A new Gallup poll underscores the degree to which Israel’s security is now dependent on support from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, the Jewish state having drained much of its political capital from both Democrats and independents amid the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis.

The numbers are clear: Support for Israel is now becoming a partisan issue after the Jewish state enjoyed decades of bipartisan support in the United States. Anti-Israel activists on the left, looking to exploit the moment, are working to win over Democratic lawmakers to their side — and are finding some unlikely allies moving in their direction amid the sustained pressure.

The data is sobering: Only about one-third of Americans now support Israel’s military action in Gaza, with 60% disapproving. At the beginning of the war, exactly half of Americans supported Israel’s war against Hamas. The drop-off has come entirely from Democrats (36% supported in November 2023, while 8% do now) and independents (47% supported in November 2023 while 25% support now). 

Among Republicans, however, support for Israel’s military efforts has remained significant. The exact same share of Republicans who backed Israel’s war against Hamas in November 2023 (71%) continue to support Israel’s efforts today. Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities has, if anything, bolstered GOP support for Israel and undermined the isolationist and small anti-Israel faction within the party.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close relationship with Trump, a partnership that has led to major policy successes, like the successful, coordinated attacks against Iran’s nuclear program, has nonetheless also played a role in the growing partisanship. Netanyahu, for the first time, is viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans — with Democrats now registering more overt disapproval of the Israeli leader since Trump reentered office.

The Gallup polling shows there was already soft support for Israel among Democrats before the war began, with majorities of Democrats opposed to the Jewish state’s efforts at self-defense just weeks after the Oct. 7 attacks. That said, a clear majority of Democratic lawmakers maintained their support for Israel’s war against Hamas, with only a relatively small faction calling for ceasefires before Hamas’ leadership and terror infrastructure could be degraded.

But there are signs that some of the more mainstream voices are succumbing to the anti-Israel shifts within the party’s base. Over half of Senate Democrats supported a Bernie Sanders-led resolution last night that would block U.S. arms sales to Israel — up from the 15 Democrats who voted for a similar measure back in April.  Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a pragmatic Democratic senator, who was absent for the vote, sounded open to cutting off “offensive” military aid to Israel. Sen. Angus King (I-ME), a pro-Israel independent who caucuses with Democrats, changed his tune and called for ending all military aid to Israel this week.

What’s alarming is how some of this consuming anti-Israel sentiment among Democrats is showing some signs of evolving into, at least, a tolerance of antisemitism. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro received blowback from the left for simply calling out New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani over failing to condemn “globalize the intifada” rhetoric. Slotkin felt the need, while on an anti-Israel podcast, to pander that she’s a Jewish senator who wasn’t backed by Jewish groups. Progressive spaces are becoming increasingly inhospitable to Jews, at least those who don’t renounce their support for a Jewish state.

The many liberal-minded, pro-Israel Jewish Democrats have felt increasingly homeless politically as a result of the shifts within the party — and the accommodation of views that, until very recently, have been beyond the political pale. If the party’s reaction to its 2024 defeat is to tack even further leftward and alienate core parts of their coalition, it could well be lurching towards its own McGovern moment in the future.