The headlines in the Hebrew media, on the eve of President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East this week, played up what some see as an emerging rift between Israel and the U.S. “Concerns in Israel: The deals will hurt the qualitative [military] edge,” read one. A weekend magazine cover assessed Israel’s relationship with the Trump administration as going “from volatile to depreciable.” 

The sources of anxiety in Israel are summed up by a lead headline of one Hebrew weekend newspaper: “The disputes with the Trump administration about Gaza, Iran and Saudi Arabia are increasing.” The Trump administration has already made a truce with the Houthis and cut a deal with Hamas to release Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander — without Israel — and the concern in Jerusalem is that more surprises — good and bad — may be on the way.  

Yet insiders in both the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government speaking to Jewish Insider in recent days on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters took a more sanguine view of the delicate diplomacy, saying that there is no rift, even if there are disagreements. 

Sources in Jerusalem pointed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s two visits to the White House in Trump’s first 100 days in office, as well as Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer’s meeting with the president last week. 

A Trump administration source said the relationship remains positive and close, but also criticized Israel for not adapting to the president’s transactional approach to foreign policy. Gulf states are likely to announce major investments in the U.S. during Trump’s visit, while Israel has largely been asking the administration for help. Jerusalem could be putting a greater emphasis on jobs created by U.S.-Israel cooperation in the defense and technological sectors when they speak with Trump, the source suggested.

Shira Efron, research director at the Israel Policy Forum, also pointed to Netanyahu and Dermer’s meetings with Trump, saying “which country gets that treatment? … I don’t see other countries getting this. I just don’t buy [reports of a rift]. To me, there are indications that the alliance is still there and there are still deep ties.”

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, dismissed concerns that Trump did not include Israel on his trip to the region. 

Trump “speaks ‘Middle East’ intuitively,” Diker said. “He wants to convey a message to the Saudis that he is coming to see them, and not coming representing Israel … He wants to signal that he’s not there on behalf of Israel. That doesn’t mean he’s going against Israel.”

Still, similar to how Israeli officials were kept in the dark about a ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis until Trump announced it to the world, Efron said that Israelis are “totally unsure what Trump’s big announcement is going to be and what the diplomatic outcomes of the trip are going to be.” 

“It could just be news of big investment deals, transactional deals by Gulf states … to show that they want to get into his good graces. We all know it’s going to happen. Maybe there will be a sword dance,” she quipped.

Trump confirmed on Sunday that Qatar would be providing a plane worth $400 million for his use for the coming years. The plane’s ownership is expected to be transferred to the Trump Presidential Library Foundation after the president’s term in office. 

In addition, Trump’s son Eric recently advanced real estate and cryptocurrency deals in the countries the president is set to visit this week. 

Diker noted that Trump campaigned on ending wars, and said he “seems frustrated” to not have had success doing so in Ukraine or Gaza.

“The challenge is that Israel’s timing and [Trump’s] timing are different,” Diker said. “He saw the original [Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff deal to bring back 35 hostages to Israel” — in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners — “as a big win, but this is the Middle East, where the way things look is more important than what’s happening on the ground.”

The Trump administration has been trying to push a postwar plan to design a “Riviera of the Middle East” while Israel is hitting Gaza with a new military offensive — at odds with the Trump administration’s preference to wind down the fighting and promote regional harmony.

Diker said that Netanyahu and Dermer must continue to emphasize the need to defeat Hamas in Gaza.

“If Hamas is not viewed as losing right now, because they still have hostages and are still in control of humanitarian aid that they are keeping for their own terrorists, then the perception is they are still winning the war … Victory means removing Hamas from power … Ultimately, that message of victory or loss will echo throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world … The only way to beat them is to destroy them,” Diker said.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced on Friday that the U.S. has taken over efforts to find a solution for providing humanitarian aid to Gaza without it getting into Hamas’ hands, after United Nations agencies rejected Israeli involvement in the matter.

Efron said that, following meetings with leaders in Qatar — which hosts Hamas leaders — but also in other Arab capitals where the leaders do not support Hamas but want the war in Gaza to end, “there could be a statement from the Trump administration that forces Israel’s hand to do something it doesn’t want.”

“Anything about Gaza that is not fully coordinated with Israel will be things Israel won’t be happy to hear, even if there is an alliance,” she added. “[Trump] will hear how the Saudis and Emiratis see Gaza and hear about [the push for a] ceasefire from the Qataris.” 

Diker expressed concern that Qatar would pressure Trump to set up a pathway to a Palestinian state. Recent reports in Arab media have said that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman also plans to ask Trump to recognize a Palestinian state. However, Huckabee denied that the president would do so.

“There is no support in Israel for any kind of Palestinian state after Oct. 7,” Diker said.

There are also concerns in Israel about the U.S. and Saudi Arabia reaching a deal allowing Riyadh to start a civilian nuclear enrichment program without normalization with Israel, which was once a precondition.  

Israel’s opposition leader, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, said last week that he had been warning against such a scenario for years, and called it “incomprehensible that Netanyahu is quiet while a deal is being made that will lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and can lead to nuclear capabilities falling into the wrong hands.”

Efron said that “if [a Saudi deal] came with normalization with Israel, we could have said we’ll take the risk because of the big benefit — but there is no normalization agreement. We’re missing the peace train.” 

At the same time, Efron noted that if the U.S. does not work with the Saudis, Riyadh can turn to other actors to advance a nuclear program, such as China or Pakistan.

Diker said that “Trump wants a deal so he can pursue an economically stable, more secure and prosperous Middle East together with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. They want Israel to be a part of that, but it requires ending the [war] in Gaza,” and as such the leaders could proceed without Israel. 

When it comes to U.S. nuclear talks with Iran, which continued on Sunday, Efron noted that there have been mixed messages coming from the administration as to whether Iran would be able to maintain some ability to enrich uranium.

“If there is daylight,” between the U.S. and Israel, Efron said, “it’s about the deal, because there seems to be an assessment on the Israeli side that because both sides, the Iranians and Americans, really want a deal, it is more likely than not that they will reach one.”

Efron warned that in light of the “limited technical capacity” of Witkoff’s team, which does not include nonproliferation experts or even translators, and the two-month deadline the president put on the talks, “they may want a bigger, better, stronger deal, but it’s hard to say, given the state of the Iranian nuclear program, how that can happen.”

In addition, she said, “the Israelis complained [that the 2015 Iran nuclear deal] did not deal with Iranian proxies or its missile program — this doesn’t seem to touch those components, either.”

Diker, however, said that the Saudi crown prince and Trump are “aligned on a regional vision for a much-improved version of the Middle East based on the neutralization of the Iranian nuclear program one way or another,” and that vision also includes “eliminating ballistic missile development and stopping [Iran] from funding regional proxies.”

“I highly doubt the Iranians will accept all the demands,” Diker said, “and from the Israeli point of view, the time for demands has long passed.”

If there is a deal between the U.S. and Iran, Israel will have to decide whether to launch “an unprecedented operation to hit [Iranian] nuclear sites,” he added.

Broadly, Diker said that Trump is taking the approach articulated in his book The Art of the Deal in Middle East diplomacy.

“This isn’t typical Middle East diplomacy. This is Trump. It’s out-of-the-box thinking. The approach is to show support for allies, but to also keep allies in a state of uncertainty,” Diker said. “That is the context. There are no guarantees, but his record on Israel is very good. When you put the puzzle pieces together, it is advantageous to Israel.”