Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) expressed confidence on Thursday that Saudi Arabia is intent on maintaining its status as a moderating force in the Middle East amid growing concerns that Riyadh is entertaining more hardline Islamism.

Graham met on Thursday morning with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud in Washington and spoke by phone on Wednesday with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. The South Carolina senator sat down with Jewish Insider on Thursday afternoon for a wide-ranging discussion, where he said that, despite feeling unsettled by some Saudi conduct, he is not concerned that the kingdom is making a pivot toward a more extremist posture, as some in the region and the Jewish community have worried.

Graham had earlier this week publicly criticized the kingdom for its growing conflict with the United Arab Emirates and what he described as a failure to act to protect the Syrian Kurds against Syrian government advances.

“After having met with the Saudis today, I understand their concerns better. I don’t agree with everything they’ve done, but I fundamentally believe that the vision is still the same,” Graham told JI. “To all those who think like me and have been upset by what you’ve heard, I understand why you’re upset, but I would just say this: If I feel good, you should feel good.”

Once a vocal critic of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman — particularly in the aftermath of the 2018 murder of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi — Graham said that MBS’ grand economic and development plan, Vision 2030, convinced him that the Saudi government is interested in development, peace and deradicalization, because those factors would be incompatible with MBS’ plan.

“If the man is willing to spend a trillion dollars to make Saudi Arabia a destination of choice, he’s got to be smart enough to know that the old model of the Mideast has to be replaced,” he said of the crown prince.

Graham said claims that Vision 2030 had stalled were “overstated” and dismissed the notion that the Saudis were struggling financially, despite flagging oil prices. The kingdom recently announced plans to significantly scale back the flagship Vision 2030 project and the futuristic megacity Neom.

“They’ve had 97 projects, 94 are on target,” Graham said of Vision 2030. “This idea that Saudi Arabia is running out of money is bulls**t. Every time you fill up your car, they appreciate it. … They’re not abandoning their 2030 model. Has anybody in Turkey talked about a 2030 model?”

The South Carolina senator, a leading advocate for U.S. strikes against the Iranian regime, also said he expects that action against the Islamic Republic is still forthcoming, arguing that the United States’ credibility is on the line after President Donald Trump promised protesters that the U.S. would assist them.

Graham framed the protests and their ultimate outcome as a tipping point for the region and the world.

“[Trump] said, ‘Keep protesting. Help is on the way.’ That is his Ronald Reagan moment. You have to follow through,” Graham said, referring to Reagan’s demand for the Berlin Wall to be torn down, and arguing that there is now a clock running for the U.S. to take action.

“Regime change is being led by the people. The question is: Are you for the ayatollah or the people? Donald Trump said, ‘I’ll be with the people.’ Well, that means you’ve got to be with the people,” he added. “I’d like to find a solution without conflict. I don’t know what that would be, but I am confident that it can’t go on forever. There’ll come a point where the people lose hope. We’re not there yet, but the sooner we can demonstrate help is on the way, the better.”

If the U.S. fails to follow through, Graham warned, “It’s going to make Afghanistan look like a cakewalk.”

“Everybody’s gonna hedge their bets. Nobody will follow America. Nobody will trust the idea that, you know, making peace is good. It will set the region back 100 years,” he continued.

And, Graham argued, the fall of the Iranian regime is a precondition for any further progress toward regional normalization.

“Nobody in their right mind can talk about normalization in the Mideast until we know how the protests end in Iran,” Graham said. “If, in fact, the ayatollah is still standing after all this bluster and rhetoric, normalization is lost for decades.”

But if the regime falls, bringing its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis down with it, Graham asserted that normalization would be easy to achieve, adding, “If you could sink the mothership, the ripple effect changes Lebanon and Syria.”

Graham said that, from everything he knows about Trump, he expects the president to follow through on his promise to the protesters. He added that he expects the U.S., and potentially Israel, to deliver a “bigger” hit to the regime now than they might have if they struck several weeks ago when the protests began.

“I will judge the president by what he says and what he does. I have no reason to believe that he will not fulfill the promises he’s made. His track record is pretty good. He doesn’t want conflict, but he won’t be trifled with,” Graham said.

Trump’s vacillating threats to the regime, and the lack of U.S. action following a crackdown that officials said has quelled the recent protests, have created uncertainty about how the U.S. plans to proceed. Media reports and public comments by Trump indicated that the administration was interested in reopening negotiations with Tehran, but over the last week, Trump has gradually amped up threats of a military strike against Iran amid continued intransigence from Tehran. 

Graham said that the Islamic Republic should accept any offers of diplomacy from the U.S., but that he’s not surprised the regime hasn’t been amenable, describing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “religious Nazi.”

He expects that a U.S. campaign would involve “enough lethality to make the people who live without fear live with fear, to make those who are killing the people … wonder if maybe they’ll wake up dead tomorrow.” He said the U.S. would also maintain economic pressure on Iran.

“If whatever we do doesn’t inspire the people and put some fear in the regime, we’ve made a mistake,” he continued.

Still, he emphasized that he does not expect a U.S. invasion of Iran.

Graham rejected concerns that Khamenei could be replaced by someone equally radical if removed from power.

“Most likely, the day after in Iran, if the ayatollah falls, is a long road back to a more accommodating Iran that wants to be prosperous,” Graham said. “Why would you double down on the things that got you in this? … Now, it won’t be Jeffersonian democracy, but it’ll be something we can live with.”

The GOP senator also said that he supports the approach in a post-regime Iran outlined Wednesday by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which would likely involve a transfer of power to others inside the Iranian government, potentially within its military, if the ayatollah falls — akin to the approach the U.S. took in Venezuela.

“We’re not going to do the Iraq thing where we fire everybody,” Graham said. “We’re going to trust the people taking over to understand that the old ways have got to go. If you want to perpetuate the old ways, you’re not going to make it. … To the people taking over in Iran, if you act like the ayatollah, we’ll bomb you too.”

Graham, together with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), introduced legislation on Thursday, the Save the Kurds Act, that aims to largely re-implement the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, repealed by Congress in December amid pressure from the Trump administration.

Graham was a longstanding skeptic of unconditional sanctions relief, without snapback measures, for the Syrian regime, and the new legislation comes in response to advances on territory run by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S.’ primary allies in Syria in the war against ISIS.

In a reversal of current U.S. policy, the bill would sanction Syrian government officials and financial institutions, and any foreign individuals who engage in any transaction with the Syrian government, as well as re-designating Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the faction that Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa led, as a terrorist organization.

The administration would be able to suspend the sanctions if the Syrian government stops all attacks on the SDF, but would be required to immediately reimpose them if attacks resume.

Softening his rhetoric from earlier in the week, Graham told JI he’s optimistic that Saudi Arabia wants to deal as an honest broker to decrease tensions between al-Sharaa’s government and the Kurds — something he said was not the case with Turkey — and urged Saudi officials to maintain that approach. 

He said that he’s very concerned about al-Sharaa, after he “gave him a chance,” warning that failing to protect the Kurds would ultimately lead to a situation in Syria as bad or worse than under the former Assad regime.

“If we let radical Arab groups and [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan eliminate the Kurds, nobody would ever follow America again,” Graham warned. “‘One Syria’ cannot be accomplished through the threat of the gun.”

Graham made waves in Washington and Jerusalem earlier this month with comments that he wanted to quickly wind down U.S. aid to Israel, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he wants to wean the Jewish state off of U.S. financial assistance in the next decade.

He promptly traveled to Israel to discuss the matter of future U.S. aid and Israel’s plans for Iran with Netanyahu and top Israeli defense officials. Following a meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem, tensions seem to have cooled, with Graham saying he “understand[s] better what he’s saying” despite the two not being totally aligned.

He said that his concern has been that U.S. aid to Israel has been a strong investment that has paid dividends for the U.S., while Netanyahu is concerned with being perceived as a burden on the U.S. — though Graham maintained that ending aid will do nothing to placate anti-Israel voices in the U.S.

Graham said that Netanyahu had a “very, I think, clever way of modernizing the weapons systems to our mutual benefit that’s different than aid, so I was impressed,” adding, “I’d like to be a partner with” Israel’s technological developments.

Many analysts believe that the future of U.S.-Israel cooperation lies more in co-produced and jointly developed programs than in direct financial assistance from the U.S. to Israel, and such programs have been growing in recent years.

Lawmakers in Washington are largely downplaying recent developments suggesting that Saudi Arabia is pivoting away from moderation and entertaining more hardline Islamism.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been at loggerheads in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen — including a recent Saudi airstrike on an Emirati shipment in southern Yemen — prompting questions about Riyadh’s continued interest in acting as a moderating force in the region. 

Saudi Arabia has also sided with Muslim Brotherhood-aligned forces in other regional conflicts, is increasing its business ties with Qatar and softening its stance toward other Islamist powers hostile to Israel, among other steps, some analysts say.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud met with lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, who came away from the meeting indicating that potential disputes or shifts in the kingdom had been overstated.

Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) — who has been critical of Saudi Arabia in the past — told Jewish Insider that Prince Faisal, in the meeting, sought to directly rebut claims that Saudi Arabia was pivoting away from a position of moderation.

The overall message from Prince Faisal, Sherman said, was “the Saudis claim that they are anti-Brotherhood and that the disputes with the UAE are tactical, not ideological.”

“Just because the Saudis are not Shiite does not mean they’re Zionists. No one should get too carried away. And I’m sure there are elements of the Saudi government that are not nearly anti-[Muslim] Brotherhood as much as they should be,” Sherman said. “That being said, I see a foreign minister who is not Qatar or Turkey.”

“If you’re worried about Israel, you should never put any of the countries we’re talking about here in the ‘don’t worry about it’ category — you’ve got to worry,” he continued. “But the foreign minister went out of his way to say that when it comes to the Brotherhood or Iran, that there’s less reason to worry about Saudi Arabia.”

He said that he expects Saudi Arabia and the UAE to come to an agreement on the anti-Houthi campaign to deconflict the situation — likely one which would see the UAE take a decreased role in Yemen.

Sherman also said he did not see evidence that Saudi Arabia has significantly accelerated or expanded its relationship with Qatar — though he also noted that Saudi-Qatari tensions have gradually eased over the past few years and particularly since the Arab League blockade of Qatar. Saudi Arabia signed a major deal earlier this month to link Riyadh and Doha with a high-speed rail line. 

Even so, Sherman said he has other pre-existing concerns about Saudi Arabia, such as its pursuit of a nuclear program and bid to purchase F-35 fighter jets, neither of which was discussed at Wednesday’s meeting.

Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also met with Prince Faisal. He said it was “great” to see the foreign minister and that the group had discussed various issues including Yemen, Sudan and Gaza.

“Saudi Arabia and UAE are very close, right? I mean, that’s an understatement,” Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told JI. “What I’m saying — everybody can have disagreements, spats, misunderstandings about different things, and that relationship is no different, but those two are two very, very close allies.”

“The U.S.-Saudi relationship remains a pillar of U.S. policy in the region,” Mast said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing to build upon our decades-old alliance to help resolve some of the region’s most pressing and complex challenges.”

He dismissed concerns about a potential Saudi repositioning or clash with the UAE.

“Saudi Arabia and UAE are very close, right? I mean, that’s an understatement,” Mast told JI in a brief interview. “What I’m saying — everybody can have disagreements, spats, misunderstandings about different things, and that relationship is no different, but those two are two very, very close allies.”

A congressional source deeply involved in Middle East issues argued that ties between the Sudanese Armed Forces — the faction Saudi Arabia is backing in Sudan — and the Muslim Brotherhood have been overstated and that the Saudi decision to back the SAF is a tactical one rather than an ideological signal of alignment with the Brotherhood. The source said that the Saudis have indicated that they are working to push the Brotherhood elements out of the SAF faction.

And, the source emphasized, both sides in Sudan have committed significant atrocities, further noting that the Trump administration sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces — which successive U.S. governments have found is committing genocide. The source said that Saudi Arabian officials have been clear they do not want the U.S. to sanction the UAE over its alleged support for the RSF, as some in Abu Dhabi heard after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit.

Regarding the Saudi strike in Yemen, the source said that Saudi Arabia was concerned about anti-Saudi forces approaching its territory and that the shipment the UAE convoy was transporting was being provided to those forces. 

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) said that there “a lot of concerns” about a Saudi dispute with the UAE in Yemen but that he is not “worried about [the Saudis] repositioning to an extreme point.”

“I don’t think we see that yet. There’s still a lot of conversations going on,” Mullin said. “I think that was just one of those regional things that sometimes we have a lack of understanding — or maybe understand it, but don’t understand it.”

Another lawmaker who has had conversations with individuals in the region said on condition of anonymity that — despite recent headlines — they did not believe that Saudi Arabia was making a fundamental pivot in its posture away from moderation or toward a more extremist Islamist stance.

The lawmaker added that the tensions between the two U.S. partners have been “surprising” but also noted there is a long and complex history between the two countries.

Addressing the Saudi-Emirati tensions, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE), the No. 2 Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, acknowledged that the two countries had conveyed “different interests,” but did not appear concerned that their differences would alter the Saudis’ view of Iran as the top threat in the region. 

“The UAE seems like they’re trying to diversify their sources of support in the region, and that’s a point of some disagreement between the Saudi leadership and UAE leadership,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) told JI.

“I have no insight into what’s going on there, but clearly they’ve got different interests,” Ricketts told JI. “Saudi Arabia’s long-term interest is in a peaceful Middle East where they have allies to offset Iran. Saudi Arabia knows that in the region their worst enemy is Iran, and so they’re going to want allies to push back.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee as well as on Foreign Relations, said his primary concern was the UAE’s deepening ties with Russia.

“I mean, the UAE seems like they’re trying to diversify their sources of support in the region, and that’s a point of some disagreement between the Saudi leadership and UAE leadership,” Cornyn told JI.

“What worries me a little bit is UAE talking about allowing the Russians to build a military base there,” he continued. “They seem to be less convinced that they can rely on support from the United States and so they are looking for other friends. That concerns me.”

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) attributed the fissures to the situation in Sudan and instability in Yemen that neither country could independently solve, but said he had been informed that the Saudis and Emiratis had addressed their differences. 

“Well, Yemen is a mess,” Kennedy said. “The UAE and the Saudis have been allies. Now, they recently got crossways, but I understand they got it worked out. I don’t know what else to say. I mean, Yemen is just, … it’s not a stable country.”

Pressed on the Gulf states having “worked out” their issues, the Louisiana senator responded, “Well, I think that got a lot of it worked out. The Saudis and UAE … they’re crossways in Sudan. They’re not always joined at the hip, so I wasn’t particularly shocked about it, but my understanding is they got it worked out.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he hadn’t been following all of the developments with Saudi Arabia’s regional posture but had been tracking the conflict in Sudan, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been backing opposing sides in the civil war. Warner emphasized that “neither one of them are the good guys,” referring to the UAE-aligned RSF and Saudi-aligned SAF.

“It does bother me, not just where [the Saudis] may be moving, but also just … in terms of bombing [in] Yemen,” Warner added, referring to the Saudi strike.

Warner, who led Intelligence Committee members on a visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2024, said that the Saudis were, at the time, “anxious to get normalization with Israel,” but the Gaza war interrupted that progress.

And Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said the “instability” in the region — including the Saudi-UAE tensions —  demonstrates the need for strong congressional oversight of “any agreement that’s reached with any of our potential partners there.

President Donald Trump recently announced a series of deals with Saudi Arabia, including selling the kingdom F-35 fighter jets and naming Riyadh a major non-NATO ally, without making public strides toward Saudi-Israeli normalization.

“And very bluntly, it reemphasizes that our one truly reliable ally in the Middle East is Israel,” Blumenthal continued.