As Jerusalem looks warily at the new government in Syria, senior Israeli officials are reportedly supporting efforts by the Russian Army to remain in the war-torn country — an approach, Israeli analysts have warned, that comes with many risks.

Reuters reported last month that Israel has been lobbying the U.S. to allow Russia to maintain military bases in Syria, in an effort to try to keep the country weak and push back against Turkey, which has had a presence in Syria since 2016 and, according to Israel’s Foreign Ministry, controls as much as 15% of Syria via proxies. High-level Israeli diplomats have been in touch with Russian counterparts to discuss the matter, sources in Jerusalem told Jewish Insider. 

Russia, which backed ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad through those bases, is also seeking a deal with Syria’s new ruling party, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, to maintain its presence.

This is all taking place as the U.S. works to formulate its policy on the new Syrian government — and amid a shift away from Washington’s support for Ukraine in the war that began when Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022.

Arkady Mil-Man, the former Israeli ambassador to Russia and head of the Russia program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JI that since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, “Russia clearly supported Hamas and Iran. They have a totally anti-Israel stance. Whoever thinks Russia will be our friend is mistaken.” 

Sophie Kobzantsev, an expert on Russian Middle East policy at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Policy, similarly told JI that Israel “needs to be very careful with Russia. I don’t think they’ll abandon Iran so fast.” [Disclosure: The reporter is also a senior fellow at Misgav.]

Iran and Russia worked closely in Syria, Kobzantsev pointed out, and while Iran may no longer have a foothold there, their cooperation continues in other areas.

In addition, there have been reports that Moscow may play a mediating role between Washington and Tehran in nuclear talks.

If Israel has some leverage over Russia in Syria, it “may be able to use its power to advance its interests in Iran talks,” Kobzantsev said, “but I’m very skeptical about how much Russia can or would want to weaken Iran.”

Kobzantsev explained that from the time Russia entered Syria in 2015, “relations between Israel and Russia with regard to Syria were very organized and clear,” referring to a deconfliction mechanism between the countries. “We may have heard all kinds of complaints from Russia [about Israeli strikes in Syria], but they operated [anti-aircraft] systems and they were not used against Israeli planes, except for one mistake [in which Russia shot at an Israeli jet over Syria] … Israel was able to continue to attack Iranian targets in Syria and arms transfers from Syria to Lebanon.” 

“Israel had a balance of deterrence with Russia when they were in Syria, because our air force is very strong and the Russians didn’t want Israel to undermine their presence there,” she said.

Israel wants Russia in Syria because “we know how to work with the Russians. The security understanding between us is comfortable,” Kobzantsev said.

Mil-Man expressed skepticism about the Israeli approach.

“So what if we’re used to talking to Russia? It doesn’t mean they can make order in Syria,” he said. “Does [keeping Russia in Syria] help our interests and our defense?”

Mil-Man argued that “Russia limited the Israeli Air Force’s freedom of action in Syria. Any attempt to say Russia contributed to something [Israel did] in Syria is a misrepresentation. If Russia wasn’t there, Israel could have bombed wherever it wanted.”

The former ambassador said that over the years, Iran transferred large quantities of weapons to Hezbollah via Russian bases in Syria.

“You cannot trust Russia,” he warned. 

Mil-Man also said that Russian bases will not block Turkish influence in Syria. “Whoever thinks the Russians will block Turkey is causing damage [to Israel]. Russia will not stop Turkey and will not protect Israel’s interests,” he said.

“If Israel wants to reach an equilibrium [in Syria], it needs to talk to Turkey,” he added. “They don’t like Israel, it’s true, but there were times we worked together.” 

Kobzantsev explained that Russia is interested in maintaining a foothold in the Middle East and access to the Mediterranean Sea, which helps it maintain its deterrence against NATO. Russia also views Turkey as a competitor for influence in the Middle East, making it easier for Israel to drive a wedge between the countries, she said.

When Israel was one of only 13 countries that voted against a U.N. General Assembly resolution last month supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and condemning the Russian invasion, Israeli officials told JI that there was heavy pressure from the U.S. to oppose the measure. 

The controversial vote may have also been useful for Israel as a gesture to Russia to improve channels of communication regarding Syria, Kobzantsev said. 

Mil-Man expressed concern that the Trump administration “wants to curry favor with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and accept the Russians’ narrative about Ukraine,” adding that “the Russians are, at their core, anti-American and anti-Western.”  

The former ambassador also criticized the Israeli military and political establishment, which he said has an unwarranted “mythological fear of the Russian bear” that has resulted in obsequious behavior towards Moscow, rather than Israel standing up for its interests.

While most of the West is aligned against Russia, certainly in the context of the Ukraine war, Kobzantsev was less concerned about Israel falling out of step with some of its allies — though not the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

“I think that the world order is changing, and you can’t talk about the West vs. Russia. There are multiple poles, you have the U.S., China, Russia,” she said. 

“The Middle East has its own power,” Kobzantsev added. “Israel is a democracy in the Middle East and we follow international accords like the West, but it is a Middle Eastern player, whether it comes to its coordination with Russia or ambivalent stances with regards to Ukraine. It’s hard to draw such clear lines.” 

As such, she said, Israel must “ensure its own security interests are protected — to maintain demilitarization and a buffer zone — in coordination with the U.S.”