Daily Kickoff
Good Friday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we report on Sen. J.D. Vance’s refusal to criticize Tucker Carlson over the right-wing commentator’s praise of a Holocaust denier and cover Gov. Tim Walz’s comments that anti-Israel activists in Michigan “are speaking out for all the right reasons.” We also report on former President Donald Trump’s virtual speech at the RJC’s annual conference yesterday, explore the implications of the U.S. indictment of top Hamas official Khaled Meshaal, who lives in Qatar,and look at how prosecutors in progressive strongholds are dealing with anti-Israel activists who run afoul of the law. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Guy Sasson, Dana Bash and Michel Barnier.
For less-distracted reading over the weekend, browse this week’s edition of The Weekly Print, a curated print-friendly PDF featuring a selection of recent Jewish Insider and eJewishPhilanthropy stories, including: The debate over institutional neutrality on college campuses; The high-stakes battle over understanding Palestinian public opinion in Israel; Emhoff, D.C. Jewish community mourn Hersh Goldberg-Polin and other murdered hostages; and University of Illinois reaches agreements to protect Jewish students, resolving antisemitism probe. Print the latest edition here.
What We’re Watching
- Today is the deadline given by Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) to the FAA to respond to a letter the New York Republican sent last week asking the agency to disclose its guidance to and conversations with U.S. airlines regarding halted flights to Israel. Read our story from earlier this week here.
- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is in Israel today, where she’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, among other officials.
What You Should Know
Amid all the hype about the impact of the anti-Israel left in Democratic primaries in this year’s elections, the significance of the much larger Jewish and pro-Israel vote is getting overlooked as the general election draws closer, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
In fact, Jewish voters could be a determining factor in who wins the presidency, the control of the Senate and the House majority — given their sizable representation in some of the most consequential states and congressional districts in the country.
A sizable share of those voters who prioritize Israel and antisemitism as top issues have become disillusioned with far-left elements of the Democratic Party — especially since Oct. 7 — and have the potential to impact the outcome in a number of closely contested races. At the same time, far-right associations with antisemitic figures will make it harder for the GOP to make inroads with Jewish voters.
Any discussion about the importance of the Jewish vote has to start in Pennsylvania, which looks like the biggest battleground on the presidential map. Jewish voters make up about 3% of the population in the state. Pennsylvania is featuring a critical Senate race, between Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Republican Dave McCormick, that will help determine which party holds the majority.
And while national polls have shown a clear majority of Jewish voters remaining in the Democratic camp, several high-quality battleground polls have shown notable movement among Jewish voters away from Vice President Kamala Harris.
Teach Coalition, a group run by the Orthodox Union, commissioned a poll with Honan Strategy Group last month on Jewish voters in Pennsylvania. It found that Harris was only leading former President Donald Trump by 11 points (52-41%) among Jewish voters — well below the 72% that President Joe Biden received among Jews in the state, according to the 2020 AP/Fox News voter analysis.
The poll also found a sizable undecided vote in the Senate race, where Casey led McCormick among Jewish voters, 47-32%, but with 21% unsure or declining to say. That margin is a lot narrower than the typical Democratic voting advantage with Jewish voters.
The latest CNN poll out of Pennsylvania shows the presidential race tied; the state is close to a must-win for the Harris campaign. Holding their comfortable margins with Jewish voters is close to a necessity for Democrats if they want to hang on in the Keystone State.
The Maryland Senate race, which is surprisingly close in such a deep-blue state, is also one where the state’s large Jewish community should have an impact. Former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan is aggressively campaigning on his support for Israel and outspokenness against antisemitism in hopes of winning over a liberal-minded constituency that typically backs Democrats by overwhelming margins.
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, in a sign of the significance of the state’s Jewish vote, held three events alone last week with the state’s Jewish community.
The battle for control of the House will also be disproportionately fought in some of the most Jewish constituencies in the country. To hold their majority, Republicans need to play defense in districts that Biden carried but where moderates (including many Jewish voters) swung towards the Republicans in last year’s midterms.
Two of the biggest toss-up races are in districts where nearly one-fifth of the electorate is Jewish, according to analysts — a Westchester County seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and a Long Island seat held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY). Biden comfortably carried both districts in 2020, but Republicans have made inroads since then, in part because of growing support in the Jewish community.
Lawler is facing former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), who has courted Jewish voters in his campaign and received plaudits in the Jewish community for endorsing Democrat George Latimer, the Westchester County executive, in his successful primary campaign against Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).
D’Esposito is facing Democrat Laura Gillen, an attorney with a moderate record as a former Hempstead town supervisor. He narrowly defeated her in 2022, in a district that Biden carried by double digits.
A recent Teach Coalition poll of the six competitive New York congressional districts in the state found Harris leading Trump among Jewish voters, 56-37%. Democrats led Republicans on the generic ballot among Jewish voters in those districts, 57-34%. Biden won 63% of the New York State Jewish vote in 2020, according to the AP/Fox voter analysis.
Of the 22 House races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, five are in districts with among the largest Jewish constituencies in the country. It’s another statistic underscoring the outsized influence Jewish voters will have in the general election.
The other toss-up races where the Jewish vote will play a key role: Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-AZ) in suburban Phoenix, defending his seat against Democratic former state Rep. Amish Shah; Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), running against Democratic attorney Josh Riley; and Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) in central New Jersey, running against Democrat Sue Altman, a progressive political organizer.
charged debate
How deep-blue cities are prosecuting — or not — law-breaking activists

In April, protesters on U.S. 101 in San Francisco shut down the Golden Gate Bridge and I-880 in nearby Oakland to protest Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza. Traffic was blocked for hours. The story of the two simultaneous protests diverges when it comes to the consequences the protesters on each highway are now facing. In August, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins charged 26 people with false imprisonment, trespassing and other charges, alleging that they forcibly kept drivers on the Golden Gate Bridge for more than four hours. Meanwhile, Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price has not filed charges against any of the protesters who shut down I-880. Their disparate handling of the similar incidents reflects their different approaches to prosecuting crime — and offers a window into how different law enforcement officials have dealt with rising antisemitism since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks last year and anti-Israel protests that have at times veered into unlawfulness, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
At their discretion: Even when protesters break the law, like on the Golden Gate Bridge and I-880 in Oakland, what happens to them next — and what consequences they might face for their actions — can vary widely. Prosecutors have discretion in deciding when to bring charges and how severe the charges will be. Sometimes it’s a question of capacity. Often, though, it’s a question of values. Progressive prosecutors like Price were elected on the promise that they would be more discerning in deciding which cases warrant prosecution. Since Oct. 7, some Jewish constituents represented by prosecutors who have adopted a soft-on-crime approach are frustrated by what they see as a lack of enforcement and accountability.