A strong anti-incumbent mood is apparent in the electorate, based on primary results from North Carolina and Texas’ congressional primaries Tuesday night. Meanwhile, one sitting Democratic lawmaker who lost support from AIPAC is narrowly fending off a challenge from a virulently anti-Israel challenger who campaigned in the closing days of the primary against the Iran war. 

Big picture: There’s a deep skepticism of the political establishment throughout the country within both parties. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), a center-right hawk who was one of the stars of the 2018 GOP freshman class, badly lost to state Rep. Steve Toth, a right-wing challenger backed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). 

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is doing a bit better than public polls suggested, but still is only polling in the low 40s against MAGA-aligned Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a race that’s headed to a runoff.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who has been enmeshed in scandal after his extramarital affair with a staffer, who later died by suicide, became public, is leading social media influencer Brandon Herrera, but is also only polling in the low-40s and will also be headed to a runoff. 

On the Democratic side, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC), who was boosted to office in 2022 with AIPAC support but has since grown more critical of Israel, is clinging to a one-point lead (49-48%) over Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who would have become one of the most anti-Israel lawmakers in Congress if she was elected. Allam was backed by the far-left Justice Democrats and received support from a new super PAC attempting to elect anti-Israel lawmakers.

The Iran war may have played a key role in the primary. Foushee won the early vote by an eight-point margin, but Allam carried the Election Day vote by six points — after airing an ad blasting the war in Iran and baselessly accusing the United States of targeting civilians. 

And in a member-against-member Democratic primary in Texas, Rep. Al Green (D-TX), one of the most left-wing members of Congress who has been a reliable vote against Israel, is narrowly trailing newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX), a more mainstream Democrat. Menefee looks like the favorite, but is short of the 50% necessary to avoid a runoff. 

Meanwhile, former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is on track to reclaim his old suburban Dallas seat, unseating Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX) in the process. But he’s likely heading to a runoff as well. 

All told, pro-Israel Democrats can express a bit of relief toward Tuesday night’s primary results. Assuming Foushee holds on to victory, it blocks the path of a Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) prototype from getting elected to Congress. If Allam prevailed, she could have held that safely Democratic seat — and an anti-Israel platform — for many years. 

And Menefee’s advantage against Green in Texas is undoubtedly a win for Jewish voters, potentially replacing an anti-Israel detractor with a stronger ally (if he holds on in the runoff).

On the negative side, the successor to Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the House is expected to be Frederick Haynes III, the congresswoman’s pastor who delivered a scathing sermon against Israel one day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack against the Jewish state. Haynes was backed by Justice Democrats and an anti-Israel group (IMEU Policy Project), but didn’t have much serious primary competition. 

The highest-profile race of the night was Crockett’s Senate primary campaign against state Rep. James Talarico. Talarico prevailed, defeating Crockett 53-46%, with most votes counted. Talarico is hoping to emerge as a sleeper candidate in red-state Texas, and some Democrats believe he has an outside chance of succeeding — especially if he faces the scandal-plagued Paxton.

A few general election showdowns also now look set: Rep. Don Davis (D-NC), drawn into a tougher district, will face a rematch against Republican retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout this year. And Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), drawn into a more Republican district, will face Republican attorney Eric Flores — in a key bellwether race of whether Republicans will be able to maintain their recent inroads with Hispanic voters. 

Based on the latest wave of Democratic primary results, it’s looking more likely that the hard-left “resistance” faction of the Democratic Party, which was muted in the aftermath of the 2024 election, is reasserting itself in a consequential way — especially in the deep-blue cities that make up much of the party’s voting base. 

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s come-from-behind victory in the New York City mayor’s primary was a major wake-up-call for party leadership. His success came after a surge of progressive discontent with the Democratic establishment, a sentiment fueled by the Trump administration’s aggressive (and at times, unlawful) deportation push, the imposition of tariffs and the general sense that party leaders in Washington weren’t doing everything they could to oppose President Donald Trump’s polarizing policies.

The reason the Democratic Party brand is polling at historic lows is because a sizable share of younger, progressive voters are expressing their discontent with their own party leadership — even as most still plan to vote Democratic in a general election. We’re seeing the growth of the left-wing faction within the party, in real time. 

The fact that Mamdani’s radical views on the economy, crime and antisemitism did little to dissuade a critical mass of rank-and-file Democrats is a sign of the changing mood of the party. 

That same dynamic that drove New York City Democrats was apparent in the first round of results in Seattle’s local primaries Tuesday night. 

In the early returns from the city’s all-party primary, moderate incumbents — serving as mayor, city attorney and council president — were all trailing left-wing challengers. The moderate city officials were elected in 2021, largely as a backlash to the crime, homelessness and disorder in the city under progressive leaders. 

In the most high-profile race, Mayor Bruce Harrell is trailing progressive activist Katie Wilson, 46-45%. “Wilson’s campaign generated new excitement when Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, won the mayoral primary in New York City in June,” Seattle’s NPR affiliate reported. 

In Washington, the primary results aren’t determinative; the top two vote-getters compete against each other in the general election. But they suggest moderates will be facing an uphill battle against left-wing insurgents.

The same dynamic is at play in Minneapolis, where conventionally liberal Mayor Jacob Frey decisively lost the Democratic Party endorsement to a democratic socialist state senator, Omar Fateh. 

Frey still can win reelection in November, when all candidates appear on the general election ballot regardless of party, but the rebuke from the Democratic delegates is another sign that the party is facing a revolt from its left-wing activists.

Right now, this looks more like the party of Bernie Sanders, Mamdani and AOC. Those are the candidates that are energizing the grassroots and driving social media engagement— especially when it comes to the party’s urban voters. 

These results send a strong signal that the Democratic Party vibes have shifted. In the first few months of Trump’s second term, party leaders were desperately trying to distance themselves from the ideological baggage of the left. More recently, they’re coming to terms with the possibility that the left is taking over the party.