament it claimed to have completed in the south?”
“Lebanon is seeking to use the negotiations to return to the status quo, and is willing to ‘pay the price’ of a joint photograph with an Israeli ambassador to achieve that objective,” he said. “This is because the situation in Lebanon is indeed dire — economic collapse compounded by war, the direct impact of the war itself and the emergence of sectarian tensions that could boil over into full-on conflict.”
If those dynamics remain unchanged, he warned that Hezbollah could indefinitely delay disarmament and eventually rebuild its strength.
“A good test will be the extent to which the LAF fulfills the Lebanese government’s order from early April to put all of Beirut under its full control,” Hannah said. “Will the LAF truly confront and disarm Hezbollah in the capital or simply repeat the phony disarmament it claimed to have completed in the south?”
Satloff said the challenge will ultimately require translating diplomacy into “practical steps,” including a shift in how the Lebanese military approaches disarmament.
“While some of this can happen in the negotiating room when the parties meet again, nothing can substitute for strong measures by the Lebanese state to isolate, weaken, delegitimize and disarm Hezbollah while promoting the idea of peace,” he said.
He suggested that turning Beirut into a “true weapons-free zone” is necessary “but not sufficient,” pointing to additional steps such as removing Hezbollah officials from government, expelling Iranian operatives from the country and shutting down the group’s financial and institutional networks.
The order leaves out scrutiny of Qatar and Turkey — a strategy that experts say reflects both legal realities and geopolitical constraints
Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images
US President Donald Trump during a breakfast with Senate Republicans in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025.
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order directing a review of Muslim Brotherhood chapters for potential terrorism designations is limited in scope, and leaves out scrutiny of Qatar and Turkey — a strategy that experts say reflects both legal realities and geopolitical constraints.
The order, which was signed on Nov. 24, directs Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to identify which branches of the Muslim Brotherhood — with a focus on chapters in Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt — should be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and which should be deemed Specially Designated Global Terrorists.
Rather than apply a terrorist designation to the entire Muslim Brotherhood as a whole, Trump’s executive order first looks at individual branches. This strategy is echoed in a Senate bill, sponsored by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), which requires an assessment of every branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in an effort to designate the organization for its involvement.
The House version of the legislation was modified in committee last week and now more closely resembles the Trump executive order.
Michael Jacobson, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the approach “makes sense,” adding that a “one-size-fits-all” designation would be unproductive. He also noted that it will allow the administration to more effectively pursue chapters of the organization.
“The bottom-up approach will allow the administration to proceed in a more strategic and calculated fashion,” said Jacobson. “Targeting individual chapters and entities could also open up additional avenues for investigation and action. Once individual branches are designated, the Treasury could then use its authorities to sanction those supporting these branches. I believe that this approach is also more likely to gain support from other governments.”
This same sentiment was echoed by Cruz, who called the “bottom-up” approach the “correct and sustainable strategy.”
“That strategy is built into both the president’s executive order, which was a bold and critical breakthrough in advancing American national security, and my bipartisan legislation,” Cruz told Jewish Insider. “It’s the consensus strategy, and it’s the right one.”
David Adesnik, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JI that while a single designation done in “one fell swoop” might be appealing, it faces legal and factual challenges.
“The administration was rightly concerned that a judge could overturn a designation of the entire organization if he or she assessed that it didn’t meet the legal thresholds. This would have serious consequences in several respects,” said Michael Jacobson, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If a judge ruled against a Muslim Brotherhood ban, it would be interpreted by some as a signal that the MB is not a terrorist organization, end of story — also a message the administration was likely eager to avoid.”
“This is not a single unified organization,” said Adesnik. “There’s no headquarters, no address, no person who is the head. It’s very hard to make a terror designation if you’re not exactly sure who you’re designating.”
Jacobson said the administration also looked to avoid a blanket designation out of concern that any legal challenges that followed could hurt efforts to reign in the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The administration was rightly concerned that a judge could overturn a designation of the entire organization if he or she assessed that it didn’t meet the legal thresholds. This would have serious consequences in several respects,” said Jacobson. “If a judge ruled against a Muslim Brotherhood ban, it would be interpreted by some as a signal that the MB is not a terrorist organization, end of story — also a message the administration was likely eager to avoid.”
Some critics of the executive order, including far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who is a confidant of the president, have expressed frustration over the administration’s decision not to name Qatar and Turkey in the order.
“The Muslim Brotherhood designation signed by President Trump today doesn’t have any teeth,” Loomer posted on X on Nov. 24. “This designation is probably the weakest designation of the Muslim Brotherhood we could have ever received, as it doesn’t even apply to Qatar and Turkey.”
Both Qatar and Turkey have strengthened ties with the United States during Trump’s second term, however the two countries are also significant supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and have been known to provide sanctuary for their members.
“Claiming to get tough on the Muslim Brotherhood without a serious strategy to clamp down on the support provided by the movement’s most important state sponsors in Qatar and Turkey is not a serious policy,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “Out of consideration for America’s longstanding partnerships with both countries and President Trump’s particular affinity for their leaders, one hopes that there is a plan to bring real pressure to bear on both Doha and Ankara in private to cease and desist their wide-ranging support for MB affiliates across the Middle East and globally.”
But while Qatar and Turkey’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood are problematic, experts said they were not included because they do not currently have chapters of the organization in their countries, which the executive order focuses on.
“If we’re targeting chapters of the Brotherhood, there are no Brotherhood chapters in those countries,” said Adesnik. “So the real question is, how do you deal with what are effectively state sponsors of the Brotherhood? And does that state sponsorship cross the line into terrorism or sponsorship of terrorism?”
The Senate bill also does not address how Turkey and Qatar would be targeted as state sponsors of the organization.
However, experts and legislators remain wary of the threat posed by the two nations and have expressed that plans to root out the Muslim Brotherhood should account for Turkey and Qatar.
“Claiming to get tough on the Muslim Brotherhood without a serious strategy to clamp down on the support provided by the movement’s most important state sponsors in Qatar and Turkey is not a serious policy,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “Out of consideration for America’s longstanding partnerships with both countries and President Trump’s particular affinity for their leaders, one hopes that there is a plan to bring real pressure to bear on both Doha and Ankara in private to cease and desist their wide-ranging support for MB affiliates across the Middle East and globally.”
With the current executive order, the White House is seeking to first designate branches in countries that experts said are involved in violence from within the country. This will also likely include entities that finance other Foreign Terrorist Organizations, according to Jacobson.
In Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt, threats connected to the Muslim Brotherhood have become national issues of concern.
“The Islamic Group [Muslim Brotherhood chapter in Lebanon] clearly built up the ability to carry out attacks against Israel and cooperated very openly with Hezbollah,” said David Adesnik, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Authorities there really aren’t doing anything about it, partly because they lack power and have other issues to address. So it’s a pretty fair point.”
In April 2025, Jordanian authorities arrested 16 individuals and thwarted a plot that was to involve rocket and drone attacks inside the country. The suspects were linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the government’s largest opposition group. Following the arrests, the Jordanian government banned the group entirely.
Adesnik said that while Jordan has initiated a “thorough crackdown” to address the problem, it is notable that there was “clearly a branch that had migrated toward planning for terrorism.”
In Lebanon, he called the Muslim Brotherhood a “persistent issue.”
“The Islamic Group [Muslim Brotherhood chapter in Lebanon] pretty openly built up a capability to carry out attacks against Israel and cooperated very clearly and openly with Hezbollah,” said Adesnik. “Authorities there really aren’t doing anything about it, in part because they don’t have a lot of power and they have a lot of other problems to deal with. So it’s a pretty reasonable case.”
Adesnik called the administration’s targeting of Egypt the “thorniest case from a definitional perspective.” He noted that while Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi’s regime in Cairo has spent more than a decade cracking down on the Brotherhood “aggressively,” concerns still remain over the presence of branches such as Harakat Sawa’d Misr, also known as Hasm, which was already designated by the U.S. as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Entity in 2018.
“The question is just what’s left of the Brotherhood there?” said Adesnik. “Is it doing enough to merit a designation?”
Plus, British Jews fear for future in U.K.
(Photo by Nathan Howard - Pool/Getty Images)
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrives at Ben Gurion airport on October 21, 2025 in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Good Tuesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Israel, which began today, and talk to Jewish communal leaders in the U.K. about security concerns following the deadly Yom Kippur attack on a Manchester synagogue. We report on an antisemitic comment made at a campaign event by New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s Muslim affairs advisor, and cover the Council on American-Islamic Relations’ lawsuit against Northwestern University over the school’s requirement that students watch an antisemitism training video. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Sheila Katz, Jodi Kantor and James Snyder.
Today’s Daily Kickoff was curated by Jewish Insider Executive Editor Melissa Weiss and Israel Editor Tamara Zieve with assists from Matthew Kassel and Danielle Cohen-Kanik. Have a tip? Email us here.
What We’re Watching
- Vice President JD Vance is in Israel today, where he joins White House Senior Advisor Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who arrived earlier this week. More below.
- In Washington this afternoon, the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control is holding a hearing on Hezbollah’s drug trafficking networks in Latin America. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Matthew Levitt, the Atlantic Council’s Amb. Nathan Sales, the Hudson Institute’s Marshall Billingslea and former FBI official Robert Clifford are slated to testify.
- In New York, Hillel International CEO Adam Lehman will sit in conversation with 92NY’s Rabbi David Ingber to discuss Judaism and Jewish life on college campuses.
What You Should Know
A QUICK WORD WITH JI’S MATTHEW KASSEL
In previous mayoral elections in New York City, a candidate’s meeting with a controversial imam who was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing — and who has stridently opposed homosexuality and condemned America as “filthy” and “sick,” among other extreme remarks — might be expected to meaningfully dent support for his campaign.
But even as Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, has drawn criticism over his recent meeting with Siraj Wahhaj, a Brooklyn imam who leads Masjid at-Taqwa in Bedford-Stuyvesant, political experts say that such backlash is unlikely to influence the outcome of the Nov. 4 election.
That Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist and Queens state assemblyman, appears poised to withstand scrutiny over his relationship with Wahhaj, which he has defended, underscores how dramatically the political environment has changed in New York City — where the emotional resonance of the 9/11 terror attacks have long played a central role in campaigns and elections.
“Dead cops and firefighters don’t seem to matter much these days,” Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant who is leading an anti-Mamdani super PAC, told Jewish Insider on Monday. “I think it’s a generational question,” he added, noting that “the people who are voting for” Mamdani “weren’t even born on Sept. 11.”
While he said that Mamdani’s meeting “isn’t helpful” and could ultimately push some voters concerned about public safety to instead back one of his rivals — including the Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa, or former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running on an independent line — “the question is whether they can generate a vote,” according to Sheinkopf.
“That’s not clear yet,” he explained, saying the controversy could be “buried under” Mamdani’s continued focus on affordability, which helped drive his upset over Cuomo in the Democratic primary in June.
Both Cuomo and Sliwa have attacked Mamdani for the meeting, with the former governor zeroing in on Wahhaj’s history of homophobic comments — including remarks in which the imam called homosexuality “a disease.”
Mamdani, who would be the first Muslim mayor of New York City if elected, has dismissed criticism of his Friday meeting with Wahhaj — whom he praised as “one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century.”
TRIP TALK
Vice President JD Vance landed in Israel on Tuesday with the charge to lead efforts to stabilize the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and assist in the implementation of the second phase of President Donald Trump’s peace deal, Jewish Insider’s Washington reporter Matthew Shea reports. The vice president will now step into the conflict, visiting Israel at an important juncture as the Trump administration looks to avoid another breakdown into renewed hostilities and ensure full compliance with the deal. “Hamas is going to fire on Israel. Israel’s going to have to respond, of course. There are going to be moments where you have people within Gaza that you’re [not] quite sure what they’re actually doing. But we think it has the best chance for sustainable peace,” Vance told reporters on Sunday, referring to the peace proposal.
Continuous engagement: The decision to dispatch Vance to Israel is a sign of the Trump administration’s continued engagement in the Middle East after securing the hostage-release deal, according to experts. “We are in a moment of really intense American engagement and influence that have got us to a stage one that no analyst a month ago would have told you was possible, and so there is a moment of opportunity here,” said John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “In order to be sustained, it’s a ceasefire and peace process that is going to require intense and continuous U.S. engagement at the most senior levels.”













































































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