Ohio was once a perennial swing state but, as Democrats have lost ground with working-class voters, it has been a Republican stronghold over the last decade. But it could once again emerge as a political bellwether in 2026, as a test of whether Democrats can make inroads in rebuilding a coalition that can win back national power.

If Democrats want to have hope of regaining the confidence of the silent majority that propelled President Donald Trump to victory in 2024, they’ll need to be able to compete in the Buckeye State. And if Democrats hope to have any outside shot at retaking a Senate majority, the path runs through Ohio as well. 

The state is holding two major races: appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) is facing off against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who lost his reelection in 2024. Early polling shows the race is competitive. Of note: Brown significantly outraised Husted in fundraising over the last three months of the year, $7.3 million to $1.5 million, and already has more cash-on-hand than the sitting senator.

Brown had been the only statewide Democratic politician to maintain some support with the blue-collar voters that drifted away from the party in the Trump era. Husted, the state’s former lieutenant governor and secretary of state, is a traditional Republican politician with a party-line voting record but is facing the prospect of rough political headwinds this year for the GOP.

And in an open gubernatorial race to succeed the term-limited GOP Gov. Mike DeWine, Democrat Amy Acton is facing off against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, two candidates whose time spent in public service and politics have been quite polarizing.  

Acton, who was head of the state’s Department of Health during the COVID pandemic, ended up leaving the role early amid a chorus of conservative complaints about her heavy-handed approach to coronavirus regulations and safety protocols. Acton, who is Jewish, is hoping her medical background and role as a political outsider will matter more than the polarizing public health controversies. 

Ramaswamy, who made an unlikely jump to presidential politics in 2024 after a career as a biotech entrepreneur, alienated a number of Republicans for his anti-establishment and isolationist messaging during the campaign. But his gubernatorial campaign has tacked more to the center, as he has spoken out against white nationalists within the GOP during his campaign.  His newfound pragmatism helped him receive this month the endorsement of DeWine, who had been an occasional critic. 

In the Trump era, Ohio has become solidly Republican, giving Trump an 11-point margin of victory in 2024. But the state’s Senate races have been somewhat more competitive: Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) defeated Brown by just three points (50-47%) in the same year, while now-Vice President JD Vance prevailed by six points in his 2022 campaign. Both those elections took place in favorable GOP years, while 2026 is shaping up to be more hospitable for Democrats as the party that’s out of power. 

In the big picture, winning Ohio is a necessity if Democrats want to entertain any hopes of retaking the Senate. They need to net four GOP-held Senate seats to retake the majority, and only North Carolina and Maine are currently toss-up races. Among other GOP-held seats, Ohio is the next-closest opportunity and Brown is the strongest recruit they have in the red-state races. (Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate candidacy is the other big red-state recruit worth watching.)

More importantly, the Ohio contests will test how partisan voters really are, at a time when Trump is testing the patience of some of his working-class supporters. Persuadable Ohio voters are still anxious about the state of the economy, haven’t seen a return of manufacturing jobs back in the state and are receptive to criticism that the administration is focusing more abroad at the expense of domestic concerns back home. 

If the Trump coalition is able to hold together, Republicans should be able to ride the partisan tide to victory in Ohio — even if the party faces a down year in 2026. But if there really is a schism taking place within the GOP, the blue-collar states where Democrats until recently experienced success could end up becoming battleground territory once again. 

Ohio is ground zero for testing that scenario.