The latest round of fundraising reports for members of Congress paints a concerning picture about the future of the ideological center. Many lawmakers from both parties known for their pragmatism and moderation struggled to raise big bucks for their campaigns, while a number of insurgent candidates on the left and the right wings of their parties scored significant fundraising hauls.

Some of the middling fundraising numbers from experienced, establishment-oriented lawmakers will lead to speculation they are considering retirement. 

On the GOP side, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), a senator deeply immersed in national security issues, only raised $723,000 in the last three months — barely inching past two of her Democratic opponents. That’s an underwhelming sum for Ernst, who has typically been a strong fundraiser but has been taking heat from both the right and left. It will only raise speculation about her political future.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), facing a primary challenge from right-wing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, also didn’t hit the $1 million mark in fundraising, bringing in just $804,000. Paxton, despite worries about his electability and scandals surrounding him, raised $2.9 million.

In the House, Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX), the respected former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, raised just $93,000 for the quarter, with less than $100,000 in his campaign account. While he’s not in a competitive district, that small sum has raised retirement speculation as well.

On the Democratic side, there were some fresh signs that mainstream, pro-Israel candidates aren’t getting quite the same fundraising traction as they have in the past.  

We noted earlier in these pages that in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary, pro-Israel stalwart Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), was outraised by both state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Abdul el-Sayed, an outspoken anti-Israel voice.

In the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), the two Democratic candidates running as progressive critics of Israel — Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh — outdistanced state Sen. Laura Fine, a strong supporter of Israel in the state Legislature.

There were some encouraging signs from several moderate Democrats in high-profile races: Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) outraised progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, $1.47 million to $917,000, in the Minnesota Senate race. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), a suburban congressman with a generally pro-Israel record, led the Illinois Senate field in fundraising. And Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), a battle-tested pragmatic lawmaker, raised a solid $1.8 million without much primary opposition in the New Hampshire Senate race.

But the party’s biggest fundraisers remain the true-blue left-wingers: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) raised a whopping $5.8 million in the last three months as she receives more and more presidential buzz. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), despite not even running for reelection next year, brought in more than $4.5 million in the second quarter. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), by comparison, raised less than half of AOC’s second quarter total — at $2.37 million. And Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who isn’t in cycle until 2028, brought in just $155,000 to his campaign account.