A popular “domino effect” meme circulates online every few months, linking slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s decision to launch the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks — the smallest domino — to a series of major geopolitical shifts across the Middle East. While both simplified and exaggerated, the meme underscores the dramatic reshaping of Middle Eastern power dynamics.

The next domino may be the decades-long fraught relationship between Israel and Lebanon, as Iran’s ironclad grip over the region loosens and its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, finds itself increasingly weakened and marginalized in Lebanon, where it has for decades played a key role in the country’s politics and military. 

Those current geopolitical conditions — Iran at its weakest point in decades, successive levels of Hezbollah leadership removed from power through Israeli military actions, the degradation of Hamas and a new government in Syria that has separated itself from Tehran — laid the groundwork for yesterday’s State Department summit, convened by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, between Israel and Lebanon.

The State Department meeting between the ambassadors from Lebanon and Israel took place as the U.S. navigates stalled talks and a tenuous ceasefire with Iran — which was initially on unstable ground as Iran demanded that Israel cease its targeting of Hezbollah as part of the ceasefire. 

A senior Israeli official told Jewish Insider on Wednesday that Iran’s effort to link the two conflicts was “a strategic trap with long-term ramifications.”

“There was real pressure to link the Lebanon front to the Iran ceasefire,” the official said. If President Donald Trump had acquiesced to the Iranian demand to link the two conflicts, the official continued, “We would not be on the path to peace that we’re on now. Keeping the arenas separate ultimately means that the fate of Lebanon is no longer dictated by Iran.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — now mounting a comeback bid ahead of elections later this year — has often used the “Octopus Doctrine” to describe a security approach to tackling Iran’s decades-long control over the region. Cut off the head of the octopus — Tehran — and the tentacles will be easier to tackle, the logic goes. 

Israel, having severed the metaphorical octopus’ head on the opening day of the recent war with Iran, is now continuing its work to degrade and dismantle Iranian proxies — a process that began two and a half years ago, triggered by the Oct. 7 attacks.

“One of the most significant developments in the Middle East since Oct. 7 has been the steady dismantling of that axis — separating arenas that sought to bind their fates together,” the senior Israeli official said. 

The talks are not without risk. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called off a planned trip to the U.S. over the weekend out of concerns of potential domestic unrest — amid the still very real risk that Hezbollah, albeit weakened, could attempt a power grab in his absence. Recall that in 2005, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri was killed in a car bombing, with a Hezbollah operative convicted by a U.N. tribunal in absentia for the assassination.

The talks were hailed by Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter, who said that the parties “discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation” and “are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah.”

Rubio delivered a measured assessment of the goals of yesterday’s talks: “This is about bringing a permanent end to 20 or 30 years of Hezbollah’s influence in this part of the world,” he said at a roundtable ahead of the meeting. “This will take time, but we believe it is worth this endeavor.”

Beirut has in recent years — and with varying degrees of seriousness and success — worked to disentangle itself from Iran and Hezbollah. Now, the U.S.-Israeli military pressure on Iran, combined with the Trump administration’s zest for dealmaking and the degradation of Hezbollah, could create the right environment to bring peace to the Mediterranean Riviera.

A new report by the American Jewish Committee, released on Friday, found that 73% of American Jews saw or heard antisemitism online in the last year and 21% said that the antisemitism they witnessed made them feel physically threatened.

Top officials at the group say that this pervasive antisemitism online is the fundamental root of the current wave of antisemitic sentiment society-wide, including violent extremist attacks on Jewish communities in the U.S. and globally, and that protecting the Jewish community requires making real progress in tackling that problem.

According to the group’s CEO, Ted Deutch, the report is the first comprehensive survey-based tracking of American Jews’ experiences with and opinions on social media, “and the results are alarming.”

Deutch told Jewish Insider in an interview on Thursday that the report further finds that those pushing antisemitic content have found an “alarming number of ways” to avoid rules on various platforms to safeguard against hate.

Deutch, a longtime former House lawmaker, expressed frustration at the continued lack of action from Congress on antisemitism generally, amid a series of violent attacks across the country and the globe, drawing some parallels between that dynamic and his own struggles in the House to pass legislation in response to school shootings, as such events repeated themselves.

“If we stop it from spreading online, we’ve taken a dramatic step to preventing someone from showing up in D.C., killing two people, and saying, ‘I did it for Gaza,’ or someone in Colorado showing up, throwing Molotov cocktails with people at a march for the hostages, and killing someone there, and saying, ‘I did it for Palestine,’” Deutch said. “This needs urgent attention. It’s not getting it and it’s not acceptable.”

Speaking out against antisemitism is important, he said, “but you know what? We know where this starts, we know how it spreads. We have to do something to stop it there, so that we can stop the violence.”

He said that he’s concerned that Congress is becoming desensitized to the string of attacks on the Jewish community and isn’t responding with the action it warrants.

“The ability for Congress and policymakers around the country to simply move on, from one attack to another, the normalization of the antisemitic rhetoric that’s being used, the willingness to simply chalk this up to one extreme or another … You wind up accepting it. We cannot accept it,” Deutch said. “That sense of urgency does not exist. I don’t understand it.”

“I get it that this is a really hard time for Congress to legislate,” Deutch continued. “I understand that there are very strong feelings about everything that happens in politics, but I cannot understand how on an issue like this, when the data is clear and the impact of what’s happening is clear, that we can allow week to week, more attacks on synagogues, more attacks on schools.”

He said that ultimately, true security for the Jewish community won’t come through increasingly stringent physical security measures, but through a broader shift, “and that starts with what’s happening online” because the attacks across the country and the world “aren’t isolated incidents.” 

He said that he wants Congress, President Donald Trump and the American people to understand that, and to collectively work to tone down antisemitic rhetoric online and decrease its spread.

The report, compiled in collaboration with Cyberwell, an Israeli nonprofit aimed at fighting antisemitism online, offers a variety of recommendations for technology companies and platforms to respond to antisemitism on their services.

“The No. 1 reason that we have the antisemitism levels that we do today in the United States and around the world is because of the digital space,” Holly Huffnagle, AJC’s director of antisemitism policy, said. “We can’t just keep sitting by and observing and collecting data. We actually need to do something about this, and this is how we think is the best way to go forward in closing some of those gaps around enforcement on the platforms.”

The report found that, across social media platforms, only around one-third of American Jews report antisemitic content they see, in many cases feeling that doing so will be futile. Deutch said he found that data point the most concerning.

“If the Jewish community is essentially throwing up its hands … then that says an awful lot about them, and our larger population as a whole,” Deutch said. He argued it sends the conclusion to the population at large that “the battle is lost. We can’t afford that. This isn’t a battle that is lost. This is an ongoing effort that we all have to be a part of.”

Huffnagle said that the report, based in part on data from AJC’s annual poll of the Jewish community’s experience of antisemitism, is proof of what many in the Jewish community have long seen and felt — that antisemitism is rampant online — and shows that “they’re not alone.” 

The report offers a set of nine recommendations for tech companies: tightening enforcement mechanisms against those who support terrorism and antisemitic attacks; clarifying and strengthening policies on antisemitism; addressing coded antisemitism through emojis and euphemisms; consistently applying visibility restrictions on antisemitic content, ensuring that such measures are applied early and improving tools to prevent targeted harassment; ensuring that hateful content is not monetized or amplified and that users can’t evade restrictions; detecting and preventing AI-created and -driven antisemitic content; implementing better tools to prevent coordinated activity to boost antisemitic content; creating better reporting systems for antisemitism; and providing greater transparency and data access.

Legislatively, AJC is supporting the Platform Accountability and Transparency Act, which would require social media companies to share more data with the public. Deutch said that lawmakers are “flying blind” when it comes to antisemitism on social media platforms, lacking the data internal to the platforms that they and civil society need to address the problem.

“The transparency … can help drive accountability and real policy change and real changes to community standards, so that we don’t have to see these kinds of data points repeat year after year,” Deutch said.

“We have to approach this with greater urgency,” he continued. “Congress can’t simply allow itself to fall into the same old argument about how to approach this, and should we be talking about liability or not, whether this is free speech or it’s not free speech. That’s not what this is about. This is about real threats to the Jewish community and the ability that social media companies have — and the urgent need that we all have — for them to act, to keep the Jewish community and, in turn, to keep society safe.”

Huffnagle said she hopes the report can help identify other “creative” solutions and approaches to addressing antisemitism, particularly outside of government and apart from longstanding debates in Congress like reforming liability protections for social media platforms under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act — an idea that Jewish groups have discussed for years but hasn’t seen movement on legislatively.

“I think we need to be creative,” she said. “Just because something’s being stalled doesn’t mean there can’t be movement elsewhere.”

Huffnagle said AJC is working with various platforms to tailor the group’s approach to the specific issues on those platforms — having developed a greater understanding of the distinct problem sets on each platform — rather than taking a one-size-fits-all approach that they and others in the Jewish community previously had.

In spite of policy shifts at social media companies in recent years toward a more permissive posture, including less strict content moderation and less company-sponsored fact-checking, Huffnagle said that AJC maintains relationships with social media companies and that they have been receptive to and implemented some of the feedback that AJC has offered.

She added that engaging with the tech sector — not just law enforcement and government — is necessary to addressing the society-wide problem of antisemitism. Huffnagle emphasized that she wants to see real change come out of this report — not just a compilation of data and unfulfilled recommendations.

She acknowledged that the survey likely includes a blindspot when it comes to TikTok because AJC only surveyed adults, and the platform is highly popular among younger teens.

The survey found that a majority of American Jews (65%) are concerned that artificial intelligence chatbots will spread antisemitism, and 69% were concerned that information produced by AI will fuel antisemitic incidents.

AI, Huffnagle said, poses both “novel problems” as well as “helpful solutions.” It can both create and amplify antisemitic content, but can also help moderate content, particularly as platforms are scaling back on human moderators. But, she said, using AI for moderation can’t currently keep up with the pace of antisemitic content.

“It can be used for good. I see it. It’s just not nearly as efficient and sufficient to meet how it’s being used for bad,” Huffnagle said.

Deutch said another concern is that, without proper policies and transparency from social media companies, platforms may devolve into a “war … between the AI that’s targeting us and the AI that’s trying to protect us.”

Deutch and Huffnagle’s conversation with JI came on the same day that a jury ruled that Meta and YouTube were negligent in their design of their platforms, awarding a plaintiff $3 million, a landmark case finding that social media platforms are responsible for their platforms’ impacts on their users.

“The one conclusion that I think everyone should draw from these headlines is that the courts have now ruled that there is responsibility to the customer,” Deutch said. “The tech companies acknowledge that. They wouldn’t have their community standards if they weren’t worried about what’s happening to their users. … It’s time for these community standards to be enforced.”

One of the co-founders of the Track AIPAC account and website that has gone viral in online anti-Israel circles is a former campaign staffer for a series of far-left lawmakers, she revealed in an interview on Wednesday. The group’s founders had previously remained anonymous.

Cory Archibald, who founded the Citizens Against AIPAC Corruption PAC before merging with Track AIPAC, described herself in an interview with the “Breaking Points” podcast as a former campaign staffer for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and former Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), all members of the anti-Israel Squad.

Casey Kennedy, Archibald’s other co-founder, said in the interview that numerous members of Congress have reached out to the group to start a dialogue.

The Track AIPAC founders also said that they plan to expand their efforts to tracking individual pro-Israel donors’ political spending generally.

Asked about accusations that it is antisemitic to demand, as Track AIPAC does, that AIPAC register as a foreign lobbying organization — given that AIPAC’s members and leadership are American citizens and do not take direction from the Israeli government — the two did not directly address the issue.

“I would say it is not antisemitic to stand against an ongoing genocide that’s being perpetrated with American backing,” Kennedy responded.

The Track AIPAC account has also faced criticism for a range of extremist posts and comments, such as one recent post criticizing Israeli-American citizen and IDF soldier Itay Chen, who was killed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and whose body was taken hostage for more than two years.

“Itay Chen was an American-Israeli citizen who chose to join the Israeli military to partake in ethnic cleansing and genocide abroad,” the account posted on X, in response to a post from Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) honoring the release of Chen’s remains last week.

The co-founders said in the interview that the criteria for receiving an endorsement from their group, which has thus far endorsed around three dozen Senate and House candidates, include commitments to rejecting support from AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel, the Republican Jewish Coalition and various other pro-Israel groups; supporting the recognition of Palestinian statehood; “enforcing the Leahy laws to make sure that we’re not sending weapons to be used in war crimes” and overturning the Citizens United decision.

The PAC raised $139,000 between January and the end of June.